Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz will fight against each other in the final of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 6:00 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.21
Taylor Fritz -> 4.4

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz

This will be the 5^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz fight against each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Fritz won 6-3 6-2 in the R in Laver cup back in September 2025.

Carlos Alcaraz

Currently world no. 1 the Spaniard reached the final after beating Sebastian Baez 6-4 6-2, Zizou Bergs 6-4 6-3, Brandon Nakashima 6-2 6-4 and Casper Ruud 3-6 6-3 6-4.

In the semifinal against Ruud, Carlos recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 87 points vs Ruud’s 83. Carlos was very aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Regarding the service games, Alcaraz made 11 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was very efficient on serve to win 78% (40/51) of his 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Spaniard broke Ruud twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 54% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (353-83). 27-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has a compiled124-29 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret. and at the U.S. Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4.

Carlos has an aggregate 66-7 win-loss record in 2025, 27-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Alcaraz has never competed in this tournament before.

Taylor Fritz

Ranked no. 5, the American reached the final after defeating Gabriel Diallo 4-6 6-3 7-6(3), Nuno Borges 7-5 7-6(4), Sebastian Korda 6-3 6-7(5) 6-3 and Jenson Brooksby 6-4 6-3

.

In the semifinal, Fritz had a good straight sets win against Brooksby (6-4 6-3). During the match Fritz scored 67 points vs Brooksby’s 53. Fritz was quite aggressive to blast 39 winners.

Talking about serving, Fritz bagged 13 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Taylor Fritz conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 2 break points. Furthermore, Fritz put 74% of his first serves in, winning 85% (39/46) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (7/16) on the 2nd serve. Taylor broke Brooksby twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was conquering the title in Australia where he overcame Hubert Hurkacz in the final 6-4 5-7 7-6(4) and in Stuttgart where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(0) and in Eastbourne where he overcame Jenson Brooksby in the final 7-5 6-1.

Taylor has an aggregate 49-17 win-loss record in 2025, 30-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Previously, he won this tournament once in 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Fritz
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	10
Tot Games	83	107
Pts	271-230	353-317
Total Points	501	670
Winners	121	190
%Winners	45%	54%

Both Alcaraz and Fritz played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz surrendered 1 set, while Taylor Fritz conceded 2 sets. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Fritz (9 vs 10). Therefore, Alcaraz played 24 games less than Fritz. The Spaniard scored 121 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Taylor scored 190 winners (54%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Fritz
Aces	18	55
Avg per match	4.5	13.8
1st in	161/241	239/353
%1st in	67%	68%
1st pts	121/161	190/239
%1st pts	75%	79%
2nd pts	42/80	51/114
%2nd pts	53%	45%

Alcaraz fired 18 aces (4.5 per match). Fritz bagged 55 aces (13.8 per match). Alcaraz won 75% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Fritz won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Fritz
Won	14	11
Converted	14/27	11/24
% Converted	52%	46%
Conceded	12	17
Saved	7	11
% Saved	58%	65%
Times Broken	5	6

Carlos broke his opponents 14 times with a 52% conversion rate. Carlos surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded. Fritz broke his opponents 11 times with a 46% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R1 Baez	R2 Bergs	1/4 Nakashima	1/2 Ruud	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-4 6-3	6-2 6-4	3-6 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	18	19	18	28	83
pts	60-50	60-52	64-45	87-83	271-230
Total points	110	112	109	170	501
Winners	31	25	25	40	121
%Winners	52%	42%	39%	46%	45%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	1	11	18
Double Faults	2	2	1	2	7
1st in	43/56	37/60	30/45	51/80	161/241
% 1st in	77%	62%	67%	64%	67%
1st pts	31/43	25/37	25/30	40/51	121/161
% 1st pts	72%	68%	83%	78%	75%
2nd pts	5/13	9/23	12/15	16/29	42/80
% 2nd pts	38%	39%	80%	55%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	5	3	2	14
Converted	4/5	5/6	3/7	2/9	14/27
Converted %	80%	83%	43%	22%	52%
Conceded	2	6	0	4	12
Saved	1/2	3/6	0/0	3/4	7
Saved %	50%	50%	–	75%	44%
Times Broken	1	3	0	1	5

Fritz
	R1 Diallo	R2 Borges	1/4 Korda	1/2 Brooksby	Total
Score	4-6 6-3 7-63	7-5 7-64	6-3 6-75 6-3	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	10
Tot Games	32	25	31	19	107
pts	95-92	87-75	104-97	67-53	353-317
Total points	187	162	201	120	670
Winners	56	36	59	39	190
%Winners	59%	41%	57%	58%	54%
SERVE
Aces	13	15	14	13	55
Double Faults	4	1	3	0	8
1st in	74/105	43/66	76/120	46/62	239/353
% 1st in	70%	65%	63%	74%	68%
1st pts	56/74	36/43	59/76	39/46	190/239
% 1st pts	76%	84%	78%	85%	79%
2nd pts	16/31	7/23	21/44	7/16	51/114
% 2nd pts	52%	30%	48%	44%	45%
Breaks
Won	2	4	3	2	11
Converted	2/2	4/13	3/5	2/4	11/24
Converted %	100%	31%	60%	50%	46%
Conceded	3	5	7	2	17
Saved	1/3	2/5	6/7	2/2	11
Saved %	33%	40%	86%	100%	65%
Times Broken	2	3	1	0	6

Upcoming matches in the draw

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