Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto will face off in the 1^st round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 6:30 pm on SHOW COURT 3. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Arnaldi who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Matteo Arnaldi is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.49
Rei Sakamoto -> 2.62

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Prediction and head to head Matteo Arnaldi vs. Rei Sakamoto

There is no head to head record between Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 73, Arnaldi will start his run in Shanghai after he played his last match in Tokyo where he lost 7-5 6-2 to Fucsovics

in the qualifications on the 23^rd of September.

Arnaldi has a compiled 19-22 win-loss record in 2025, 10-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).

The Italian’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Delray Beach.

Talking about his overall career, The Italian has an overall 235-156 record. He has a positive 84-54 record on hard.

Previously in Shanghai

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023 and 2024. See his history.

Rei Sakamoto

Ranked no. 190, the Japanese reached the 1^st round after defeating Brandon Holt 6-1 7-5 and Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-4 6-3.

In the qualifications, Rei had a good straight sets win against Mcdonald (6-4 6-3). During the match Sakamoto scored 54 points vs Mcdonald’s 42. The Japanese was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.

Talking about serving, Sakamoto bagged 9 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Rei Sakamoto conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 73% of his first serves in, win 92% (34/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (7/14) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Mcdonald twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Japanese started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 59% of the points he played.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Cary Challenger where he defeated Liam Draxl in the final 6-1 6-4.

The Japanese has a composed 27-21 win-loss record in 2025, 22-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Shanghai

Rei has never competed in this tournament before.

Tennis Scores in Shanghai

• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Tristan Schoolkate
  Schoolkate (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Mattia BellucciBellucci – Adam WaltonWalton (7-6⁶ 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Zizou BergsBergs – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Valentin VacherotVacherot – Laslo DjereDjere (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Sebastian BaezBaez – Zhizhen ZhangZhang (2-6 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (7-5 7-6⁵) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Luca NardiNardi – Sebastian OfnerOfner (3-6 6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (4-6 7-5 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jordan ThompsonThompson – August HolmgrenHolmgren (4-6 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (6-1 4-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Marin CilicCilic – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-3 7-6⁵) – Stats, scores, rankings
• David GoffinGoffin – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-7⁶ 6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (2-6 6-3 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Marin CilicCilic – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (2-19) – H2H and prediction
• Damir DzumhurDzumhur – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald – Quentin HalysHalys (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander BublikBublik – Valentin VacherotVacherot (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Nuno BorgesBorges (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Benjamin BonziBonzi (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Andrey RublevRublev – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (3-2) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Jannik SinnerSinner (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Flavio CobolliCobolli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Zizou BergsBergs – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Jordan ThompsonThompson (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Aleksandar KovacevicKovacevic – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Yibing WuWu – Dalibor SvrcinaSvrcina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – James Kent TrotterKent Trotter (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Terence AtmaneAtmane (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sebastian BaezBaez – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (3-3) – H2H and prediction
• Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Valentin RoyerRoyer – Mariano NavoneNavone (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Ugo BlanchetBlanchet (2-1) – H2H and prediction