Mackenzie Mcdonald and Pavel Kotov will play each other in the 2^nd round of the Jinan Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 4:00 pm on COURT 1. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Mackenzie Mcdonald who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Mackenzie Mcdonald is the pick to win this match.
Mackenzie Mcdonald -> 1.43
Pavel Kotov -> 2.68

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Prediction and head to head Mackenzie Mcdonald vs. Pavel Kotov

This will be the 2^nd time that Mackenzie Mcdonald and Pavel Kotov clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Mcdonald (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Mcdonald won 6-2 6-2 in the qualifications in Miami back in March 2025.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Ranked no. 99, the American reached the 2^nd round after defeating Harold Mayot 6-3 7-6(2).

In the 1^st round, The American had a good straight sets win against Mayot (6-3 7-6²). During the match, Mcdonald scored 78 points vs Mayot’s 64. Mackenzie was quite aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Regarding the service games, Mcdonald struck 8 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Mackenzie Mcdonald lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Mcdonald put 59% of his first serves in, winning 74% (28/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (13/26) on the 2nd serve. Mackenzie broke Mayot 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Mcdonald has good match record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (301-241). 21-15 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Mcdonald has an overall 187-130 match record in the last years on hard.

Mackenzie’s best result of the season was getting to the final in the San Diego Challenger.

Mcdonald has a composed 33-26 win-loss record in 2025, 21-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Jinan Challenger

The American has never competed in this tournament before.

Pavel Kotov

Ranked no. 485, the Russian reached the 2^nd round after defeating Sanhui Shin 6-4 6-1, Akira Santillan 6-4 7-6(8) and August Holmgren 6-3 6-4.

In the 1^st round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Holmgren (6-3 6-4). During the match Kotov scored 60 points vs Holmgren’s 45. Kotov was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.

About the serving games, Kotov struck 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Pavel Kotov was exceptionally effective on serve to win 90% (26/29) of his 1st serve and 74% (14/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Holmgren twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).

Kotov has an aggregate 10-20 win-loss record in 2025, 8-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Mcdonald	Kotov
Match played	1	3
Tot Set	2	6
Tot Games	22	59
Pts	78-64	201-158
Total Points	142	359
Winners	28	78
%Winners	36%	39%

Mcdonald played 1 match while Kotov competed in 3 matches. Kotov started his run from the qualifications while Mcdonald had a direct access to the main draw. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Mcdonald has played 4 set(s) less than Kotov (2 vs 6). Therefore, Mcdonald played 37 games less than Kotov. Mackenzie scored 28 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian recorded 78 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Mcdonald	Kotov
Aces	8	12
Avg per match	8	4
1st in	38/64	96/158
%1st in	59%	61%
1st pts	28/38	78/96
%1st pts	74%	81%
2nd pts	13/26	39/62
%2nd pts	50%	63%

Mcdonald recorded 8 aces . Kotov recorded 12 aces (4 per match). Mcdonald won 74% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Kotov won 81% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 63% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Mcdonald	Kotov
Won	4	9
Converted	4/9	9/19
% Converted	44%	47%
Conceded	4	7
Saved	2	5
% Saved	50%	71%
Times Broken	2	2

Mcdonald broke his opponent 4 times with a 44% conversion rate. Mackenzie dropped his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Pavel broke his opponents 9 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Russian conceded his serve twice and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.

Mcdonald
	R1 Mayot	Total
Score	6-3 7-62
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	22	22
pts	78-64	78-64
Total points	142	142
Winners	28	28
%Winners	36%	36%
SERVE
Aces	8	8
Double Faults	3	3
1st in	38/64	38/64
% 1st in	59%	59%
1st pts	28/38	28/38
% 1st pts	74%	74%
2nd pts	13/26	13/26
% 2nd pts	50%	50%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/9	4/9
Converted %	44%	44%
Conceded	4	4
Saved	2/4	2
Saved %	50%	50%
Times Broken	2	2

Kotov
	Q1 Shin	Q3 Santillan	R1 Holmgren	Total
Score	6-4 6-1	6-4 7-68	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	17	23	19	59
pts	58-42	83-71	60-45	201-158
Total points	100	154	105	359
Winners	22	30	26	78
%Winners	38%	36%	43%	39%
SERVE
Aces	5	2	5	12
Double Faults	5	2	1	8
1st in	25/42	42/68	29/48	96/158
% 1st in	60%	62%	60%	61%
1st pts	22/25	30/42	26/29	78/96
% 1st pts	88%	71%	90%	81%
2nd pts	7/17	18/26	14/19	39/62
% 2nd pts	41%	69%	74%	63%
Breaks
Won	5	2	2	9
Converted	5/8	2/6	2/5	9/19
Converted %	63%	33%	40%	47%
Conceded	2	5	0	7
Saved	1/2	4/5	0/0	5
Saved %	50%	80%	–	130%
Times Broken	1	1	0	2

Tennis Scores in Jinan Challenger

• Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov – Taro DanielDaniel (7-6⁵ 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Arthur CazauxCazaux – Ugo BlanchetBlanchet (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Rinky HijikataHijikata – Denis YevseyevYevseyev (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Kyrian JacquetJacquet – Kasidit SamrejSamrej (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Liam DraxlDraxl – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (4-6 1-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Brandon HoltHolt – Maxim ZhukovZhukov (3-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Pavel KotovKotov – August HolmgrenHolmgren (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Adam WaltonWalton – Fajing SunSun (3-6 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Billy HarrisHarris – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (1-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Laslo DjereDjere (7-6¹⁰ 6-2) – See score progression
• Colton SmithSmith – James DuckworthDuckworth (6-4 7-6⁶) – See score progression
• Yi ZhouZhou – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (7-6² 6-4) – See score progression
• Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Harold MayotMayot (6-3 7-6²) – See score progression
• Titouan DroguetDroguet – Jie CuiCui (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Bernard TomicTomic – Dalibor SvrcinaSvrcina (6-1 0-6 6-2) – See score progression
• Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki – James McCabeMcCabe (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Arthur CazauxCazaux – Ugo BlanchetBlanchet (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Liam DraxlDraxl – Christopher O’ConnellO’Connell (4-6 1-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Rinky HijikataHijikata – Denis YevseyevYevseyev (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Kyrian JacquetJacquet – Kasidit SamrejSamrej (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Pavel KotovKotov – August HolmgrenHolmgren (6-3 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Bernard TomicTomic – Billy HarrisHarris (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Pavel KotovKotov (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon HoltHolt – Adam WaltonWalton (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Rinky HijikataHijikata – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Kyrian JacquetJacquet – (1-0) – H2H and prediction