Jasmine Paolini and Sofia Kenin will face off in the 3^rd round of the China Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:30 pm on CAPITAL GROUP DIAMOND. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jasmine Paolini who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jasmine Paolini is the pick to win this match.
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.31
Sofia Kenin -> 3.45

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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Sofia Kenin

This will be the 4^th time that Jasmine Paolini and Sofia Kenin face off. The head to head is 3-0 for Kenin (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Kenin won 6-4 6-0 in the 3^rd round in Dubai back in February 2025.

Jasmine Paolini

Ranked no. 8, the Italian reached the 3^rd round after beating Anastasija Sevastova 6-1 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Sevastova (6-1 6-3). During the match, Paolini scored 65 points vs Sevastova’s 44. Paolini was extremely aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Regarding the service games, Paolini bagged 3 aces and she was exceptionally consistent in conceding no double faults. Jasmine Paolini conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 7 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 70% of her first serves in, winning 65% (28/43) of the points behind her 1st serve and 72% (13/18) on the 2nd serve. Paolini broke Sevastova 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Paolini has good match record in the last 10 years having won 59% of her matches (349-246). 20-9 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Paolini has a compiled 124-95 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Rome where she overcame Cori Gauff in the final 6-4 6-2.

Paolini has an overall 39-15 win-loss record in 2025, 20-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Sofia Kenin

Ranked no. 26, Kenin got to the 3^rd round after beating Polina Kudermetova 6-4 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Kudermetova (6-4 6-2). During the match Kenin scored 72 points vs Kudermetova’s 56. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Talking about serving, Kenin bagged 2 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Sofia Kenin was exceptionally effective on serve to win 79% (23/29) of her 1st serve and 67% (16/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Kenin broke Kudermetova 3 times after converting 25% of her break points (3/12).

Kenin’s best result of the season was getting to the final in Charleston.

Kenin has a composed 27-21 win-loss record in 2025, 15-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Beijing

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2019. See her history

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Paolini	Kenin
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	16	18
Pts	65-44	72-56
Total Points	109	128
Winners	28	23
%Winners	43%	32%

Both Paolini and Kenin played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Paolini and Kenin have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Paolini played 2 games less than Kenin. The Italian scored 28 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The American bagged 23 winners (32%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Paolini	Kenin
Aces	3	2
Avg per match	3	2
1st in	43/61	29/53
%1st in	70%	55%
1st pts	28/43	23/29
%1st pts	65%	79%
2nd pts	13/18	16/24
%2nd pts	72%	67%

Paolini recorded 3 aces . Kenin bagged 2 aces . Paolini won 65% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 72% of the points. On the other side, Kenin won 79% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 67% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Paolini	Kenin
Won	4	3
Converted	4/8	3/12
% Converted	50%	25%
Conceded	7	2
Saved	7	2
% Saved	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

The Italian broke her opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. Jasmine pretty solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 7 break points. Sofia broke her opponent 3 times with a 25% conversion rate. Sofia was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points.

Paolini
	R2 Sevastova	Total
Score	6-1 6-3
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	16	16
pts	65-44	65-44
Total points	109	109
Winners	28	28
%Winners	43%	43%
SERVE
Aces	3	3
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	43/61	43/61
% 1st in	70%	70%
1st pts	28/43	28/43
% 1st pts	65%	65%
2nd pts	13/18	13/18
% 2nd pts	72%	72%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/8	4/8
Converted %	50%	50%
Conceded	7	7
Saved	7/7	7
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

Kenin
	R2 Kudermetova	Total
Score	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	18	18
pts	72-56	72-56
Total points	128	128
Winners	23	23
%Winners	32%	32%
SERVE
Aces	2	2
Double Faults	4	4
1st in	29/53	29/53
% 1st in	55%	55%
1st pts	23/29	23/29
% 1st pts	79%	79%
2nd pts	16/24	16/24
% 2nd pts	67%	67%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/12	3/12
Converted %	25%	25%
Conceded	2	2
Saved	2/2	2
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

Tennis Scores in Beijing

• Marcelo ArevaloArevalo – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva – Pedro SousaSousa (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tommy RobredoRobredo – Riccardo BalzeraniBalzerani (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Danilo PetrovicPetrovic – Nino SerdarusicSerdarusic (6-3 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Sumit NagalNagal – Martin CuevasCuevas (6-3 2-1 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Aslan KaratsevKaratsev – Sebastian FanselowFanselow (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Jose Hernandez-FernandezHernandez-Fernandez (7-5 3-0 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Hugo DellienDellien – Renzo OlivoOlivo (6-2 6-7⁴ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Aliaksandra SasnovichSasnovich (4-0) – H2H and prediction
• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Cristina BucsaBucsa (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Emiliana ArangoArango – Qinwen ZhengZheng (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Maria Camila Osorio SerranoCamila Osorio Serrano (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Zeynep SonmezSonmez – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Sofia KeninKenin (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Marie BouzkovaBouzkova (4-3) – H2H and prediction
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Shuai ZhangZhang – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Eva LysLys (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Mccartney KesslerKessler – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Belinda BencicBencic – Priscilla HonHon (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Cori GauffGauff (0-2) – H2H and prediction