Jan Choinski and Luka Mikrut will clash against each other in the final of the Valencia Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 6:00 pm on PISTA PABLO ANDUJAR. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luka Mikrut who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Luka Mikrut is the pick to win this match.
Luka Mikrut -> 1.85
Jan Choinski -> 1.88

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Prediction and head to head Jan Choinski vs. Luka Mikrut

There is no head to head record between Jan Choinski and Luka Mikrut since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Jan Choinski

Ranked no. 158, Choinski got to the final after beating Miguel Damas 6-7(2) 6-3 6-3, Ivan Gakhov 4-6 6-3 6-4, Albert Ramos-Vinolas 6-4 7-5 and Henri Squire 6-7(2) 7-5 7-5.

In the semifinal against Squire, Choinski recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-7² 7-5 7-5). During the match, Choinski scored 117 points vs Squire’s 111. Jan was very aggressive to blast 53 winners.

Regarding the service games, Choinski blasted 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Jan Choinski was pretty effective on serve to win 72% (53/74) of his 1st serve and 59% (26/44) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Choinski broke Squire 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jan has lost 3 set in this competition to win 53% of the points he played.

Choinski has favorable win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (331-229). 28-14 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Choinski has a composed 198-112 record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the season was conquering the title the Troyes Challenger where he beat Calvin Hemery in the final 6-4 6-7(4) 6-2 and the Bunschoten Challenger where he beat Kimmer Coppejans in the final 6-4 3-6 6-3 and the Bad Waltersdorf Challenger where he overcame Vit Kopriva in the final 7-5 6-4.

Choinski has an aggregate 34-23 win-loss record in 2025, 28-14 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Valencia Challenger

Luka Mikrut

Ranked no. 239 (career-high), the Croatian got to the final after beating Alejandro Moro Canas 4-6 6-2 6-3, Carlos Lopez Montagud 6-3 6-1, Christoph Negritu 4-6 7-6(4) 6-4 and Carlos Taberner 7-6(10) 6-0.

In the semifinal, Mikrut had a good straight sets win against Taberner (7-6¹⁰ 6-0). During the match Mikrut scored 84 points vs Taberner’s 64. Luka was extremely aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about serving, Mikrut managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Luka Mikrut was extremely efficient on serve to win 75% (27/36) of his 1st serve and 58% (15/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Luka broke Taberner 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Luka has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Como Challenger where he defeated Duje Ajdukovic in the final 6-3 7-5 and the Braga Challenger where he overcame Vilius Gaubas in the final 6-3 6-4.

Luka has an aggregate 55-17 win-loss record in 2025, 52-14 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Valencia Challenger

Luka has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Choinski	Mikrut
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	11	10
Tot Games	119	95
Pts	397-354	333-272
Total Points	751	605
Winners	180	133
%Winners	45%	40%

Both Choinski and Mikrut played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jan Choinski lost 3 sets, while Luka Mikrut lost 2 sets. Choinski has played 1 set more than Mikrut (11 vs 10). Therefore, Choinski played 24 games more than Mikrut. The Brit scored 180 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, The Croatian fired 133 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Choinski	Mikrut
Aces	28	19
Avg per match	7	4.8
1st in	256/384	170/290
%1st in	67%	59%
1st pts	180/256	133/170
%1st pts	70%	78%
2nd pts	65/128	66/120
%2nd pts	51%	55%

Choinski managed to score 28 aces (7 per match). Mikrut managed to score 19 aces (4.8 per match). Choinski won 70% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Mikrut won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Choinski	Mikrut
Won	19	15
Converted	19/30	15/32
% Converted	63%	47%
Conceded	32	12
Saved	22	6
% Saved	69%	50%
Times Broken	10	6

Choinski broke his opponents 19 times with a 63% conversion rate. The Brit surrendered his serve 10 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded. The Croatian broke his opponents 15 times with a 47% conversion rate. Mikrut conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Choinski
	R1 Damas	R2 Gakhov	1/4 Ramos-Vinolas	1/2 Squire	Total
Score	6-72 6-3 6-3	4-6 6-3 6-4	6-4 7-5	6-72 7-5 7-5
Tot Set	3	3	2	3	11
Tot Games	31	29	22	37	119
pts	99-88	103-95	78-60	117-111	397-354
Total points	187	198	138	228	751
Winners	44	43	40	53	180
%Winners	44%	42%	51%	45%	45%
SERVE
Aces	6	7	9	6	28
Double Faults	1	3	0	2	6
1st in	69/102	62/101	51/63	74/118	256/384
% 1st in	68%	61%	81%	63%	67%
1st pts	44/69	43/62	40/51	53/74	180/256
% 1st pts	64%	69%	78%	72%	70%
2nd pts	20/33	12/39	7/12	26/44	65/128
% 2nd pts	61%	31%	58%	59%	51%
Breaks
Won	6	7	3	3	19
Converted	6/8	7/11	3/7	3/4	19/30
Converted %	75%	64%	43%	75%	63%
Conceded	8	15	3	6	32
Saved	5/8	10/15	2/3	5/6	22
Saved %	63%	67%	67%	83%	70%
Times Broken	3	5	1	1	10

Mikrut
	R1 Moro	R2 Lopez	1/4 Negritu	1/2 Taberner	Total
Score	4-6 6-2 6-3	6-3 6-1	4-6 7-64 6-4	7-610 6-0
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	10
Tot Games	27	16	33	19	95
pts	85-78	56-30	108-100	84-64	333-272
Total points	163	86	208	148	605
Winners	34	20	52	27	133
%Winners	40%	36%	48%	32%	40%
SERVE
Aces	6	2	7	4	19
Double Faults	2	0	4	1	7
1st in	48/84	23/40	63/104	36/62	170/290
% 1st in	57%	58%	61%	58%	59%
1st pts	34/48	20/23	52/63	27/36	133/170
% 1st pts	71%	87%	83%	75%	78%
2nd pts	17/36	12/17	22/41	15/26	66/120
% 2nd pts	47%	71%	54%	58%	55%
Breaks
Won	5	4	1	5	15
Converted	5/8	4/6	1/6	5/12	15/32
Converted %	63%	67%	17%	42%	47%
Conceded	5	0	3	4	12
Saved	2/5	0/0	2/3	2/4	6
Saved %	40%	–	67%	50%	39%
Times Broken	3	0	1	2	6

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jan ChoinskiChoinski – (0-0) – H2H and prediction