Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk will clash against each other in the 4^th round of the China Open for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 9:30 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.55
Marta Kostyuk -> 2.45

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Marta Kostyuk

This will be the 5^th time that Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Pegula won 6-2 6-3 in the 4^th round in Miami back in March 2025.

Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk – Miami 24-March-2025

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 7, Pegula reached the 4^th round after defeating Ajla Tomljanovic 6-0 6-3 and Emma Raducanu 3-6 7-6(9) 6-0.

In the 3^rd round against Raducanu, Pegula recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-6⁹ 6-0). During the match, Pegula scored 104 points vs Raducanu’s 92. Jessica was very aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Talking about the service games, Pegula blasted 5 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 63% of her first serves in, winning 68% (41/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 51% (18/35) on the 2nd serve. Pegula broke Raducanu 5 times after converting 42% of her break points (5/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has lost 1 set in this competition to conquer 56% of the points she played.

Pegula has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (349-176). 29-10 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has an aggregate 233-100 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Austin where she overcame Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she overcame Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Bad Homburg where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 7-5.

Jessica has a compiled 45-19 win-loss record in 2025, 29-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Marta Kostyuk

Ranked no. 28, Marta got to the 4^th round after beating Ella Seidel 6-1 6-1 and Aliaksandra Sasnovich 6-4 6-2.

In the 3^rd round, Marta had a good straight sets win against Sasnovich (6-4 6-2). During the match Kostyuk scored 66 points vs Sasnovich’s 53. Marta was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.

About the serving games, Kostyuk blasted 4 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Marta Kostyuk conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 11 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 58% of her first serves in, winning 79% (30/38) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. Kostyuk was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Sasnovich 3 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Kostyuk hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 60% of the points she played.

Marta has an aggregate 28-18 win-loss record in 2025, 19-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Pegula	Kostyuk
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	5	4
Tot Games	43	32
Pts	162-129	125-82
Total Points	291	207
Winners	67	55
%Winners	41%	44%

Both Pegula and Kostyuk played 2 matches. At the moment, Jessica Pegula surrendered 1 set while Marta Kostyuk hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Pegula has played 1 set more than Kostyuk (5 vs 4). Therefore, Pegula played 11 games more than Kostyuk. The American scored 67 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Ukrainian struck 55 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Pegula	Kostyuk
Aces	10	8
Avg per match	5	4
1st in	92/147	69/111
%1st in	63%	62%
1st pts	67/92	55/69
%1st pts	73%	80%
2nd pts	29/55	21/42
%2nd pts	53%	50%

Pegula struck 10 aces (5 per match). Kostyuk made 8 aces (4 per match). Pegula won 73% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 80% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 50% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Pegula	Kostyuk
Won	9	8
Converted	9/18	8/9
% Converted	50%	89%
Conceded	7	14
Saved	4	14
% Saved	57%	100%
Times Broken	3	0

The American broke her opponents 9 times with a 50% conversion rate. The American surrendered her serve 3 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded. Kostyuk broke her opponents 8 times with a 89% conversion rate. Kostyuk was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 14 break points.

Pegula
	R2 Tomljanovic	R3 Raducanu	Total
Score	6-0 6-3	3-6 7-69 6-0
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	15	28	43
pts	58-37	104-92	162-129
Total points	95	196	291
Winners	26	41	67
%Winners	45%	39%	41%
SERVE
Aces	5	5	10
Double Faults	3	2	5
1st in	32/52	60/95	92/147
% 1st in	62%	63%	63%
1st pts	26/32	41/60	67/92
% 1st pts	81%	68%	73%
2nd pts	11/20	18/35	29/55
% 2nd pts	55%	51%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	5	9
Converted	4/6	5/12	9/18
Converted %	67%	42%	50%
Conceded	0	7	7
Saved	0/0	4/7	4
Saved %	–	57%	29%
Times Broken	0	3	3

Kostyuk
	R2 Seidel	R3 Sasnovich	Total
Score	6-1 6-1	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	14	18	32
pts	59-29	66-53	125-82
Total points	88	119	207
Winners	25	30	55
%Winners	42%	45%	44%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	8
Double Faults	0	4	4
1st in	31/45	38/66	69/111
% 1st in	69%	58%	62%
1st pts	25/31	30/38	55/69
% 1st pts	81%	79%	80%
2nd pts	8/14	13/28	21/42
% 2nd pts	57%	46%	50%
Breaks
Won	5	3	8
Converted	5/6	3/3	8/9
Converted %	83%	100%	89%
Conceded	3	11	14
Saved	3/3	11/11	14
Saved %	100%	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0	0

Tennis Scores in Beijing

• Cori GauffGauff – Belinda BencicBencic (4-6 7-6⁴ 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Eva LysLys – Mccartney KesslerKessler (4-6 6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Emma NavarroNavarro (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Jessica PegulaPegula (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Anastasia PotapovaPotapova – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Eva LysLys – Cori GauffGauff (0-0) – H2H and prediction