Denis Shapovalov and Elias Ymer will clash against each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Nordic Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 9:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Denis Shapovalov who should win in 2 sets.
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.198
Elias Ymer -> 4.55
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Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Elias Ymer
There is no head to head record between Denis Shapovalov and Elias Ymer since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Denis Shapovalov
24 - 19win/loss
23
10
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-22 | 14-11 | 2-5 | 9-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-25 | 9-10 | 5-6 | 16-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 13-13 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 34-26 | 22-12 | 4-4 | 7-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-23 | 11-11 | 7-6 | 4-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 23, the Canadian got to the quarter after defeating Leo Borg 6-2 5-7 6-1.
In the 2nd round, The Canadian defeated Borg (6-2 5-7 6-1). During the match, Shapovalov scored 104 points vs Borg’s 78. Shapovalov was quite aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about the service games, Shapovalov bagged 6 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Denis Shapovalov lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Shapovalov put 60% of his first serves in, winning 83% (39/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (12/31) on the 2nd serve. The Canadian broke Borg 7 times after converting 39% of his break points (7/18).
Shapovalov has favorable record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (317-220). 6-0 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Shapovalov has an aggregate 80-48 record in the last years on indoor hard courts.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Dallas where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(5) 6-3 and in Los Cabos where he defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic in the final 6-4 6-2.
Denis has an aggregate 23-19 win-loss record in 2025, 6-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Stockholm
Elias Ymer
27 - 27win/loss
169
105
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35-31 | 11-7 | 16-20 | 7-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-32 | 7-15 | 6-9 | 8-7 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 42-41 | 10-13 | 24-17 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 39-32 | 12-11 | 20-15 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-29 | 9-9 | 20-11 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 243, the Swede reached the quarter after beating Mikael Ymer 6-2 7-6(4) and Jacob Fearnley 6-2 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Ymer had a good straight sets win against Fearnley (6-2 6-2). During the match Ymer scored 59 points vs Fearnley’s 38. Ymer was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about serving, Ymer fired 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Elias Ymer was pretty efficient on serve to win 81% (25/31) of his 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Ymer broke Fearnley 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ymer hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
The Swede’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Chennai Challenger.
The Swede has a composed 27-26 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Stockholm
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history
.H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Shapovalov | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 27 | 37 |
| Pts | 104-78 | 130-99 |
| Total Points | 182 | 229 |
| Winners | 39 | 55 |
| %Winners | 38% | 42% |
Shapovalov played 1 match while Ymer competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov dropped 1 set while Elias Ymer hasn’t lost a set so far. Shapovalov has played 1 set(s) less than Ymer (3 vs 4). Therefore, Shapovalov played 10 games less than Ymer. Shapovalov scored 39 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Elias fired 55 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Shapovalov | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 16 |
| Avg per match | 6 | 8 |
| 1st in | 47/78 | 68/109 |
| %1st in | 60% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 39/47 | 55/68 |
| %1st pts | 83% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 12/31 | 24/41 |
| %2nd pts | 39% | 59% |
Shapovalov bagged 6 aces . Ymer recorded 16 aces (8 per match). Shapovalov won 83% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 39% of the points. On the other side, Ymer won 81% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Shapovalov | Ymer |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 6 |
| Converted | 7/18 | 6/11 |
| % Converted | 39% | 55% |
| Conceded | 7 | 3 |
| Saved | 4 | 3 |
| % Saved | 57% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 |
The Canadian broke his opponent 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. Shapovalov surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. Elias broke his opponents 6 times with a 55% conversion rate. Elias was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 3 break points.
| Shapovalov | |||
| R2 Borg | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 5-7 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 27 | |
| pts | 104-78 | 104-78 | |
| Total points | 182 | 182 | |
| Winners | 39 | 39 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 47/78 | 47/78 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 39/47 | 39/47 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/31 | 12/31 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 39% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 7 | 7 | |
| Converted | 7/18 | 7/18 | |
| Converted % | 39% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Ymer | ||||
| R1 Ymer | R2 Fearnley | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-64 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 16 | 37 | |
| pts | 71-61 | 59-38 | 130-99 | |
| Total points | 132 | 97 | 229 | |
| Winners | 30 | 25 | 55 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 12 | 4 | 16 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 37/63 | 31/46 | 68/109 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 67% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 30/37 | 25/31 | 55/68 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 81% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/26 | 9/15 | 24/41 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 60% | 59% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 4/7 | 6/11 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 57% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 2/2 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 200% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Tennis Scores in Stockholm
- Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori – Miomir Kecmanovic/Alexandre MullerKecmanovic/Alexandre Muller (4-6 6-1 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Elias YmerYmer – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (5-3) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Casper RuudRuud (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (2-1) – H2H and prediction