Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno-Busta will clash against each other in the quarter of the Olbia Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 3:00 pm on CLOTO ARENA. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alejandro Tabilo who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alejandro Tabilo is the pick to win this match.
Alejandro Tabilo -> 1.7
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 2.07

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Prediction and head to head Alejandro Tabilo vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta

This will be the 2^nd time that Alejandro Tabilo and Pablo Carreno-Busta face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Carreno-Busta (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Carreno-Busta won 6-4 7-6(4) in the R in Atp cup back in 2022.

Highlights Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo – Atp cup 01-January-2022

Alejandro Tabilo

Ranked no. 73, the Chilean got to the quarter after beating Lorenzo Carboni 4-6 6-3 7-6(4) and Daniil Glinka 6-3 5-7 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, The Chilean defeated Glinka (6-3 5-7 6-1). During the match, Tabilo scored 98 points vs Glinka’s 84. The Chilean was extremely aggressive to blast 44 winners.

Talking about the service games, Tabilo bagged 15 aces and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Alejandro Tabilo lost the serve twice and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Tabilo put 68% of his first serves in, winning 67% (44/66) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (17/31) on the 2nd serve. Alejandro broke Glinka 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Tabilo has surrendered 2 set in this competition to win 53% of the points he played.

Tabilo has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (361-238). 20-12 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Tabilo has a composed 113-73 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Chengdu where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 6-3 2-6 7-6(5).

Tabilo has an overall 26-19 win-loss record in 2025, 20-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Olbia Challenger

Tabilo has never competed in this tournament before.

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Ranked no. 104, Carreno-Busta got to the quarter after defeating Pierluigi Basile 6-2 6-7(5) 6-3 and Pablo Carreno-Busta 3-6 6-1 6-2.

In the 2^nd round against Pavlovic, The Spaniard recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-2). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 85 points vs Pavlovic’s 65. Carreno-Busta was pretty aggressive to blast 39 winners.

About the serving games, Carreno-Busta was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Pablo Carreno-Busta was quite efficient on serve to win 75% (39/52) of his 1st serve and 57% (8/14) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Carreno-Busta broke Pavlovic 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carreno-Busta has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he overcame Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he overcame Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Villena Challenger where he overcame Hugo Grenier in the final 4-6 6-1 6-4.

Pablo has an aggregate 38-25 win-loss record in 2025, 23-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Tabilo	Carreno-Busta
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	6	6
Tot Games	60	54
Pts	201-180	203-162
Total Points	381	365
Winners	94	94
%Winners	47%	46%

Both Tabilo and Carreno-Busta played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alejandro Tabilo surrendered 2 sets, while Pablo Carreno-Busta dropped 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Tabilo and Carreno-Busta have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Tabilo played 6 games more than Carreno-Busta. The Chilean scored 94 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Pablo scored 94 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Tabilo	Carreno-Busta
Aces	31	7
Avg per match	15.5	3.5
1st in	134/201	126/166
%1st in	67%	76%
1st pts	94/134	94/126
%1st pts	70%	75%
2nd pts	37/67	22/40
%2nd pts	55%	55%

Tabilo blasted 31 aces (15.5 per match). Carreno-Busta scored 7 aces (3.5 per match). Tabilo won 70% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Tabilo	Carreno-Busta
Won	7	8
Converted	7/14	8/17
% Converted	50%	47%
Conceded	17	11
Saved	13	9
% Saved	76%	82%
Times Broken	4	2

Tabilo broke his opponents 7 times with a 50% conversion rate. Alejandro conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded. Carreno-Busta broke his opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve twice and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded.

Tabilo
	R1 Carboni	R2 Glinka	Total
Score	4-6 6-3 7-64	6-3 5-7 6-1
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	32	28	60
pts	103-96	98-84	201-180
Total points	199	182	381
Winners	50	44	94
%Winners	49%	45%	47%
SERVE
Aces	16	15	31
Double Faults	1	0	1
1st in	68/104	66/97	134/201
% 1st in	65%	68%	67%
1st pts	50/68	44/66	94/134
% 1st pts	74%	67%	70%
2nd pts	20/36	17/31	37/67
% 2nd pts	56%	55%	55%
Breaks
Won	2	5	7
Converted	2/8	5/6	7/14
Converted %	25%	83%	50%
Conceded	8	9	17
Saved	6/8	7/9	13
Saved %	75%	78%	77%
Times Broken	2	2	4

Carreno-Busta
	R1 Basile	R2 Pavlovic	Total
Score	6-2 6-75 6-3	3-6 6-1 6-2
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	30	24	54
pts	118-97	85-65	203-162
Total points	215	150	365
Winners	55	39	94
%Winners	47%	46%	46%
SERVE
Aces	7	0	7
Double Faults	1	0	1
1st in	74/100	52/66	126/166
% 1st in	74%	79%	76%
1st pts	55/74	39/52	94/126
% 1st pts	74%	75%	75%
2nd pts	14/26	8/14	22/40
% 2nd pts	54%	57%	55%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/9	4/8	8/17
Converted %	44%	50%	47%
Conceded	9	2	11
Saved	8/9	1/2	9
Saved %	89%	50%	70%
Times Broken	1	1	2

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Nerman FaticFatic – Hugo GrenierGrenier (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (0-1) – H2H and prediction