Daniil Medvedev and Learner Tien will play each other in the 4th round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 9:00 pm on STADIUM COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.41
Learner Tien -> 2.89

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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien

This will be the 3rd time that Daniil Medvedev and Learner Tien clash against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Tien (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Tien won 5-7 7-5 4-0 ret. in the semifinal in Beijing back in September 2025.

Highlights Learner Tien vs Daniil Medvedev – Beijing 30-September-2025

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev

32 - 20win/loss

Hard
18-11
I Hard
3-2
Clay
6-4
Grass
5-3
Rank
13
High
1
LWWLWWWWWL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 41-23 20-12 6-4 10-4 5-3 0-0
2024 46-21 28-9 11-5 1-5 6-2 0-0
2023 66-18 38-8 10-3 11-4 7-3 0-0
2022 45-19 26-8 3-2 8-6 8-3 0-0
2021 63-13 33-5 5-3 18-3 7-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 18, Medvedev got to the 4th round after defeating Dalibor Svrcina 6-1 6-1 and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3 7-6(5).

In the 3rd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Davidovich Fokina (6-3 7-65). During the match, Medvedev scored 79 points vs Davidovich Fokina’s 62. Daniil was quite aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Regarding the service games, Medvedev recorded 9 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Daniil Medvedev was very effective on serve to win 94% (33/35) of his 1st serve and 58% (15/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Davidovich Fokina once after converting 11% of his break points (1/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Russian hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 61% of the points he played.

Medvedev has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (489-202). 18-11 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Medvedev has a compiled 241-79 match record in the last years on hard.

Daniil’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Halle.

Daniil has an aggregate 32-20 win-loss record in 2025, 18-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Shanghai

Shanghai
Medvedev's Record

Learner Tien

Learner Tien

33 - 23win/loss

Hard
26-12
I Hard
0-0
Clay
3-7
Grass
4-4
Rank
28
High
28
WWWWWLWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 39-25 26-13 3-7 6-1 4-4 0-0
2024 63-14 53-8 0-1 10-5 0-0 0-0
2023 30-10 20-10 0-0 10-0 0-0 0-0
2022 12-11 8-5 3-3 1-3 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 36 (career-high), the American reached the 4th round after beating Miomir Kecmanovic 4-6 6-3 6-4, Corentin Moutet 4-6 6-4 6-4 and Cameron Norrie 7-6(4) 6-3.

In the 3rd round, Tien had a good straight sets win against Norrie (7-64 6-3). During the match Tien scored 78 points vs Norrie’s 65. The American was very aggressive to blast 34 winners.

Talking about serving, Tien scored 4 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Learner Tien lost the serve twice and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Tien put 62% of his first serves in, winning 74% (34/46) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Norrie 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Tien has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Learner’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Beijing.

Tien has a compiled 33-23 win-loss record in 2025, 26-12 on hard (See FULL STATS)

.

Previously in Shanghai

The American has never competed in this tournament before.

Shanghai
Tien's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

D.Medvedev
L.Tien
2h:51
2h:51
Time on court​
!
6h:29
6h:29
1h:51
1h:51
Last match​
1h:47
1h:47
2
2
Match played
!
3
3
36
36
Games Played​
81
81
4
4
Set played​​
8
8
134
134
Total points​
265
265
67
67
Avg point​
88.3
88.3
57
57
Winners
107
107
28.5
28.5
Avg Winners​
35.7
35.7
43%
43%
Ratio winners
40%
40%
-- Serve --
11
11
Aces
17
17
5.5
5.5
Avg Aces
5.7
5.7
3
3
Double Faults
12
12
1.5
1.5
Avg Double Faults
4
4
57/64
57/64
1st won total​
107/150
107/150
!
89%
89%
1st won %
!
71%
71%
19/32
19/32
2nd won total​
46/89
46/89
59%
59%
2nd won %
52%
52%
-- Break Points --
6/18
6/18
BP won
13/27
13/27
3/9
3/9
Avg BP won
4.3/9
4.3/9
33%
33%
Won
48%
48%
1
1
Conceded
24
24
0.5
0.5
Avg Conceded
8
8
0
0
Broken
9
9
!
0
0
Avg Broken
3
3
1
1
Saved
15
15
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Medvedev Tien
Match played 2 3
Tot Set 4 8
Tot Games 36 81
Pts 134-85 265-239
Total Points 219 504
Winners 57 107
%Winners 43% 40%

Medvedev played 2 matches while Tien competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Learner Tien dropped 2 sets while Daniil Medvedev hasn’t lost a set so far. Medvedev has played 4 set(s) less than Tien (4 vs 8). Therefore, Medvedev played 45 games less than Tien. Medvedev scored 57 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Learner recorded 107 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve Medvedev Tien
Aces 11 17
Avg per match 5.5 5.7
1st in 64/96 150/239
%1st in 67% 63%
1st pts 57/64 107/150
%1st pts 89% 71%
2nd pts 19/32 46/89
%2nd pts 59% 52%

Medvedev recorded 11 aces (5.5 per match). Tien blasted 17 aces (5.7 per match). Medvedev won 89% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Tien won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Medvedev Tien
Won 6 13
Converted 6/18 13/27
% Converted 33% 48%
Conceded 1 24
Saved 1 15
% Saved 100% 63%
Times Broken 0 9

The Russian broke his opponents 6 times with a 33% conversion rate. The Russian extremely effective on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 1 break points. The American broke his opponents 13 times with a 48% conversion rate. Tien conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.

Medvedev
R2
Svrcina		 R3
Davidovich Fokina		 Total
Score 6-1 6-1 6-3 7-65
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 14 22 36
pts 55-23 79-62 134-85
Total points 78 141 219
Winners 24 33 57
%Winners 44% 42% 43%
SERVE
Aces 2 9 11
Double Faults 2 1 3
1st in 29/35 35/61 64/96
% 1st in 83% 57% 67%
1st pts 24/29 33/35 57/64
% 1st pts 83% 94% 89%
2nd pts 4/6 15/26 19/32
% 2nd pts 67% 58% 59%
Breaks
Won 5 1 6
Converted 5/9 1/9 6/18
Converted % 56% 11% 33%
Conceded 0 1 1
Saved 0/0 1/1 1
Saved % – 100% 50%
Times Broken 0 0 0
Tien
R1
Kecmanovic		 R2
Moutet		 R3
Norrie		 Total
Score 4-6 6-3 6-4 4-6 6-4 6-4 7-64 6-3
Tot Set 3 3 2 8
Tot Games 29 30 22 81
pts 96-83 91-91 78-65 265-239
Total points 179 182 143 504
Winners 40 33 34 107
%Winners 42% 36% 44% 40%
SERVE
Aces 11 2 4 17
Double Faults 4 4 4 12
1st in 50/84 54/81 46/74 150/239
% 1st in 60% 67% 62% 63%
1st pts 40/50 33/54 34/46 107/150
% 1st pts 80% 61% 74% 71%
2nd pts 19/34 14/27 13/28 46/89
% 2nd pts 56% 52% 46% 52%
Breaks
Won 3 6 4 13
Converted 3/9 6/12 4/6 13/27
Converted % 33% 50% 67% 48%
Conceded 7 7 10 24
Saved 5/7 2/7 8/10 15
Saved % 71% 29% 80% 90%
Times Broken 2 5 2 9

Tennis Scores in Shanghai

Upcoming matches in the draw

Medvedev
More Stats
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Tien

Click for FULL STATS