Daniil Medvedev and Learner Tien will square off in the semifinal of the China Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 5:00 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 2 sets.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.32
Learner Tien -> 3.38
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Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien
This will be the 2nd time that Daniil Medvedev and Learner Tien square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Tien (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Tien won 6-3 7-6(4) 6-7(8) 1-6 7-6(7) in the 2nd round in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.
Highlights Learner Tien vs Daniil Medvedev – Australian Open 16-January-2025
Daniil Medvedev
30 - 19win/loss
13
1
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-23 | 20-12 | 6-4 | 10-4 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 18, Daniil got to the semifinal after beating Cameron Norrie 6-3 6-4, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-3 6-3 and Alexander Zverev 6-3 6-3.
In the quarter, Daniil had a good straight sets win against Zverev (6-3 6-3). During the match, Medvedev scored 63 points vs Zverev’s 46. The Russian was very aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Regarding the service games, Medvedev bagged 5 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Daniil Medvedev was very effective on serve to win 86% (30/35) of his 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Medvedev broke Zverev 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Daniil hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a fantastic match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (487-201). 16-10 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Medvedev has an overall 239-78 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Daniil’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Halle.
The Russian has an overall 30-19 win-loss record in 2025, 16-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Learner Tien
29 - 22win/loss
28
28
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39-25 | 26-13 | 3-7 | 6-1 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 63-14 | 53-8 | 0-1 | 10-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-10 | 20-10 | 0-0 | 10-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 12-11 | 8-5 | 3-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 52, the American got to the semifinal after beating Francisco Cerundolo 4-6 6-3 6-4, Flavio Cobolli 6-3 6-2 and Lorenzo Musetti 4-6 6-3 3-0 ret..
In the quarter against Musetti, the American had a free pass after Musetti retired on a 4-6 6-3 3-0 . scoreline.
The American has a composed 29-22 win-loss record in 2025, 22-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Learner has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 55 | 68 |
| Pts | 189-140 | 229-198 |
| Total Points | 329 | 427 |
| Winners | 73 | 97 |
| %Winners | 39% | 42% |
Both Medvedev and Tien played 3 matches. At the moment, Learner Tien lost 2 sets while Daniil Medvedev hasn’t dropped a set so far. Medvedev has played 3 set(s) less than Tien (6 vs 9). Therefore, Medvedev played 13 games less than Tien. The Russian scored 73 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Tien made 97 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 19 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 6.3 | 0.7 |
| 1st in | 93/151 | 148/230 |
| %1st in | 62% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 73/93 | 97/148 |
| %1st pts | 78% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 28/58 | 45/82 |
| %2nd pts | 48% | 55% |
Medvedev blasted 19 aces (6.3 per match). Tien fired 2 aces (0.7 per match). Medvedev won 78% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Tien won 66% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 13 |
| Converted | 14/24 | 13/25 |
| % Converted | 58% | 52% |
| Conceded | 9 | 18 |
| Saved | 4 | 11 |
| % Saved | 44% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 7 |
Daniil broke his opponents 14 times with a 58% conversion rate. The Russian lost his serve 5 times and he saved 44% of the break points that he conceded. Tien broke his opponents 13 times with a 52% conversion rate. Tien conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | |||||
| R1 Norrie | R2 Davidovich Fokina | 1/4 Zverev | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-3 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 18 | 18 | 55 | |
| pts | 61-43 | 65-51 | 63-46 | 189-140 | |
| Total points | 104 | 116 | 109 | 329 | |
| Winners | 22 | 21 | 30 | 73 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 32% | 48% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 9 | 5 | 5 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 27/43 | 31/56 | 35/52 | 93/151 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 55% | 67% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 22/27 | 21/31 | 30/35 | 73/93 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 68% | 86% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/16 | 11/25 | 9/17 | 28/58 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 44% | 53% | 48% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 3 | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 6/9 | 3/4 | 14/24 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 67% | 75% | 58% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 0/3 | 4/4 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | 100% | 33% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| Tien | |||||
| R1 Cerundolo | R2 Cobolli | 1/4 Musetti | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-4 | 6-3 6-2 | 4-6 6-3 3-0 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 17 | 22 | 68 | |
| pts | 94-88 | 63-45 | 72-65 | 229-198 | |
| Total points | 182 | 108 | 137 | 427 | |
| Winners | 36 | 24 | 37 | 97 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% | 51% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 56/93 | 36/59 | 56/78 | 148/230 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 61% | 72% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 36/56 | 24/36 | 37/56 | 97/148 | |
| % 1st pts | 64% | 67% | 66% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/37 | 12/23 | 14/22 | 45/82 | |
| % 2nd pts | 51% | 52% | 64% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 5/9 | 3/8 | 13/25 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 56% | 38% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 5 | 6 | 18 | |
| Saved | 3/7 | 3/5 | 5/6 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 43% | 60% | 83% | 62% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Learner TienTien – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (4-6 6-3 3-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexander ZverevZverev (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Jakub MensikMensik (4-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Karen Khachanov/Andrey RublevKhachanov/Andrey Rublev – Julian Cash/Lloyd GlasspoolCash/Lloyd Glasspool (w/o) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Learner TienTien – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (4-6 6-3 3-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexander ZverevZverev (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (10-0) – H2H and prediction