Arthur Cazaux and Mackenzie Mcdonald will face off in the final of the Jinan Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 4:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Arthur Cazaux who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Arthur Cazaux is the pick to win this match.
Arthur Cazaux -> 1.65
Mackenzie Mcdonald -> 2.14
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Prediction and head to head Arthur Cazaux vs. Mackenzie Mcdonald
This will be the 2nd time that Arthur Cazaux and Mackenzie Mcdonald clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Mcdonald (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Mcdonald won 6-4 7-6(4) in the final in the Shenzhen Challenger back in 2024.
Arthur Cazaux
30 - 21win/loss
66
58
LWLWLWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33-24 | 18-13 | 8-5 | 3-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-24 | 25-15 | 0-2 | 5-3 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 54-29 | 31-13 | 11-9 | 3-4 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 22-14 | 14-3 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-19 | 16-4 | 22-11 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 70, the French player got to the final after beating Ugo Blanchet 6-3 6-4, Liam Draxl 6-2 7-6(3), Yi Zhou 6-4 3-6 6-0 and Shintaro Mochizuki 6-1 6-2.
In the semifinal, Arthur had a good straight sets win against Mochizuki (6-1 6-2). During the match, Cazaux scored 59 points vs Mochizuki’s 32. Cazaux was pretty aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Regarding the service games, Cazaux blasted 5 aces and he was exceptionally steady in conceding no double faults. Arthur Cazaux was exceptionally effective on serve to win 83% (20/24) of his 1st serve and 68% (13/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Arthur broke Mochizuki 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Cazaux has lost 1 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
Cazaux has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 62% of his matches (201-123). 17-13 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Cazaux has a composed117-53 record in the last 8 years on hard.
The French player best result of the year was getting to the final in Kitzbuhel.
The French player has an aggregate 30-21 win-loss record in 2025, 17-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Jinan Challenger
The French player has never competed in this tournament before.
Mackenzie Mcdonald
36 - 26win/loss
112
37
LWWLWLWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40-31 | 24-16 | 1-4 | 9-6 | 6-5 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 26-23 | 18-12 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 5-6 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 35-30 | 23-15 | 0-6 | 4-3 | 8-6 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 27-31 | 16-16 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 42-26 | 15-12 | 12-5 | 9-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 99, Mackenzie reached the final after beating Harold Mayot 6-3 7-6(2), Pavel Kotov 7-5 6-2, Brandon Holt 6-3 4-6 7-6(7) and Petr Bar Biryukov 6-2 6-3.
In the semifinal, The American had a good straight sets win against Bar Biryukov (6-2 6-3). During the match Mcdonald scored 60 points vs Bar Biryukov’s 34. The American was very aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about serving, Mcdonald blasted 2 aces and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Mackenzie Mcdonald was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 78% (25/32) of his 1st serve and 89% (8/9) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Bar Biryukov 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
The American’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in the San Diego Challenger.
The American has a compiled 36-26 win-loss record in 2025, 24-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Cazaux | Mcdonald |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 80 | 91 |
| Pts | 299-238 | 310-248 |
| Total Points | 537 | 558 |
| Winners | 121 | 131 |
| %Winners | 40% | 42% |
Both Cazaux and Mcdonald played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Arthur Cazaux dropped 1 set, while Mackenzie Mcdonald conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Cazaux and Mcdonald have played the same amount of sets 9. However, Cazaux played 11 games less than Mcdonald. Cazaux scored 121 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Mcdonald managed to score 131 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Cazaux | Mcdonald |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 26 | 22 |
| Avg per match | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| 1st in | 160/269 | 177/276 |
| %1st in | 59% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 121/160 | 131/177 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 60/109 | 60/99 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 61% |
Cazaux blasted 26 aces (6.5 per match). Mcdonald fired 22 aces (5.5 per match). Cazaux won 76% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Mcdonald won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Cazaux | Mcdonald |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 13 |
| Converted | 14/39 | 13/24 |
| % Converted | 36% | 54% |
| Conceded | 22 | 15 |
| Saved | 19 | 11 |
| % Saved | 86% | 73% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 4 |
The French player broke his opponents 14 times with a 36% conversion rate. Arthur surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. Mackenzie broke his opponents 13 times with a 54% conversion rate. Mackenzie conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded.
| Cazaux | ||||||
| R1 Blanchet |
R2 Draxl |
1/4 Zhou |
1/2 Mochizuki |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-2 7-63 | 6-4 3-6 6-0 | 6-1 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 21 | 25 | 15 | 80 | |
| pts | 84-77 | 70-55 | 86-74 | 59-32 | 299-238 | |
| Total points | 161 | 125 | 160 | 91 | 537 | |
| Winners | 31 | 36 | 34 | 20 | 121 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 51% | 40% | 34% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 26 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 47/83 | 44/68 | 45/75 | 24/43 | 160/269 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 65% | 60% | 56% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 31/47 | 36/44 | 34/45 | 20/24 | 121/160 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 82% | 76% | 83% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/36 | 10/24 | 18/30 | 13/19 | 60/109 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 42% | 60% | 68% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 3/13 | 3/4 | 4/12 | 4/10 | 14/39 | |
| Converted % | 23% | 75% | 33% | 40% | 36% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 22 | |
| Saved | 10/11 | 5/6 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 19 | |
| Saved % | 91% | 83% | 80% | – | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Mcdonald | ||||||
| R1 Mayot |
R2 Kotov |
1/4 Holt |
1/2 Bar |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-62 | 7-5 6-2 | 6-3 4-6 7-67 | 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 20 | 32 | 17 | 91 | |
| pts | 78-64 | 72-45 | 100-105 | 60-34 | 310-248 | |
| Total points | 142 | 117 | 205 | 94 | 558 | |
| Winners | 28 | 31 | 47 | 25 | 131 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 43% | 47% | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 22 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 38/64 | 37/51 | 70/120 | 32/41 | 177/276 | |
| % 1st in | 59% | 73% | 58% | 78% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 28/38 | 31/37 | 47/70 | 25/32 | 131/177 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 84% | 67% | 78% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/26 | 11/14 | 28/50 | 8/9 | 60/99 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 79% | 56% | 89% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 3/7 | 2/3 | 4/5 | 13/24 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 43% | 67% | 80% | 54% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 15 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 0/0 | 6/8 | 3/3 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 50% | – | 75% | 100% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
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