Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini will square off in the 2^nd round of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 9^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 6:30 pm on COLOSSEUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Casper Ruud who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Casper Ruud is the pick to win this match.
Casper Ruud -> 1.65
Matteo Berrettini -> 2.24

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Prediction and head to head Casper Ruud vs. Matteo Berrettini

This will be the 9^th time that Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini face off. The head to head is 5-3 for Ruud (see full H2H stats), but Berrettini has a winning record of 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Ruud won 7-5 2-0 ret. in the 3^rd round in Rome back in May 2025.

Highlights Casper Ruud vs Matteo Berrettini – Rome 12-May-2025

Casper Ruud

Ranked no. 12, the Norwegian reached the 2^nd round after defeating Shintaro Mochizuki 4-6 6-1 6-1.

In the 1^st round against Mochizuki, The Norwegian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-1 6-1). During the match, Ruud scored 84 points vs Mochizuki’s 58. Casper was extremely aggressive to blast 39 winners.

Regarding the service games, Ruud scored 10 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Casper Ruud lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Ruud put 76% of his first serves in, winning 81% (39/48) of the points behind his 1st serve and 27% (4/15) on the 2nd serve. The Norwegian broke Mochizuki 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).

Ruud has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 65% of his matches (422-223). 10-6 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Ruud has a composed 116-75 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Madrid where he defeated Jack Draper in the final 7-5 3-6 6-4.

Casper has an aggregate 31-12 win-loss record in 2025, 10-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Matteo Berrettini

Ranked no. 56, Matteo reached the 2^nd round after defeating Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 6-4 6-2.

In the 1^st round, Berrettini had a good straight sets win against Munar Clar (6-4 6-2). During the match Berrettini scored 67 points vs Munar Clar’s 53. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about serving, Berrettini made 9 aces and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Matteo Berrettini was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 79% (26/33) of his 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Berrettini broke Munar Clar 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

The Italian has an aggregate 14-12 win-loss record in 2025, 10-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Ruud	Berrettini
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	3	2
Tot Games	24	18
Pts	84-58	67-53
Total Points	142	120
Winners	39	26
%Winners	46%	39%

Both Ruud and Berrettini played 1 match. At the moment, Casper Ruud dropped 1 set while Matteo Berrettini hasn’t conceded a set so far. Ruud has played 1 set more than Berrettini (3 vs 2). Therefore, Ruud played 6 games more than Berrettini. Ruud scored 39 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo scored 26 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Ruud	Berrettini
Aces	10	9
Avg per match	10	9
1st in	48/63	33/57
%1st in	76%	58%
1st pts	39/48	26/33
%1st pts	81%	79%
2nd pts	4/15	14/24
%2nd pts	27%	58%

Ruud made 10 aces . Berrettini scored 9 aces . Ruud won 81% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 27% of the points. On the other side, Berrettini won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Ruud	Berrettini
Won	6	3
Converted	6/13	3/7
% Converted	46%	43%
Conceded	6	8
Saved	4	8
% Saved	67%	100%
Times Broken	2	0

The Norwegian broke his opponent 6 times with a 46% conversion rate. Casper conceded his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Berrettini broke his opponent 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. Berrettini was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 8 break points.

Ruud
	R1 Mochizuki	Total
Score	4-6 6-1 6-1
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	24	24
pts	84-58	84-58
Total points	142	142
Winners	39	39
%Winners	46%	46%
SERVE
Aces	10	10
Double Faults	2	2
1st in	48/63	48/63
% 1st in	76%	76%
1st pts	39/48	39/48
% 1st pts	81%	81%
2nd pts	4/15	4/15
% 2nd pts	27%	27%
Breaks
Won	6	6
Converted	6/13	6/13
Converted %	46%	46%
Conceded	6	6
Saved	4/6	4
Saved %	67%	67%
Times Broken	2	2

Berrettini
	R1 Munar Clar	Total
Score	6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	18	18
pts	67-53	67-53
Total points	120	120
Winners	26	26
%Winners	39%	39%
SERVE
Aces	9	9
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	33/57	33/57
% 1st in	58%	58%
1st pts	26/33	26/33
% 1st pts	79%	79%
2nd pts	14/24	14/24
% 2nd pts	58%	58%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/7	3/7
Converted %	43%	43%
Conceded	8	8
Saved	8/8	8
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

Tennis Scores in Tokyo

• Sebastian KordaKorda – Marcos GironGiron (4-6 6-3 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki (4-6 6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Ugo HumbertHumbert (7-6⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Luciano DarderiDarderi – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (7-6⁹ 6-3) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Gabriel DialloDiallo (4-6 6-3 7-6³) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Sebastian BaezBaez (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Zizou BergsBergs – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (1-6 7-6² 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Tomas MachacMachac (6-3 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Aleksandar VukicVukic – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Holger RuneRune – Hamad MedjedovicMedjedovic (7-6⁷ 6-1) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-7⁶ 7-6⁴ 6-2) – See score progression
• Ethan QuinnQuinn – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (2-6 6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Marton FucsovicsFucsovics – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (3-6 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Hugo Nys/Edouard Roger-VasselinNys/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Robert Cash/James TracyCash/James Tracy (7-6⁷ 4-6 10-7) – See score progression
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Rohan Bopanna/Takeru YuzukiBopanna/Takeru Yuzuki – Casper Ruud/Jordan ThompsonRuud/Jordan Thompson (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Maximo Gonzalez/Andres MolteniGonzalez/Andres Molteni – Tomas Machac/John PeersMachac/John Peers (6-3 6-7⁵ 10-8) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aleksandar VukicVukic – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Casper RuudRuud – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (5-3) – H2H and prediction
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Sebastian KordaKorda (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Marton FucsovicsFucsovics (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Zizou BergsBergs (0-0) – H2H and prediction