Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima will face off in the quarter of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 6:00 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.088
Brandon Nakashima -> 7.5

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Brandon Nakashima

This will be the 3^rd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Brandon Nakashima fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Alcaraz won 4-3(4) 4-1 4-3(4) in the R in Next gen atp finals back in 2021.

Carlos Alcaraz

Currently world no. 1 the Spaniard got to the quarter after defeating Sebastian Baez 6-4 6-2 and Zizou Bergs 6-4 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Bergs (6-4 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 60 points vs Bergs’s 52. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Alcaraz blasted 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 62% of his first serves in, winning 68% (25/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (9/23) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Bergs 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carlos hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (351-83). 25-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has an aggregate122-29 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he overcame Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret. and at the U.S. Open where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4.

Alcaraz has a compiled 64-7 win-loss record in 2025, 25-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Alcaraz has never competed in this tournament before.

Brandon Nakashima

Ranked no. 33, the American got to the quarter after defeating Jordan Thompson 6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-2 and Marton Fucsovics 7-5 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Fucsovics (7-5 6-3). During the match Nakashima scored 78 points vs Fucsovics’s 63. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Talking about serving, Nakashima managed to score 6 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Brandon Nakashima was pretty effective on serve to win 71% (35/49) of his 1st serve and 52% (12/23) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Brandon broke Fucsovics 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Nakashima has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Nakashima’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Acapulco, Houston and Chengdu.

The American has a compiled 31-24 win-loss record in 2025, 19-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2022 and 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Nakashima
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	5
Tot Games	37	55
Pts	120-102	201-175
Total Points	222	376
Winners	56	90
%Winners	47%	45%

Both Alcaraz and Nakashima played 2 matches. At the moment, Brandon Nakashima dropped 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Nakashima (4 vs 5). Therefore, Alcaraz played 18 games less than Nakashima. Alcaraz scored 56 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Brandon fired 90 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Nakashima
Aces	6	16
Avg per match	3	8
1st in	80/116	124/188
%1st in	69%	66%
1st pts	56/80	90/124
%1st pts	70%	73%
2nd pts	14/36	35/64
%2nd pts	39%	55%

Alcaraz fired 6 aces (3 per match). Nakashima recorded 16 aces (8 per match). Alcaraz won 70% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 39% of the points. On the other side, Nakashima won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Nakashima
Won	9	6
Converted	9/11	6/13
% Converted	82%	46%
Conceded	8	15
Saved	4	13
% Saved	50%	87%
Times Broken	4	2

Alcaraz broke his opponents 9 times with a 82% conversion rate. The Spaniard lost his serve 4 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Brandon broke his opponents 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve twice and he saved 87% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R1 Baez	R2 Bergs	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	18	19	37
pts	60-50	60-52	120-102
Total points	110	112	222
Winners	31	25	56
%Winners	52%	42%	47%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	6
Double Faults	2	2	4
1st in	43/56	37/60	80/116
% 1st in	77%	62%	69%
1st pts	31/43	25/37	56/80
% 1st pts	72%	68%	70%
2nd pts	5/13	9/23	14/36
% 2nd pts	38%	39%	39%
Breaks
Won	4	5	9
Converted	4/5	5/6	9/11
Converted %	80%	83%	82%
Conceded	2	6	8
Saved	1/2	3/6	4
Saved %	50%	50%	50%
Times Broken	1	3	4

Nakashima
	R1 Thompson	R2 Fucsovics	Total
Score	6-76 7-64 6-2	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	5
Tot Games	34	21	55
pts	123-112	78-63	201-175
Total points	235	141	376
Winners	55	35	90
%Winners	45%	45%	45%
SERVE
Aces	10	6	16
Double Faults	1	0	1
1st in	75/116	49/72	124/188
% 1st in	65%	68%	66%
1st pts	55/75	35/49	90/124
% 1st pts	73%	71%	73%
2nd pts	23/41	12/23	35/64
% 2nd pts	56%	52%	55%
Breaks
Won	3	3	6
Converted	3/7	3/6	6/13
Converted %	43%	50%	46%
Conceded	10	5	15
Saved	9/10	4/5	13
Saved %	90%	80%	85%
Times Broken	1	1	2

Tennis Scores in Tokyo

• Rohan Bopanna/Takeru YuzukiBopanna/Takeru Yuzuki – Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni (7-6⁵ 7-6⁴) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Casper RuudRuud – Aleksandar VukicVukic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (2-0) – H2H and prediction