Aidan Mchugh and Keegan Smith will face off in the qualifications of the Lincoln Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 12:30 pm on COURT 5. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aidan Mchugh who should win in 3 sets.
Aidan Mchugh -> 1.87
Keegan Smith -> 1.87
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Prediction and head to head Aidan Mchugh vs. Keegan Smith
This will be the 2nd time that Aidan Mchugh and Keegan Smith face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Mchugh (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on indoor hard courts.
The last time that they played each other, Mchugh won 6-3 6-4 in the 2nd round in M15 Tabasco back in 2023.
Aidan Mchugh
32 - 20win/loss
407
298
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 46-24 | 32-17 | 0-0 | 13-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-31 | 20-15 | 1-1 | 8-11 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| 2023 | 52-30 | 39-20 | 0-0 | 13-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-26 | 11-10 | 0-0 | 23-12 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 52-28 | 34-15 | 7-5 | 10-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 530, the Brit got to the qualifications after defeating Kyle Seelig 6-2 7-6(3).
In the qualifications, Aidan had a good straight sets win against Seelig (6-2 7-63). During the match, Mchugh scored 77 points vs Seelig’s 67. Aidan was exceptionally aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Talking about the service games, Mchugh managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Aidan Mchugh lost the serve twice and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Mchugh put 45% of his first serves in, winning 63% (22/35) of the points behind his 1st serve and 57% (24/42) on the 2nd serve. Mchugh broke Seelig 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Mchugh has a solid win-loss record in the last 9 years having won 60% of his matches (297-200). 5-2 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Mchugh has a compiled74-57 win-loss record in the last 9 years on indoor hard courts.
The Brit’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M15 Huamantla and M25 Edwardsville.
Mchugh has an aggregate 32-19 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Lincoln Challenger
Mchugh has never competed in this tournament before.
Keegan Smith
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 43-21 | 26-11 | 0-0 | 17-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-26 | 36-21 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 35-26 | 31-20 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-24 | 26-14 | 3-4 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 16-5 | 8-2 | 0-0 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 554, Smith got to the qualifications after beating Joan Torres Espinosa 6-0 6-3.
In the qualifications, Keegan had a good straight sets win against Torres Espinosa (6-0 6-3). During the match Smith scored 55 points vs Torres Espinosa’s 31. Smith was quite aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Smith blasted 4 aces and he was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Keegan Smith conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 1 break points. Furthermore, Smith put 75% of his first serves in, winning 88% (29/33) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (5/11) on the 2nd serve. Smith was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Torres Espinosa 4 times.
Smith’s best result of the season was reaching the final in M15 San Diego and M15 Fayetteville.
The American has an aggregate 30-16 win-loss record in 2025, 4-5 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mchugh | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 21 | 15 |
| Pts | 77-67 | 55-31 |
| Total Points | 144 | 86 |
| Winners | 22 | 29 |
| %Winners | 29% | 53% |
Both Mchugh and Smith played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Mchugh and Smith have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Mchugh played 6 games more than Smith. Mchugh scored 22 winners (29% of the total points). On the other side, The American scored 29 winners (53%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mchugh | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 4 |
| 1st in | 35/77 | 33/44 |
| %1st in | 45% | 75% |
| 1st pts | 22/35 | 29/33 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 88% |
| 2nd pts | 24/42 | 5/11 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 45% |
Mchugh made 4 aces . Smith blasted 4 aces . Mchugh won 63% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Smith won 88% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mchugh | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 4 |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/4 |
| % Converted | 50% | 100% |
| Conceded | 10 | 1 |
| Saved | 8 | 1 |
| % Saved | 80% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 |
Mchugh broke his opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. Aidan dropped his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Smith broke his opponent 4 times with a 100% conversion rate. Smith was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points.
| Mchugh | |||
| Q1 Seelig | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 21 | |
| pts | 77-67 | 77-67 | |
| Total points | 144 | 144 | |
| Winners | 22 | 22 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 29% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 35/77 | 35/77 | |
| % 1st in | 45% | 45% | |
| 1st pts | 22/35 | 22/35 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/42 | 24/42 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/8 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | |
| Saved | 8/10 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Smith | |||
| Q1 Torres | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 15 | |
| pts | 55-31 | 55-31 | |
| Total points | 86 | 86 | |
| Winners | 29 | 29 | |
| %Winners | 53% | 53% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 33/44 | 33/44 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 75% | |
| 1st pts | 29/33 | 29/33 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 88% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/11 | 5/11 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 45% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/4 | 4/4 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Upcoming matches in the draw
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- Alfredo PerezPerez – Dmitry PopkoPopko (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Patrick KypsonKypson – Mats RosenkranzRosenkranz (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon HoltHolt – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aidan MchughMchugh – Keegan SmithSmith (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Dan MartinMartin – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Dhakshineswar SureshSuresh – Alex RybakovRybakov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Andre IlaganIlagan – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Cannon KingsleyKingsley – Justin BoulaisBoulais (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Andrew FentyFenty – Karl PolingPoling (0-0) – H2H and prediction