Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro will square off in the quarter of the China Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 6:00 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.52
Emma Navarro -> 2.53

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Emma Navarro

This will be the 3^rd time that Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Pegula won 6-4 1-6 6-3 in the quarter in Bad Homburg back in June 2025.

Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Emma Navarro – Bad Homburg 26-June-2025

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 7, Pegula reached the quarter after beating Ajla Tomljanovic 6-0 6-3, Emma Raducanu 3-6 7-6(9) 6-0 and Marta Kostyuk 6-3 6-7(4) 6-1.

In the 4^th round, The American defeated Kostyuk (6-3 6-7⁴ 6-1). During the match, Pegula scored 111 points vs Kostyuk’s 92. Jessica was extremely aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about the service games, Pegula was unable to score even 1 ace in the course of the match and she committed only 4 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 51% of her first serves in, winning 67% (32/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (24/46) on the 2nd serve. Jessica broke Kostyuk 8 times after converting 62% of her break points (8/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has surrendered 2 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points she played.

Pegula has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (350-176). 30-10 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has an overall 234-100 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Austin where she beat Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she beat Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Bad Homburg where she defeated Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 7-5.

Jessica has an aggregate 46-19 win-loss record in 2025, 30-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Emma Navarro

Ranked no. 17, Emma reached the quarter after defeating Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-3 7-6(0), Lois Boisson 6-2 1-0 ret. and Iga Swiatek 6-4 4-6 6-0.

In the 4^th round, Emma defeated Swiatek (6-4 4-6 6-0). During the match Navarro scored 99 points vs Swiatek’s 85. The American was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.

About the serving games, Navarro recorded 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Emma Navarro lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Navarro put 63% of her first serves in, winning 73% (40/55) of the points behind her 1st serve and 41% (13/32) on the 2nd serve. Emma broke Swiatek 6 times after converting 40% of her break points (6/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Merida where she overcame Emiliana Arango in the final 6-0 6-0.

Emma has a composed 32-23 win-loss record in 2025, 17-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Previously, her best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2024. See her history

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Pegula	Navarro
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	8	8
Tot Games	72	57
Pts	273-221	221-179
Total Points	494	400
Winners	99	85
%Winners	36%	38%

Both Pegula and Navarro played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jessica Pegula dropped 2 sets, while Emma Navarro lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Navarro have played the same amount of sets 8. However, Pegula played 15 games more than Navarro. Pegula scored 99 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Navarro made 85 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Pegula	Navarro
Aces	10	6
Avg per match	3.3	2
1st in	140/241	123/199
%1st in	58%	62%
1st pts	99/140	85/123
%1st pts	71%	69%
2nd pts	53/101	35/76
%2nd pts	52%	46%

Pegula blasted 10 aces (3.3 per match). Navarro fired 6 aces (2 per match). Pegula won 71% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Navarro won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Pegula	Navarro
Won	17	14
Converted	17/31	14/29
% Converted	55%	48%
Conceded	15	21
Saved	9	14
% Saved	60%	67%
Times Broken	6	7

Jessica broke her opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. Jessica dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. Navarro broke her opponents 14 times with a 48% conversion rate. Emma conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
	R2 Tomljanovic	R3 Raducanu	R4 Kostyuk	Total
Score	6-0 6-3	3-6 7-69 6-0	6-3 6-74 6-1
Tot Set	2	3	3	8
Tot Games	15	28	29	72
pts	58-37	104-92	111-92	273-221
Total points	95	196	203	494
Winners	26	41	32	99
%Winners	45%	39%	29%	36%
SERVE
Aces	5	5	0	10
Double Faults	3	2	4	9
1st in	32/52	60/95	48/94	140/241
% 1st in	62%	63%	51%	58%
1st pts	26/32	41/60	32/48	99/140
% 1st pts	81%	68%	67%	71%
2nd pts	11/20	18/35	24/46	53/101
% 2nd pts	55%	51%	52%	52%
Breaks
Won	4	5	8	17
Converted	4/6	5/12	8/13	17/31
Converted %	67%	42%	62%	55%
Conceded	0	7	8	15
Saved	0/0	4/7	5/8	9
Saved %	–	57%	63%	40%
Times Broken	0	3	3	6

Navarro
	R2 Gabriela Ruse	R3 Boisson	R4 Swiatek	Total
Score	6-3 7-60	6-2 1-0 ret.	6-4 4-6 6-0
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	22	9	26	57
pts	87-69	35-25	99-85	221-179
Total points	156	60	184	400
Winners	32	13	40	85
%Winners	37%	37%	40%	38%
SERVE
Aces	2	2	2	6
Double Faults	4	2	3	9
1st in	50/81	18/31	55/87	123/199
% 1st in	62%	58%	63%	62%
1st pts	32/50	13/18	40/55	85/123
% 1st pts	64%	72%	73%	69%
2nd pts	15/31	7/13	13/32	35/76
% 2nd pts	48%	54%	41%	46%
Breaks
Won	5	3	6	14
Converted	5/10	3/4	6/15	14/29
Converted %	50%	75%	40%	48%
Conceded	13	1	7	21
Saved	9/13	1/1	4/7	14
Saved %	69%	100%	57%	75%
Times Broken	4	0	3	7

Tennis Scores in Beijing

• Miyu Kato/Fanny StollarKato/Fanny Stollar – Timea Babos/Luisa StefaniBabos/Luisa Stefani (6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (6-7⁴ 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Cori GauffGauff – Eva LysLys (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Marcelo ArevaloArevalo (7-6⁴ 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Danilo PetrovicPetrovic – Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Sumit NagalNagal – Aslan KaratsevKaratsev (6-4 7-6⁴) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Hugo DellienDellien – Tommy RobredoRobredo (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Ariel Behar/Gonzalo EscobarBehar/Gonzalo Escobar – Fabricio Neis/Fernando RomboliNeis/Fernando Romboli (7-6⁴ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Emma NavarroNavarro – Jessica PegulaPegula (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Cori GauffGauff (1-1) – H2H and prediction