Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud will play each other in the semifinal of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 6:00 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.179
Casper Ruud -> 4.9

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud

This will be the 6^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 3-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Ruud won 6-1 7-5 in the R in Nitto atp finals back in 2024.

Highlights Casper Ruud vs Carlos Alcaraz – Nitto atp finals 11-November-2024

Carlos Alcaraz

Currently world no. 1 Alcaraz got to the semifinal after defeating Sebastian Baez 6-4 6-2, Zizou Bergs 6-4 6-3 and Brandon Nakashima 6-2 6-4.

In the quarter, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Nakashima (6-2 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 64 points vs Nakashima’s 45. The Spaniard was very aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Alcaraz scored just 1 ace throughout the encounter and he committed only 1 double fault. Carlos Alcaraz was pretty effective on serve to win 83% (25/30) of his 1st serve and 80% (12/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Alcaraz broke Nakashima 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (352-83). 26-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has an overall123-29 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the season was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he overcame Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret. and at the U.S. Open where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4.

Alcaraz has a composed 65-7 win-loss record in 2025, 26-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Alcaraz has never competed in this tournament before.

Casper Ruud

Ranked no. 12, Casper got to the semifinal after beating Shintaro Mochizuki 4-6 6-1 6-1, Matteo Berrettini 7-6(4) 6-2 and Aleksandar Vukic 6-3 6-2.

In the quarter, Ruud had a good straight sets win against Vukic (6-3 6-2). During the match Ruud scored 54 points vs Vukic’s 33. Casper was exceptionally aggressive to blast 32 winners.

About the serving games, Ruud bagged 9 aces and he was extremely steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Casper Ruud was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 80% (32/40) of his 1st serve and 75% (6/8) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Casper broke Vukic 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ruud has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Madrid where he overcame Jack Draper in the final 7-5 3-6 6-4.

Ruud has a composed 33-12 win-loss record in 2025, 12-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd

round in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Ruud
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	6	7
Tot Games	55	62
Pts	184-147	204-146
Total Points	331	350
Winners	81	107
%Winners	44%	52%

Both Alcaraz and Ruud played 3 matches. At the moment, Casper Ruud dropped 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Ruud (6 vs 7). Therefore, Alcaraz played 7 games less than Ruud. Alcaraz scored 81 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Norwegian fired 107 winners (52%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Ruud
Aces	7	22
Avg per match	2.3	7.3
1st in	110/161	130/168
%1st in	68%	77%
1st pts	81/110	107/130
%1st pts	74%	82%
2nd pts	26/51	18/38
%2nd pts	51%	47%

Alcaraz bagged 7 aces (2.3 per match). Ruud managed to score 22 aces (7.3 per match). Alcaraz won 74% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Ruud won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 47% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Ruud
Won	12	11
Converted	12/18	11/20
% Converted	67%	55%
Conceded	8	8
Saved	4	6
% Saved	50%	75%
Times Broken	4	2

The Spaniard broke his opponents 12 times with a 67% conversion rate. Carlos surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. The Norwegian broke his opponents 11 times with a 55% conversion rate. Casper conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R1 Baez	R2 Bergs	1/4 Nakashima	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-4 6-3	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	18	19	18	55
pts	60-50	60-52	64-45	184-147
Total points	110	112	109	331
Winners	31	25	25	81
%Winners	52%	42%	39%	44%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	1	7
Double Faults	2	2	1	5
1st in	43/56	37/60	30/45	110/161
% 1st in	77%	62%	67%	68%
1st pts	31/43	25/37	25/30	81/110
% 1st pts	72%	68%	83%	74%
2nd pts	5/13	9/23	12/15	26/51
% 2nd pts	38%	39%	80%	51%
Breaks
Won	4	5	3	12
Converted	4/5	5/6	3/7	12/18
Converted %	80%	83%	43%	67%
Conceded	2	6	0	8
Saved	1/2	3/6	0/0	4
Saved %	50%	50%	–	33%
Times Broken	1	3	0	4

Ruud
	R1 Mochizuki	R2 Berrettini	1/4 Vukic	Total
Score	4-6 6-1 6-1	7-64 6-2	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	24	21	17	62
pts	84-58	66-55	54-33	204-146
Total points	142	121	87	350
Winners	39	36	32	107
%Winners	46%	55%	59%	52%
SERVE
Aces	10	3	9	22
Double Faults	2	1	0	3
1st in	48/63	42/57	40/48	130/168
% 1st in	76%	74%	83%	77%
1st pts	39/48	36/42	32/40	107/130
% 1st pts	81%	86%	80%	82%
2nd pts	4/15	8/15	6/8	18/38
% 2nd pts	27%	53%	75%	47%
Breaks
Won	6	2	3	11
Converted	6/13	2/3	3/4	11/20
Converted %	46%	67%	75%	55%
Conceded	6	0	2	8
Saved	4/6	0/0	2/2	6
Saved %	67%	–	100%	56%
Times Broken	2	0	0	2

Tennis Scores in Tokyo

• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Sebastian KordaKorda (6-3 6-7⁵ 6-3) – See score progression
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Holger RuneRune (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Aleksandar VukicVukic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Alexander Erler/Robert GallowayErler/Robert Galloway – Santiago Gonzalez/David PelGonzalez/David Pel (6-7⁴ 7-6⁵ 12-10) – See score progression
• Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King – Kaito Uesugi/Seita WatanabeUesugi/Seita Watanabe (3-6 6-4 10-2) – See score progression
• Rohan Bopanna/Takeru YuzukiBopanna/Takeru Yuzuki – Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni (7-6⁵ 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Aleksandar VukicVukic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Holger RuneRune (6-3 6-3) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Casper RuudRuud (4-1) – H2H and prediction