Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Wuhan Open for the 11^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 6:30 pm on CENTER. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.24
Jessica Pegula -> 4.05

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

This will be the 11^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula fight against each other. The head to head is 8-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 5-2 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 4-6 6-3 6-4

in the semifinal in at the U.S. Open back in September 2025.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula – U.S. Open 04-September-2025

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka got to the semifinal after beating Rebecca Sramkova 4-6 6-3 6-1, Liudmila Samsonova 6-3 6-2 and Elena Rybakina 6-3 6-3.

In the quarter, Aryna had a good straight sets win against Rybakina (6-3 6-3). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Rybakina ‘s 50. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 2 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 60% of her first serves in, winning 79% (27/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (11/23) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Rybakina 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian has surrendered 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of her matches (433-178). 35-5 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an overall 262-97 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she overcame Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3) and at the U.S. Open where she defeated Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-3 7-6(3).

Sabalenka has an aggregate 59-10 win-loss record in 2025, 35-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Wuhan

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 6, the American reached the semifinal after defeating Hailey Baptiste 6-4 4-6 7-6(6), Ekaterina Alexandrova 7-5 3-6 6-3 and Katerina Siniakova 2-6 6-0 6-3.

In the quarter against Siniakova, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-0 6-3). During the match Pegula scored 76 points vs Siniakova’s 57. Jessica was pretty aggressive to blast 35 winners.

About the serving games, Pegula couldn’t to score even 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jessica Pegula lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 67% of her first serves in, winning 78% (35/45) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (10/22) on the 2nd serve. Pegula broke Siniakova 5 times after converting 83% of her break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Austin where she overcame Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she defeated Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Bad Homburg where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 7-5.

Pegula has a compiled 50-20 win-loss record in 2025, 34-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Wuhan

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Pegula
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	9
Tot Games	61	86
Pts	217-168	298-266
Total Points	385	564
Winners	88	121
%Winners	41%	41%

Both Sabalenka and Pegula played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Aryna Sabalenka surrendered 1 set, while Jessica Pegula surrendered 3 sets. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Pegula (7 vs 9). Therefore, Sabalenka played 25 games less than Pegula. The Belarussian scored 88 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Jessica made 121 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Pegula
Aces	15	9
Avg per match	5	3
1st in	122/198	177/287
%1st in	62%	62%
1st pts	88/122	121/177
%1st pts	72%	68%
2nd pts	46/76	54/110
%2nd pts	61%	49%

Sabalenka struck 15 aces (5 per match). Pegula managed to score 9 aces (3 per match). Sabalenka won 72% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 68% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Pegula
Won	12	15
Converted	12/20	15/32
% Converted	60%	47%
Conceded	14	28
Saved	11	17
% Saved	79%	61%
Times Broken	3	11

The Belarussian broke her opponents 12 times with a 60% conversion rate. Aryna lost her serve 3 times and she saved 79% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 15 times with a 47% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 61% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Sramkova	R3 Samsonova	1/4 Rybakina	Total
Score	4-6 6-3 6-1	6-3 6-2	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	26	17	18	61
pts	94-81	57-37	66-50	217-168
Total points	175	94	116	385
Winners	37	24	27	88
%Winners	39%	42%	41%	41%
SERVE
Aces	7	6	2	15
Double Faults	4	1	5	10
1st in	57/94	31/47	34/57	122/198
% 1st in	61%	66%	60%	62%
1st pts	37/57	24/31	27/34	88/122
% 1st pts	65%	77%	79%	72%
2nd pts	22/37	13/16	11/23	46/76
% 2nd pts	59%	81%	48%	61%
Breaks
Won	5	3	4	12
Converted	5/9	3/6	4/5	12/20
Converted %	56%	50%	80%	60%
Conceded	11	0	3	14
Saved	9/11	0/0	2/3	11
Saved %	82%	–	67%	50%
Times Broken	2	0	1	3

Pegula
	R2 Baptiste	R3 Alexandrova	1/4 Siniakova	Total
Score	6-4 4-6 7-66	7-5 3-6 6-3	2-6 6-0 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	3	9
Tot Games	33	30	23	86
pts	127-121	95-88	76-57	298-266
Total points	248	183	133	564
Winners	45	41	35	121
%Winners	35%	43%	46%	41%
SERVE
Aces	5	4	0	9
Double Faults	1	0	1	2
1st in	74/126	58/94	45/67	177/287
% 1st in	59%	62%	67%	62%
1st pts	45/74	41/58	35/45	121/177
% 1st pts	61%	71%	78%	68%
2nd pts	26/52	18/36	10/22	54/110
% 2nd pts	50%	50%	45%	49%
Breaks
Won	6	4	5	15
Converted	6/18	4/8	5/6	15/32
Converted %	33%	50%	83%	47%
Conceded	13	8	7	28
Saved	7/13	5/8	5/7	17
Saved %	54%	63%	71%	63%
Times Broken	6	3	2	11

Tennis Scores in Wuhan

• Filip HoranskyHoransky – Alex MolcanMolcan (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – Stefano TravagliaTravaglia (4-6 6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-6) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jessica PegulaPegula (8-2) – H2H and prediction