Pablo Carreno-Busta and Hugo Grenier will fight against each other in the final of the Villena Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:00 am on PISTA CARLOS ALCARAZ. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.5
Hugo Grenier -> 2.46

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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Hugo Grenier

There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Hugo Grenier since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Ranked no. 123, Carreno-Busta got to the final after defeating Dali Blanch 6-2 4-6 6-3

, Eliakim Coulibaly 6-4 6-3, Martin Landaluce 6-3 6-1 and Petr Brunclik 6-4 6-3.

In the semifinal, Carreno-Busta had a good straight sets win against Brunclik (6-4 6-3). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 65 points vs Brunclik’s 51. Carreno-Busta was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Carreno-Busta fired 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 65% of his first serves in, winning 68% (25/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 65% (13/20) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Brunclik 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Pablo has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Carreno-Busta has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (286-192). 20-9 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Carreno-Busta has a composed 135-76 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the season was conquering the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he overcame Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he defeated Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2.

Pablo has an aggregate 35-24 win-loss record in 2025, 20-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Villena Challenger

The Spaniard has never competed in this tournament before.

Hugo Grenier

Ranked no. 195, Hugo reached the final after beating Hynek Barton 6-3 6-3, Moez Echargui 6-4 6-4, Tom Gentzsch 7-5 6-2 and Daniel Merida Aguilar 6-4 7-6(4).

In the semifinal, The French player had a good straight sets win against Merida Aguilar (6-4 7-6⁴). During the match Grenier scored 79 points vs Merida Aguilar’s 68. Hugo was extremely aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Talking about serving, Grenier fired 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Hugo Grenier was exceptionally effective on serve to win 83% (40/48) of his 1st serve and 55% (11/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Grenier broke Merida Aguilar twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The French player hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

The French player best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in the Morelia Challenger,the Porto Challenger and the Villena Challenger.

Hugo has an overall 33-29 win-loss record in 2025, 25-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Villena Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Carreno-Busta	Grenier
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	8
Tot Games	81	81
Pts	279-223	268-215
Total Points	502	483
Winners	124	126
%Winners	44%	47%

Both Carreno-Busta and Grenier played 4 matches. At the moment, Pablo Carreno-Busta surrendered 1 set while Hugo Grenier hasn’t dropped a set so far. Carreno-Busta has played 1 set more than Grenier (9 vs 8). However, it is interesting to notice that they played the same amount of games (81). Pablo scored 124 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The French player fired 126 winners (47%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Carreno-Busta	Grenier
Aces	16	23
Avg per match	4	5.8
1st in	177/262	154/234
%1st in	68%	66%
1st pts	124/177	126/154
%1st pts	70%	82%
2nd pts	48/85	45/80
%2nd pts	56%	56%

Carreno-Busta scored 16 aces (4 per match). Grenier scored 23 aces (5.8 per match). Carreno-Busta won 70% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Grenier won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Carreno-Busta	Grenier
Won	17	12
Converted	17/35	12/22
% Converted	49%	55%
Conceded	23	11
Saved	16	8
% Saved	70%	73%
Times Broken	7	3

Carreno-Busta broke his opponents 17 times with a 49% conversion rate. The Spaniard lost his serve 7 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 12 times with a 55% conversion rate. Hugo conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded.

Carreno-Busta
	R1 Blanch	R2 Coulibaly	1/4 Landaluce	1/2 Brunclik	Total
Score	6-2 4-6 6-3	6-4 6-3	6-3 6-1	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	2	2	9
Tot Games	27	19	16	19	81
pts	88-77	64-52	62-43	65-51	279-223
Total points	165	116	105	116	502
Winners	38	33	28	25	124
%Winners	43%	52%	45%	38%	44%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	5	5	16
Double Faults	2	0	1	1	4
1st in	54/84	51/69	35/52	37/57	177/262
% 1st in	64%	74%	67%	65%	68%
1st pts	38/54	33/51	28/35	25/37	124/177
% 1st pts	70%	65%	80%	68%	70%
2nd pts	16/30	10/18	9/17	13/20	48/85
% 2nd pts	53%	56%	53%	65%	56%
Breaks
Won	5	4	4	4	17
Converted	5/7	4/7	4/11	4/10	17/35
Converted %	71%	57%	36%	40%	49%
Conceded	9	6	4	4	23
Saved	6/9	4/6	4/4	2/4	16
Saved %	67%	67%	100%	50%	71%
Times Broken	3	2	0	2	7

Grenier
	R1 Barton	R2 Echargui	1/4 Gentzsch	1/2 Merida	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	6-4 6-4	7-5 6-2	6-4 7-64
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	18	20	20	23	81
pts	65-48	60-51	64-48	79-68	268-215
Total points	113	111	112	147	483
Winners	26	29	31	40	126
%Winners	40%	48%	48%	51%	47%
SERVE
Aces	3	8	5	7	23
Double Faults	4	2	4	1	11
1st in	33/57	36/52	37/57	48/68	154/234
% 1st in	58%	69%	65%	71%	66%
1st pts	26/33	29/36	31/37	40/48	126/154
% 1st pts	79%	81%	84%	83%	82%
2nd pts	13/24	12/16	9/20	11/20	45/80
% 2nd pts	54%	75%	45%	55%	56%
Breaks
Won	4	2	4	2	12
Converted	4/8	2/3	4/4	2/7	12/22
Converted %	50%	67%	100%	29%	55%
Conceded	4	2	3	2	11
Saved	3/4	2/2	2/3	1/2	8
Saved %	75%	100%	67%	50%	73%
Times Broken	1	0	1	1	3

Tennis Scores in Villena Challenger

• Sander Gille/Sem VerbeekGille/Sem Verbeek – Petr Nouza/Patrik RiklNouza/Patrik Rikl (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Hugo GrenierGrenier (0-0) – H2H and prediction