Daniil Medvedev and Corentin Moutet will face off in the final of the Almaty Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.36
Corentin Moutet -> 3.125

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Corentin Moutet

This will be the 3^rd time that Daniil Medvedev and Corentin Moutet play each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Medvedev and Moutet (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they played each other, Moutet won 1-6 6-4 6-4 in the quarter in Washington back in July 2025.

Highlights Corentin Moutet vs Daniil Medvedev – Washington 25-July-2025

Daniil Medvedev

Ranked no. 14, Medvedev reached the final after beating Adam Walton 7-5 7-6(0), Fabian Marozsan 7-5 6-2 and James Duckworth 6-7(8) 6-3 6-2.

In the semifinal against Duckworth, Medvedev recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-7⁸ 6-3 6-2). During the match, Medvedev scored 108 points vs Duckworth’s 86. The Russian was pretty aggressive to blast 47 winners.

Talking about the service games, Medvedev managed to score 15 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Daniil Medvedev was pretty efficient on serve to win 85% (47/55) of his 1st serve and 56% (22/39) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Medvedev broke Duckworth 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Daniil has lost 1 set in this competition to win 56% of the points he played.

Medvedev has a terrific match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (494-203). 6-2 on indoor hard courts in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Medvedev has a composed 124-53 match record in the last years on indoor hard courts.

Daniil’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Halle.

Medvedev has an aggregate 37-21 win-loss record in 2025, 6-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Almaty

Corentin Moutet

Ranked no. 41, Moutet reached the final after defeating Bernard Tomic 6-1 7-6(9), Alexander Shevchenko 7-5 6-3, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-4 7-5 and Alex Michelsen 7-5 6-4.

In the semifinal, Corentin had a good straight sets win against Michelsen (7-5 6-4). During the match Moutet scored 87 points vs Michelsen’s 80. Moutet was very aggressive to blast 40 winners.

About the serving games, Moutet scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Corentin Moutet lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Moutet put 70% of his first serves in, winning 58% (40/69) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Michelsen 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The French player hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

The French player best result of the season was getting to the final in Mallorca.

The French player has an aggregate 38-25 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Medvedev	Moutet
Match played	3	4
Tot Set	7	8
Tot Games	75	85
Pts	259-206	329-288
Total Points	465	617
Winners	131	139
%Winners	51%	42%

Medvedev played 3 matches while Moutet competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Daniil Medvedev conceded 1 set while Corentin Moutet hasn’t conceded a set so far. Medvedev has played 1 set(s) less than Moutet (7 vs 8). Therefore, Medvedev played 10 games less than Moutet. Medvedev scored 131 winners (51% of the total points). On the other side, Corentin blasted 139 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Medvedev	Moutet
Aces	37	14
Avg per match	12.3	3.5
1st in	162/243	216/331
%1st in	67%	65%
1st pts	131/162	139/216
%1st pts	81%	64%
2nd pts	44/81	64/115
%2nd pts	54%	56%

Medvedev made 37 aces (12.3 per match). Moutet recorded 14 aces (3.5 per match). Medvedev won 81% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Moutet won 64% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Medvedev	Moutet
Won	8	15
Converted	8/19	15/35
% Converted	42%	43%
Conceded	10	36
Saved	9	29
% Saved	90%	81%
Times Broken	1	7

The Russian broke his opponents 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. Daniil lost his serve once and he saved 90% of the break points that he conceded. Moutet broke his opponents 15 times with a 43% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 81% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
	R2 Walton	1/4 Marozsan	1/2 Duckworth	Total
Score	7-5 7-60	7-5 6-2	6-78 6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	25	20	30	75
pts	85-74	66-46	108-86	259-206
Total points	159	112	194	465
Winners	46	38	47	131
%Winners	54%	58%	44%	51%
SERVE
Aces	13	9	15	37
Double Faults	7	2	8	17
1st in	59/90	48/59	55/94	162/243
% 1st in	66%	81%	59%	67%
1st pts	46/59	38/48	47/55	131/162
% 1st pts	78%	79%	85%	81%
2nd pts	15/31	7/11	22/39	44/81
% 2nd pts	48%	64%	56%	54%
Breaks
Won	2	3	3	8
Converted	2/6	3/4	3/9	8/19
Converted %	33%	75%	33%	42%
Conceded	6	3	1	10
Saved	5/6	3/3	1/1	9
Saved %	83%	100%	100%	94%
Times Broken	1	0	0	1

Moutet
	R1 Tomic	R2 Shevchenko	1/4 Struff	1/2 Michelsen	Total
Score	6-1 7-69	7-5 6-3	6-4 7-5	7-5 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	20	21	22	22	85
pts	90-74	77-65	75-69	87-80	329-288
Total points	164	142	144	167	617
Winners	40	28	31	40	139
%Winners	44%	36%	41%	46%	42%
SERVE
Aces	5	4	4	1	14
Double Faults	3	0	4	0	7
1st in	52/84	49/69	46/80	69/98	216/331
% 1st in	62%	71%	58%	70%	65%
1st pts	40/52	28/49	31/46	40/69	139/216
% 1st pts	77%	57%	67%	58%	64%
2nd pts	17/32	15/20	16/34	16/29	64/115
% 2nd pts	53%	75%	47%	55%	56%
Breaks
Won	2	4	5	4	15
Converted	2/8	4/10	5/6	4/11	15/35
Converted %	25%	40%	83%	36%	43%
Conceded	4	6	18	8	36
Saved	4/4	4/6	15/18	6/8	29
Saved %	100%	67%	83%	75%	108%
Times Broken	0	2	3	2	7

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Corentin MoutetMoutet – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-1) – H2H and prediction