Sebastian Korda and Sho Shimabukuro will fight against each other in the 2^nd round of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 12:30 pm on COLOSSEUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Korda who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Sebastian Korda is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Korda -> 1.39
Sho Shimabukuro -> 3

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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Korda vs. Sho Shimabukuro

There is no head to head record between Sebastian Korda and Sho Shimabukuro since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Sebastian Korda

Ranked no. 74, Korda got to the 2^nd round after defeating Marcos Giron 4-6 6-3 7-6(4).

In the 1^st round against Giron, Korda recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 7-6⁴). During the match, Korda scored 104 points vs Giron’s 101. Sebastian was very aggressive to blast 48 winners.

Regarding the service games, Korda fired 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Sebastian Korda lost the serve twice and he saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Korda put 56% of his first serves in, winning 80% (48/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (23/48) on the 2nd serve. Sebastian broke Giron twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).

Korda has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (258-168). 11-6 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Korda has a composed 110-71 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Sebastian’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Adelaide.

Sebastian has a composed 16-12 win-loss record in 2025, 11-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Sebastian has never competed in this tournament before.

Sho Shimabukuro

Ranked no. 273, Sho got to the 2^nd round after beating Mariano Navone 6-2 6-3, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-4 6-3 and Tomas Machac 6-3 7-6(4).

In the 1^st round, Sho had a good straight sets win against Machac (6-3 7-6⁴). During the match Shimabukuro scored 80 points vs Machac’s 67. Sho was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about serving, Shimabukuro blasted 5 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Sho Shimabukuro was quite effective on serve to win 71% (27/38) of his 1st serve and 77% (20/26) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Sho broke Machac twice after converting 17% of his break points (2/12).

His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Zhangjiagang Challenger where he defeated Oliver Crawford in the final 6-3 3-6 7-5.

The Japanese has an overall 20-18 win-loss record in 2025, 17-15 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Korda	Shimabukuro
Match played	1	3
Tot Set	3	6
Tot Games	32	58
Pts	104-101	207-168
Total Points	205	375
Winners	48	82
%Winners	46%	40%

Korda played 1 match while Shimabukuro competed in 3 matches. Shimabukuro started his run from the qualifications while Korda had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Sebastian Korda surrendered 1 set while Sho Shimabukuro hasn’t lost a set so far. Korda has played 3 set(s) less than Shimabukuro (3 vs 6). Therefore, Korda played 26 games less than Shimabukuro. Sebastian scored 48 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Shimabukuro managed to score 82 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Korda	Shimabukuro
Aces	8	7
Avg per match	8	2.3
1st in	60/108	111/185
%1st in	56%	60%
1st pts	48/60	82/111
%1st pts	80%	74%
2nd pts	23/48	47/74
%2nd pts	48%	64%

Korda managed to score 8 aces . Shimabukuro recorded 7 aces (2.3 per match). Korda won 80% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Shimabukuro won 74% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 64% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Korda	Shimabukuro
Won	2	8
Converted	2/5	8/23
% Converted	40%	35%
Conceded	12	4
Saved	10	3
% Saved	83%	75%
Times Broken	2	1

Korda broke his opponent twice with a 40% conversion rate. The American lost his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. Sho broke his opponents 8 times with a 35% conversion rate. Shimabukuro conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Korda
	R1 Giron	Total
Score	4-6 6-3 7-64
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	32	32
pts	104-101	104-101
Total points	205	205
Winners	48	48
%Winners	46%	46%
SERVE
Aces	8	8
Double Faults	2	2
1st in	60/108	60/108
% 1st in	56%	56%
1st pts	48/60	48/60
% 1st pts	80%	80%
2nd pts	23/48	23/48
% 2nd pts	48%	48%
Breaks
Won	2	2
Converted	2/5	2/5
Converted %	40%	40%
Conceded	12	12
Saved	10/12	10
Saved %	83%	83%
Times Broken	2	2

Shimabukuro
	Q1 Navone	Q3 Manuel	R1 Machac	Total
Score	6-2 6-3	6-4 6-3	6-3 7-64
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	17	19	22	58
pts	66-52	61-49	80-67	207-168
Total points	118	110	147	375
Winners	23	32	27	82
%Winners	35%	52%	34%	40%
SERVE
Aces	0	2	5	7
Double Faults	1	0	0	1
1st in	32/59	41/62	38/64	111/185
% 1st in	54%	66%	59%	60%
1st pts	23/32	32/41	27/38	82/111
% 1st pts	72%	78%	71%	74%
2nd pts	16/27	11/21	20/26	47/74
% 2nd pts	59%	52%	77%	64%
Breaks
Won	4	2	2	8
Converted	4/9	2/2	2/12	8/23
Converted %	44%	100%	17%	35%
Conceded	2	1	1	4
Saved	2/2	1/1	0/1	3
Saved %	100%	100%	0%	200%
Times Broken	0	0	1	1

Tennis Scores in Tokyo

• Aleksandar VukicVukic – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Holger RuneRune – Hamad MedjedovicMedjedovic (7-6⁷ 6-1) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-7⁶ 7-6⁴ 6-2) – See score progression
• Ethan QuinnQuinn – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Marcos GironGiron (4-6 6-3 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (4-6 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Ugo HumbertHumbert (7-6⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Luciano DarderiDarderi – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (7-6⁹ 6-3) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Gabriel DialloDiallo (4-6 6-3 7-6³) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Zizou BergsBergs – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (1-6 7-6² 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Tomas MachacMachac (6-3 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni – Tomas Machac/John PeersMachac/John Peers (6-3 6-7⁵ 10-8) – See score progression
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (2-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Marton FucsovicsFucsovics – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (3-6 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Hugo Nys/Edouard Roger-VasselinNys/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Robert Cash/James TracyCash/James Tracy (7-6⁷ 4-6 10-7) – See score progression
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Rohan Bopanna/Takeru YuzukiBopanna/Takeru Yuzuki – Casper Ruud/Jordan ThompsonRuud/Jordan Thompson (6-3 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aleksandar VukicVukic – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Casper RuudRuud – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (5-3) – H2H and prediction
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Zizou BergsBergs (0-0) – H2H and prediction