Jessica Pegula and Ekaterina Alexandrova will square off in the 3rd round of the Wuhan Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 11:00 am on CENTER. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.77
Ekaterina Alexandrova -> 2.04

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

This will be the 6th time that Jessica Pegula and Ekaterina Alexandrova fight against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Alexandrova (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Alexandrova won 6-0 6-4 in the quarter in Stuttgart back in April 2025.

Highlights Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula – Stuttgart 19-April-2025

Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula

48 - 20win/loss

Hard
32-11
I Hard
1-2
Clay
11-5
Grass
4-2
Rank
6
High
3
LWLWLWWWWL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 53-23 35-12 11-5 3-4 4-2 0-0
2024 39-16 29-9 4-2 0-2 6-3 0-0
2023 59-18 45-12 8-4 0-0 6-2 0-0
2022 42-21 28-15 11-4 1-1 2-1 0-0
2021 39-19 29-12 6-4 0-0 4-3 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 6, Jessica got to the 3rd round after defeating Hailey Baptiste 6-4 4-6 7-6(6).

In the 2nd round, The American defeated Baptiste (6-4 4-6 7-66). During the match, Pegula scored 127 points vs Baptiste’s 121. The American was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.

Talking about the service games, Pegula recorded 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 6 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 59% of her first serves in, winning 61% (45/74) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (26/52) on the 2nd serve. Jessica broke Baptiste 6 times after converting 33% of her break points (6/18).

Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (352-177). 32-11 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Pegula has a composed 236-101 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Austin where she overcame Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she beat Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Bad Homburg where she defeated Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 7-5.

Jessica has a compiled 48-20 win-loss record in 2025, 32-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Wuhan

Wuhan
Pegula's Record

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ekaterina Alexandrova

43 - 21win/loss

Hard
18-13
I Hard
4-0
Clay
13-5
Grass
8-3
Rank
10
High
10
LLWLWWWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 47-25 22-16 13-5 4-1 8-3 0-0
2024 26-25 17-13 1-7 3-2 5-3 0-0
2023 33-21 17-13 6-5 0-1 10-2 0-0
2022 35-18 12-10 13-5 4-2 6-1 0-0
2021 26-23 10-9 6-5 7-7 3-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 11 (career-high), Alexandrova reached the 3rd round after defeating Victoria Mboko 6-3 6-2 and Ann Li 7-6(5) 6-2.

In the 2nd round, Ekaterina had a good straight sets win against Li (7-65 6-2). During the match Alexandrova scored 78 points vs Li’s 63. Ekaterina was pretty aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about serving, Alexandrova struck 2 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Ekaterina Alexandrova lost the serve once and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Alexandrova put 61% of her first serves in, winning 75% (36/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 48% (15/31) on the 2nd serve. Alexandrova broke Li 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Russian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Linz where she overcame Dayana Yastremska in the final 6-2 3-6 7-5.

Ekaterina has a composed 43-21 win-loss record in 2025, 18-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Wuhan

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2024. See her history.

Wuhan
Alexandrova's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Pegula
E.Alexandrova
2h:55
2h:55
Time on court​
2h:52
2h:52
!
2h:55
2h:55
Last match​
1h:32
1h:32
1
1
Match played
!
2
2
33
33
Games Played​
38
38
3
3
Set played​​
4
4
127
127
Total points​
143
143
127
127
Avg point​
71.5
71.5
45
45
Winners
58
58
45
45
Avg Winners​
29
29
35%
35%
Ratio winners
41%
41%
-- Serve --
5
5
Aces
4
4
5
5
Avg Aces
2
2
1
1
Double Faults
13
13
1
1
Avg Double Faults
!
6.5
6.5
45/74
45/74
1st won total​
58/80
58/80
61%
61%
1st won %
!
73%
73%
26/52
26/52
2nd won total​
32/59
32/59
50%
50%
2nd won %
54%
54%
-- Break Points --
6/18
6/18
BP won
7/13
7/13
6/18
6/18
Avg BP won
3.5/6.5
3.5/6.5
33%
33%
Won
!
54%
54%
13
13
Conceded
9
9
13
13
Avg Conceded
4.5
4.5
6
6
Broken
2
2
!
6
6
Avg Broken
1
1
7
7
Saved
7
7
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Pegula Alexandrova
Match played 1 2
Tot Set 3 4
Tot Games 33 38
Pts 127-121 143-114
Total Points 248 257
Winners 45 58
%Winners 35% 41%

Pegula played 1 match while Alexandrova competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Jessica Pegula dropped 1 set while Ekaterina Alexandrova hasn’t dropped a set so far. Pegula has played 1 set(s) less than Alexandrova (3 vs 4). Therefore, Pegula played 5 games less than Alexandrova. Jessica scored 45 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Alexandrova fired 58 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve Pegula Alexandrova
Aces 5 4
Avg per match 5 2
1st in 74/126 80/139
%1st in 59% 58%
1st pts 45/74 58/80
%1st pts 61% 73%
2nd pts 26/52 32/59
%2nd pts 50% 54%

Pegula recorded 5 aces . Alexandrova made 4 aces (2 per match). Pegula won 61% points on her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Alexandrova won 73% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Pegula Alexandrova
Won 6 7
Converted 6/18 7/13
% Converted 33% 54%
Conceded 13 9
Saved 7 7
% Saved 54% 78%
Times Broken 6 2

Jessica broke her opponent 6 times with a 33% conversion rate. Jessica conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded. Alexandrova broke her opponents 7 times with a 54% conversion rate. Ekaterina conceded her serve twice and she saved 78% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
R2
Baptiste		 Total
Score 6-4 4-6 7-66
Tot Set 3 3
Tot Games 33 33
pts 127-121 127-121
Total points 248 248
Winners 45 45
%Winners 35% 35%
SERVE
Aces 5 5
Double Faults 1 1
1st in 74/126 74/126
% 1st in 59% 59%
1st pts 45/74 45/74
% 1st pts 61% 61%
2nd pts 26/52 26/52
% 2nd pts 50% 50%
Breaks
Won 6 6
Converted 6/18 6/18
Converted % 33% 33%
Conceded 13 13
Saved 7/13 7
Saved % 54% 54%
Times Broken 6 6
Alexandrova
R1
Mboko		 R2
Li		 Total
Score 6-3 6-2 7-65 6-2
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 17 21 38
pts 65-51 78-63 143-114
Total points 116 141 257
Winners 22 36 58
%Winners 34% 46% 41%
SERVE
Aces 2 2 4
Double Faults 7 6 13
1st in 32/60 48/79 80/139
% 1st in 53% 61% 58%
1st pts 22/32 36/48 58/80
% 1st pts 69% 75% 73%
2nd pts 17/28 15/31 32/59
% 2nd pts 61% 48% 54%
Breaks
Won 4 3 7
Converted 4/8 3/5 7/13
Converted % 50% 60% 54%
Conceded 2 7 9
Saved 1/2 6/7 7
Saved % 50% 86% 136%
Times Broken 1 1 2

Tennis Scores in Wuhan

Upcoming matches in the draw

Pegula
More Stats
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Alexandrova

Click for FULL STATS