Denis Shapovalov and Elias Ymer will clash against each other in the quarter of the BNP Paribas Nordic Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 9:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Denis Shapovalov who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Denis Shapovalov is the pick to win this match.
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.198
Elias Ymer -> 4.55

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Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Elias Ymer

There is no head to head record between Denis Shapovalov and Elias Ymer since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov

24 - 19win/loss

Hard
14-11
I Hard
7-0
Clay
2-5
Grass
1-3
Rank
23
High
10
LLWWLWWLWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 26-22 14-11 2-5 9-3 1-3 0-0
2024 33-25 9-10 5-6 16-6 3-3 0-0
2023 13-13 6-6 3-3 0-1 4-3 0-0
2022 34-26 22-12 4-4 7-6 1-4 0-0
2021 30-23 11-11 7-6 4-3 8-3 0-0

Ranked no. 23, the Canadian got to the quarter after defeating Leo Borg 6-2 5-7 6-1.

In the 2nd round, The Canadian defeated Borg (6-2 5-7 6-1). During the match, Shapovalov scored 104 points vs Borg’s 78. Shapovalov was quite aggressive to blast 39 winners.

Talking about the service games, Shapovalov bagged 6 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Denis Shapovalov lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Shapovalov put 60% of his first serves in, winning 83% (39/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (12/31) on the 2nd serve. The Canadian broke Borg 7 times after converting 39% of his break points (7/18).

Shapovalov has favorable record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (317-220). 6-0 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Shapovalov has an aggregate 80-48 record in the last years on indoor hard courts.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Dallas where he overcame Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(5) 6-3 and in Los Cabos where he defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic in the final 6-4 6-2.

Denis has an aggregate 23-19 win-loss record in 2025, 6-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Stockholm

Stockholm
Shapovalov's Record

Elias Ymer

Elias Ymer

27 - 27win/loss

Hard
8-5
I Hard
2-1
Clay
16-20
Grass
1-1
Rank
169
High
105
LLWWWWLWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 35-31 11-7 16-20 7-3 1-1 0-0
2024 24-32 7-15 6-9 8-7 3-1 0-0
2023 42-41 10-13 24-17 7-10 1-1 0-0
2022 39-32 12-11 20-15 5-4 2-2 0-0
2021 35-29 9-9 20-11 6-8 0-1 0-0

Ranked no. 243, the Swede reached the quarter after beating Mikael Ymer 6-2 7-6(4) and Jacob Fearnley 6-2 6-2.

In the 2nd round, Ymer had a good straight sets win against Fearnley (6-2 6-2). During the match Ymer scored 59 points vs Fearnley’s 38. Ymer was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about serving, Ymer fired 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Elias Ymer was pretty efficient on serve to win 81% (25/31) of his 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Ymer broke Fearnley 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ymer hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

The Swede’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Chennai Challenger.

The Swede has a composed 27-26 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Stockholm

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history

.
Stockholm
Ymer's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

D.Shapovalov
E.Ymer
2h:08
2h:08
Time on court​
2h:45
2h:45
!
2h:08
2h:08
Last match​
1h:15
1h:15
1
1
Match played
!
2
2
27
27
Games Played​
37
37
3
3
Set played​​
4
4
104
104
Total points​
130
130
104
104
Avg point​
65
65
39
39
Winners
55
55
39
39
Avg Winners​
27.5
27.5
38%
38%
Ratio winners
42%
42%
-- Serve --
6
6
Aces
16
16
6
6
Avg Aces
8
8
8
8
Double Faults
5
5
!
8
8
Avg Double Faults
2.5
2.5
39/47
39/47
1st won total​
55/68
55/68
!
83%
83%
1st won %
!
81%
81%
12/31
12/31
2nd won total​
24/41
24/41
!
39%
39%
2nd won %
59%
59%
-- Break Points --
7/18
7/18
BP won
6/11
6/11
7/18
7/18
Avg BP won
3/5.5
3/5.5
39%
39%
Won
!
55%
55%
7
7
Conceded
3
3
7
7
Avg Conceded
1.5
1.5
3
3
Broken
0
0
3
3
Avg Broken
!
0
0
4
4
Saved
3
3

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Shapovalov Ymer
Match played 1 2
Tot Set 3 4
Tot Games 27 37
Pts 104-78 130-99
Total Points 182 229
Winners 39 55
%Winners 38% 42%

Shapovalov played 1 match while Ymer competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov dropped 1 set while Elias Ymer hasn’t lost a set so far. Shapovalov has played 1 set(s) less than Ymer (3 vs 4). Therefore, Shapovalov played 10 games less than Ymer. Shapovalov scored 39 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Elias fired 55 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve Shapovalov Ymer
Aces 6 16
Avg per match 6 8
1st in 47/78 68/109
%1st in 60% 62%
1st pts 39/47 55/68
%1st pts 83% 81%
2nd pts 12/31 24/41
%2nd pts 39% 59%

Shapovalov bagged 6 aces . Ymer recorded 16 aces (8 per match). Shapovalov won 83% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 39% of the points. On the other side, Ymer won 81% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Shapovalov Ymer
Won 7 6
Converted 7/18 6/11
% Converted 39% 55%
Conceded 7 3
Saved 4 3
% Saved 57% 100%
Times Broken 3 0

The Canadian broke his opponent 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. Shapovalov surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. Elias broke his opponents 6 times with a 55% conversion rate. Elias was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 3 break points.

Shapovalov
R2
Borg
Total
Score 6-2 5-7 6-1
Tot Set 3 3
Tot Games 27 27
pts 104-78 104-78
Total points 182 182
Winners 39 39
%Winners 38% 38%
SERVE
Aces 6 6
Double Faults 8 8
1st in 47/78 47/78
% 1st in 60% 60%
1st pts 39/47 39/47
% 1st pts 83% 83%
2nd pts 12/31 12/31
% 2nd pts 39% 39%
Breaks
Won 7 7
Converted 7/18 7/18
Converted % 39% 39%
Conceded 7 7
Saved 4/7 4
Saved % 57% 57%
Times Broken 3 3
Ymer
R1
Ymer
R2
Fearnley
Total
Score 6-2 7-64 6-2 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 21 16 37
pts 71-61 59-38 130-99
Total points 132 97 229
Winners 30 25 55
%Winners 42% 42% 42%
SERVE
Aces 12 4 16
Double Faults 3 2 5
1st in 37/63 31/46 68/109
% 1st in 59% 67% 62%
1st pts 30/37 25/31 55/68
% 1st pts 81% 81% 81%
2nd pts 15/26 9/15 24/41
% 2nd pts 58% 60% 59%
Breaks
Won 2 4 6
Converted 2/4 4/7 6/11
Converted % 50% 57% 55%
Conceded 1 2 3
Saved 1/1 2/2 3
Saved % 100% 100% 200%
Times Broken 0 0 0

Tennis Scores in Stockholm

  • Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea VavassoriMiomir Kecmanovic/Alexandre MullerKecmanovic/Alexandre Muller (4-6 6-1 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw