Arthur Cazaux and Shintaro Mochizuki will clash against each other in the semifinal of the Jinan Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 2:30 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Arthur Cazaux who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Arthur Cazaux is the pick to win this match.
Arthur Cazaux -> 1.52
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 2.41

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Prediction and head to head Arthur Cazaux vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

This will be the 2^nd time that Arthur Cazaux and Shintaro Mochizuki face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Cazaux (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Cazaux won 6-1 6-2 in the qualifications in at the U.S. Open back in 2023.

Arthur Cazaux

Ranked no. 70, Cazaux reached the semifinal after defeating Ugo Blanchet 6-3 6-4, Liam Draxl 6-2 7-6(3) and Yi Zhou 6-4 3-6 6-0.

In the quarter, Cazaux defeated Zhou (6-4 3-6 6-0). During the match, Cazaux scored 86 points vs Zhou’s 74. The French player was very aggressive to blast 34 winners.

Talking about the service games, Cazaux blasted 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Arthur Cazaux was pretty effective on serve to win 76% (34/45) of his 1st serve and 60% (18/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The French player broke Zhou 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Cazaux has conceded 1 set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.

Cazaux has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 62% of his matches (200-123). 16-13 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Cazaux has an overall116-53 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

Arthur’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Kitzbuhel.

The French player has an overall 29-21 win-loss record in 2025, 16-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Jinan Challenger

Cazaux has never competed in this tournament before.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Ranked no. 102 (career-high), Shintaro reached the semifinal after beating James McCabe 6-3 6-4, Kyrian Jacquet 6-3 6-2 and Bernard Tomic 6-1 6-4.

In the quarter, Mochizuki had a good straight sets win against Tomic (6-1 6-4). During the match Mochizuki scored 67 points vs Tomic’s 53. The Japanese was exceptionally aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Talking about serving, Mochizuki managed to score 7 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Shintaro Mochizuki was pretty effective on serve to win 84% (21/25) of his 1st serve and 52% (22/42) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Mochizuki broke Tomic 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Shintaro hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Noumea Challenger where he overcame Moerani Bouzige in the final 6-1 6-3.

Shintaro has a compiled 40-25 win-loss record in 2025, 27-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Cazaux	Mochizuki
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	6
Tot Games	65	53
Pts	240-206	205-153
Total Points	446	358
Winners	101	69
%Winners	42%	34%

Both Cazaux and Mochizuki played 3 matches. At the moment, Arthur Cazaux surrendered 1 set while Shintaro Mochizuki hasn’t lost a set so far. Cazaux has played 1 set more than Mochizuki (7 vs 6). Therefore, Cazaux played 12 games more than Mochizuki. Cazaux scored 101 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Mochizuki struck 69 winners (34%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Cazaux	Mochizuki
Aces	21	13
Avg per match	7	4.3
1st in	136/226	84/171
%1st in	60%	49%
1st pts	101/136	69/84
%1st pts	74%	82%
2nd pts	47/90	46/87
%2nd pts	52%	53%

Cazaux bagged 21 aces (7 per match). Mochizuki blasted 13 aces (4.3 per match). Cazaux won 74% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Mochizuki won 82% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Cazaux	Mochizuki
Won	10	11
Converted	10/29	11/29
% Converted	34%	38%
Conceded	22	12
Saved	19	11
% Saved	86%	92%
Times Broken	3	1

The French player broke his opponents 10 times with a 34% conversion rate. Arthur conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. Mochizuki broke his opponents 11 times with a 38% conversion rate. Mochizuki conceded his serve once and he saved 92% of the break points that he conceded.

Cazaux
	R1 Blanchet	R2 Draxl	1/4 Zhou	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-2 7-63	6-4 3-6 6-0
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	19	21	25	65
pts	84-77	70-55	86-74	240-206
Total points	161	125	160	446
Winners	31	36	34	101
%Winners	37%	51%	40%	42%
SERVE
Aces	4	10	7	21
Double Faults	0	1	2	3
1st in	47/83	44/68	45/75	136/226
% 1st in	57%	65%	60%	60%
1st pts	31/47	36/44	34/45	101/136
% 1st pts	66%	82%	76%	74%
2nd pts	19/36	10/24	18/30	47/90
% 2nd pts	53%	42%	60%	52%
Breaks
Won	3	3	4	10
Converted	3/13	3/4	4/12	10/29
Converted %	23%	75%	33%	34%
Conceded	11	6	5	22
Saved	10/11	5/6	4/5	19
Saved %	91%	83%	80%	85%
Times Broken	1	1	1	3

Mochizuki
	R1 McCabe	R2 Jacquet	1/4 Tomic	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-2	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	19	17	17	53
pts	75-57	63-43	67-53	205-153
Total points	132	106	120	358
Winners	24	24	21	69
%Winners	32%	38%	31%	34%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	7	13
Double Faults	0	2	7	9
1st in	33/57	26/47	25/67	84/171
% 1st in	58%	55%	37%	49%
1st pts	24/33	24/26	21/25	69/84
% 1st pts	73%	92%	84%	82%
2nd pts	14/24	10/21	22/42	46/87
% 2nd pts	58%	48%	52%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	4	3	11
Converted	4/12	4/9	3/8	11/29
Converted %	33%	44%	38%	38%
Conceded	6	1	5	12
Saved	5/6	1/1	5/5	11
Saved %	83%	100%	100%	94%
Times Broken	1	0	0	1

Tennis Scores in Jinan Challenger

• Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Colton SmithSmith (6-4 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Arthur CazauxCazaux – Yi ZhouZhou (6-4 3-6 6-0) – See score progression
• Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki – Bernard TomicTomic (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Brandon HoltHolt (6-3 4-6 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Blake Bayldon/Nathaniel LammonsBayldon/Nathaniel Lammons – Cheng-Peng Hsieh/Akira SantillanHsieh/Akira Santillan (6-4 7-6³) – See score progression
• Arthur CazauxCazaux – Yi ZhouZhou (6-4 3-6 6-0) – See score progression
• Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki – Bernard TomicTomic (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Colton SmithSmith (6-4 7-6(4)) – See score progression
• Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Brandon HoltHolt (6-3 4-6 7-6(7)) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw