Karolina Muchova and Paula Badosa will square off in the 3^rd round of the China Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 5:00 pm on LOTUS. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Karolina Muchova who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Karolina Muchova is the pick to win this match.
Karolina Muchova -> 1.64
Paula Badosa -> 2.26

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Prediction and head to head Karolina Muchova vs. Paula Badosa

This will be the 4^th time that Karolina Muchova and Paula Badosa square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Badosa (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Badosa won 6-3 6-2 in the 1^st round in at the Wimbledon back in 2024.

Karolina Muchova

Ranked no. 15, Karolina reached the 3^rd round after beating Sorana Cirstea 6-2 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Karolina had a good straight sets win against Cirstea (6-2 6-3). During the match, Muchova scored 66 points vs Cirstea’s 46. Karolina was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about the service games, Muchova scored just 1 ace in the course of the match and she was quite steady in conceding no double faults. Karolina Muchova was quite effective on serve to win 73% (24/33) of her 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Karolina broke Cirstea 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).

Muchova has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (247-121). 18-9 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Muchova has an overall 130-54 record in the last years on hard.

Muchova’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Australia, Linz and Dubai.

The Czech has an aggregate 21-13 win-loss record in 2025, 18-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Paula Badosa

Ranked no. 18, the Spaniard reached the 3^rd round after beating Antonia Ruzic 6-3 7-6(2).

In the 2^nd round, Badosa had a good straight sets win against Ruzic (6-3 7-6²). During the match Badosa scored 70 points vs Ruzic’s 63. Paula was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.

About the serving games, Badosa fired 7 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Overall, Paula Badosa was pretty effective on serve to win 74% (28/38) of her 1st serve and 52% (15/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Paula broke Ruzic 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Paula’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in at the Australian Open .

Paula has a compiled 18-12 win-loss record in 2025, 13-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2024. See her history

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Muchova	Badosa
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	17	22
Pts	66-46	70-63
Total Points	112	133
Winners	24	28
%Winners	36%	40%

Both Muchova and Badosa played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Muchova and Badosa have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Muchova played 5 games less than Badosa. The Czech scored 24 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Paula managed to score 28 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Muchova	Badosa
Aces	1	7
Avg per match	1	7
1st in	33/51	38/67
%1st in	65%	57%
1st pts	24/33	28/38
%1st pts	73%	74%
2nd pts	12/18	15/29
%2nd pts	67%	52%

Muchova struck 1 ace . Badosa also fired 7 aces . Muchova won 73% points on her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 67% of the points. On the other side, Badosa won 74% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Muchova	Badosa
Won	4	4
Converted	4/9	4/8
% Converted	44%	50%
Conceded	1	3
Saved	1	1
% Saved	100%	33%
Times Broken	0	2

Muchova broke her opponent 4 times with a 44% conversion rate. Muchova pretty solid on her serve as she has never lost a single service game after saving 1 break points. Badosa broke her opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. Paula conceded her serve twice and she saved 33% of the break points that she conceded.

Muchova
	R2 Cirstea	Total
Score	6-2 6-3
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	17	17
pts	66-46	66-46
Total points	112	112
Winners	24	24
%Winners	36%	36%
SERVE
Aces	1	1
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	33/51	33/51
% 1st in	65%	65%
1st pts	24/33	24/33
% 1st pts	73%	73%
2nd pts	12/18	12/18
% 2nd pts	67%	67%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/9	4/9
Converted %	44%	44%
Conceded	1	1
Saved	1/1	1
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

Badosa
	R2 Ruzic	Total
Score	6-3 7-62
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	22	22
pts	70-63	70-63
Total points	133	133
Winners	28	28
%Winners	40%	40%
SERVE
Aces	7	7
Double Faults	7	7
1st in	38/67	38/67
% 1st in	57%	57%
1st pts	28/38	28/38
% 1st pts	74%	74%
2nd pts	15/29	15/29
% 2nd pts	52%	52%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/8	4/8
Converted %	50%	50%
Conceded	3	3
Saved	1/3	1
Saved %	33%	33%
Times Broken	2	2

Tennis Scores in Beijing

• Marcelo ArevaloArevalo – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva – Pedro SousaSousa (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tommy RobredoRobredo – Riccardo BalzeraniBalzerani (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Danilo PetrovicPetrovic – Nino SerdarusicSerdarusic (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Sumit NagalNagal – Martin CuevasCuevas (6-3 2-1 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Sebastian FanselowFanselow (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Jose Hernandez-FernandezHernandez-Fernandez (7-5 3-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Hugo DellienDellien – Renzo OlivoOlivo (6-2 6-7⁴ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich (4-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Cristina BucsaBucsa (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Emiliana ArangoArango – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Maria Camila Osorio SerranoCamila Osorio Serrano (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Zeynep SonmezSonmez – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Sofia KeninKenin (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (4-3) – H2H and prediction
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Shuai ZhangZhang – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Eva LysLys (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Mccartney KesslerKessler – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Belinda BencicBencic – Priscilla HonHon (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Cori GauffGauff (0-2) – H2H and prediction