Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur will face off in the semifinal of the China Open for the 11th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 2:00 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.158
Alex De Minaur -> 5.3
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Alex De Minaur
This will be the 11th time that Jannik Sinner and Alex De Minaur square off. The head to head is 10-0 for Sinner (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Sinner won 6-3 6-2 6-1 in the quarter in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.
Highlights Jannik Sinner vs Alex De Minaur – Australian Open 22-January-2025
Jannik Sinner
40 - 5win/loss
2
1
WWWWWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58-6 | 24-3 | 11-2 | 15-0 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 73-8 | 40-5 | 11-2 | 13-0 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 64-15 | 28-7 | 8-3 | 20-2 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-16 | 21-6 | 15-4 | 7-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-22 | 22-8 | 10-6 | 17-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Sinner reached the semifinal after beating Marin Cilic 6-2 6-2, Terence Atmane 6-4 5-7 6-0 and Fabian Marozsan 6-1 7-5.
In the quarter, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Marozsan (6-1 7-5). During the match, Sinner scored 63 points vs Marozsan’s 43. Sinner was extremely aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sinner made 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Jannik Sinner lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 57% of his first serves in, winning 70% (21/30) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (14/23) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Marozsan 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jannik has surrendered 1 set in this competition to win 58% of the points he played.
Sinner has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 75% of his matches (386-126). 21-2 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Sinner has an overall159-48 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.
His best result of the year was winning the title at the Australian Open where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 and at the Wimbledon where he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4.
Sinner has an overall 40-5 win-loss record in 2025, 21-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Alex De Minaur
47 - 17win/loss
7
6
LWLLLWWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56-24 | 30-11 | 10-5 | 13-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, Alex reached the semifinal after defeating Bu Yunchaokete 6-4 6-0, Arthur Rinderknech 6-3 3-6 7-6(2) and Jakub Mensik 4-1 ret..
In the quarter against Mensik, De Minaur had a free pass after Mensik retired on a 4-1 . scoreline.
His best result of the season was winning the title in Washington where he defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final 5-7 6-1 7-6(3).
Alex has an aggregate 47-17 win-loss record in 2025, 27-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Beijing
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sinner | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 63 | 52 |
| Pts | 220-161 | 180-143 |
| Total Points | 381 | 323 |
| Winners | 88 | 77 |
| %Winners | 40% | 43% |
Both Sinner and De Minaur played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jannik Sinner conceded 1 set, while Alex De Minaur surrendered 1 set. Talking about their workload, Sinner and De Minaur have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Sinner played 11 games more than De Minaur. Jannik scored 88 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, De Minaur struck 77 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sinner | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 19 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 6.3 |
| 1st in | 124/192 | 98/143 |
| %1st in | 65% | 69% |
| 1st pts | 88/124 | 77/98 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 37/68 | 31/45 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 69% |
Sinner fired 13 aces (4.3 per match). De Minaur recorded 19 aces (6.3 per match). Sinner won 71% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, De Minaur won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 69% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sinner | De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 7 |
| Converted | 15/32 | 7/19 |
| % Converted | 47% | 37% |
| Conceded | 12 | 6 |
| Saved | 8 | 5 |
| % Saved | 67% | 83% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 |
The Italian broke his opponents 15 times with a 47% conversion rate. Sinner surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The Australian broke his opponents 7 times with a 37% conversion rate. Alex conceded his serve once and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.
| Sinner | |||||
| R1 Cilic |
R2 Atmane |
1/4 Marozsan |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 | 6-4 5-7 6-0 | 6-1 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 28 | 19 | 63 | |
| pts | 62-38 | 95-80 | 63-43 | 220-161 | |
| Total points | 100 | 175 | 106 | 381 | |
| Winners | 27 | 40 | 21 | 88 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 42% | 33% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 36/47 | 58/92 | 30/53 | 124/192 | |
| % 1st in | 77% | 63% | 57% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 27/36 | 40/58 | 21/30 | 88/124 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 69% | 70% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 7/11 | 16/34 | 14/23 | 37/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 47% | 61% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 6/11 | 5/11 | 15/32 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 55% | 45% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 9 | 2 | 12 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 6/9 | 1/2 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 67% | 50% | 72% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| De Minaur | |||||
| R1 Yunchaokete |
R2 Rinderknech |
1/4 Mensik |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-0 | 6-3 3-6 7-62 | 4-1 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 31 | 5 | 52 | |
| pts | 63-45 | 95-85 | 22-13 | 180-143 | |
| Total points | 108 | 180 | 35 | 323 | |
| Winners | 26 | 46 | 5 | 77 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 48% | 23% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 7 | 2 | 19 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 34/51 | 58/83 | 6/9 | 98/143 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 70% | 67% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 26/34 | 46/58 | 5/6 | 77/98 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 79% | 83% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/17 | 19/25 | 3/3 | 31/45 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 76% | 100% | 69% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 4/11 | 1/4 | 2/4 | 7/19 | |
| Converted % | 36% | 25% | 50% | 37% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 80% | – | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LWLLLWWLWW Tennis Scores in Beijing
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Jakub MensikMensik (4-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Karen Khachanov/Andrey RublevKhachanov/Andrey Rublev – Julian Cash/Lloyd GlasspoolCash/Lloyd Glasspool (w/o) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Jakub MensikMensik (4-1 ret.) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexander ZverevZverev (13-7) – H2H and prediction
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (10-0) – H2H and prediction
