Shintaro Mochizuki and Bernard Tomic will square off in the quarter of the Jinan Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 1:00 pm on COURT 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Shintaro Mochizuki who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Shintaro Mochizuki is the pick to win this match.
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 1.6
Bernard Tomic -> 2.23

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Prediction and head to head Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Bernard Tomic

This will be the 2^nd time that Shintaro Mochizuki and Bernard Tomic play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Tomic (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Tomic won 6-1 6-7(3) 6-4 in the 1^st round in the Morelia Challenger back in March 2025.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Ranked no. 102 (career-high), Mochizuki reached the quarter after beating James McCabe 6-3 6-4 and Kyrian Jacquet 6-3 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, Shintaro had a good straight sets win against Jacquet (6-3 6-2). During the match, Mochizuki scored 63 points vs Jacquet’s 43. Shintaro was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about the service games, Mochizuki struck 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Shintaro Mochizuki conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 1 break points. Furthermore, Mochizuki put 55% of his first serves in, winning 92% (24/26) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (10/21) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Jacquet 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Shintaro hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to conquer 58% of the points he played.

Mochizuki has a winning win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 55% of his matches (214-178). 26-15 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Mochizuki has an aggregate122-100 record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Noumea Challenger where he beat Moerani Bouzige in the final 6-1 6-3.

The Japanese has an aggregate 39-25 win-loss record in 2025, 26-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Jinan Challenger

Mochizuki has never competed in this tournament before.

Bernard Tomic

Ranked no. 168, Tomic got to the quarter after beating Dalibor Svrcina 6-1 0-6 6-2 and Billy Harris 6-4 6-7(4) 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, Bernard defeated Harris (6-4 6-7⁴ 6-2). During the match Tomic scored 102 points vs Harris’s 91. Bernard was pretty aggressive to blast 51 winners.

About the serving games, Tomic managed to score 15 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Bernard Tomic lost the serve twice and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Tomic put 59% of his first serves in, winning 85% (51/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (16/42) on the 2nd serve. The Australian broke Harris 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Bernard has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

Tomic’s best result of the year was reaching the final in the Lexington Challenger and the Barranquilla Challenger.

The Australian has a composed 38-29 win-loss record in 2025, 27-20 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Mochizuki	Tomic
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	6
Tot Games	36	52
Pts	138-100	166-154
Total Points	238	320
Winners	48	79
%Winners	35%	48%

Both Mochizuki and Tomic played 2 matches. At the moment, Bernard Tomic dropped 2 sets while Shintaro Mochizuki hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Mochizuki has played 2 set(s) less than Tomic (4 vs 6). Therefore, Mochizuki played 16 games less than Tomic. Mochizuki scored 48 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Bernard recorded 79 winners (48%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Mochizuki	Tomic
Aces	6	19
Avg per match	3	9.5
1st in	59/104	95/170
%1st in	57%	56%
1st pts	48/59	79/95
%1st pts	81%	83%
2nd pts	24/45	26/75
%2nd pts	53%	35%

Mochizuki blasted 6 aces (3 per match). Tomic blasted 19 aces (9.5 per match). Mochizuki won 81% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Tomic won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 35% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Mochizuki	Tomic
Won	8	9
Converted	8/21	9/18
% Converted	38%	50%
Conceded	7	14
Saved	6	9
% Saved	86%	64%
Times Broken	1	5

Mochizuki broke his opponents 8 times with a 38% conversion rate. Shintaro conceded his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. Bernard broke his opponents 9 times with a 50% conversion rate. Bernard conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.

Mochizuki
	R1 McCabe	R2 Jacquet	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	19	17	36
pts	75-57	63-43	138-100
Total points	132	106	238
Winners	24	24	48
%Winners	32%	38%	35%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	6
Double Faults	0	2	2
1st in	33/57	26/47	59/104
% 1st in	58%	55%	57%
1st pts	24/33	24/26	48/59
% 1st pts	73%	92%	81%
2nd pts	14/24	10/21	24/45
% 2nd pts	58%	48%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/12	4/9	8/21
Converted %	33%	44%	38%
Conceded	6	1	7
Saved	5/6	1/1	6
Saved %	83%	100%	92%
Times Broken	1	0	1

Tomic
	R1 Svrcina	R2 Harris	Total
Score	6-1 0-6 6-2	6-4 6-74 6-2
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	21	31	52
pts	64-63	102-91	166-154
Total points	127	193	320
Winners	28	51	79
%Winners	44%	50%	48%
SERVE
Aces	4	15	19
Double Faults	4	3	7
1st in	35/68	60/102	95/170
% 1st in	51%	59%	56%
1st pts	28/35	51/60	79/95
% 1st pts	80%	85%	83%
2nd pts	10/33	16/42	26/75
% 2nd pts	30%	38%	35%
Breaks
Won	4	5	9
Converted	4/7	5/11	9/18
Converted %	57%	45%	50%
Conceded	4	10	14
Saved	1/4	8/10	9
Saved %	25%	80%	53%
Times Broken	3	2	5

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Bernard TomicTomic – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Brandon HoltHolt (2-0) – H2H and prediction