Vilius Gaubas and Daniel Merida Aguilar will fight against each other in the quarter of the Lisbon Challenger for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 2:30 pm on COURT LISBOA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Vilius Gaubas who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Vilius Gaubas is the pick to win this match.
Vilius Gaubas -> 1.69
Daniel Merida Aguilar -> 2.07

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Prediction and head to head Vilius Gaubas vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar

This will be the 5^th time that Vilius Gaubas and Daniel Merida Aguilar play each other. The head to head is 3-1 for Gaubas (see full H2H stats

), 3-1 on clay.

The last time that they played each other, Gaubas won 7-5 6-4 in the qualifications in the Rome Challenger back in 2024.

Vilius Gaubas

Ranked no. 165, the Lithuanian reached the quarter after defeating Carlos Taberner 6-1 6-4

and Frederico Ferreira Silva 7-5 7-6(5).

In the 2^nd round, Vilius had a good straight sets win against Ferreira Silva (7-5 7-6⁵). During the match, Gaubas scored 86 points vs Ferreira Silva’s 82. Gaubas was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about the service games, Gaubas recorded 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Vilius Gaubas lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Gaubas put 66% of his first serves in, winning 63% (36/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 60% (18/30) on the 2nd serve. The Lithuanian broke Ferreira Silva 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Gaubas hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points he played.

Gaubas has a solid win-loss record in the last 5 years having won 60% of his matches (161-108). 28-15 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Gaubas has a compiled140-80 win-loss record in the last 5 years on clay.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Menorca Challenger where he defeated Pol Martin Tiffon in the final 6-0 6-4.

Vilius has an aggregate 32-24 win-loss record in 2025, 28-15 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Lisbon Challenger

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Ranked no. 173, Daniel got to the quarter after beating Jerome Kym 6-2 4-6 6-4 and Tiago Pereira 6-2 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Merida had a good straight sets win against Pereira (6-2 6-3). During the match Merida scored 59 points vs Pereira’s 38. Merida was very aggressive to blast 22 winners.

About the serving games, Merida was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Daniel Merida Aguilar was quite effective on serve to win 79% (22/28) of his 1st serve and 56% (9/16) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Daniel broke Pereira 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Pozoblanco Challenger where he beat Fajing Sun in the final 6-3 6-4.

Merida has a composed 43-18 win-loss record in 2025, 31-12 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Lisbon Challenger

Daniel has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Gaubas	Merida
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	5
Tot Games	42	45
Pts	148-128	168-132
Total Points	276	300
Winners	68	62
%Winners	46%	37%

Both Gaubas and Merida played 2 matches. At the moment, Daniel Merida Aguilar surrendered 1 set while Vilius Gaubas hasn’t dropped a set so far. Gaubas has played 1 set(s) less than Merida (4 vs 5). Therefore, Gaubas played 3 games less than Merida. Vilius scored 68 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard struck 62 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Gaubas	Merida
Aces	3	3
Avg per match	1.5	1.5
1st in	102/147	85/122
%1st in	69%	70%
1st pts	68/102	62/85
%1st pts	67%	73%
2nd pts	27/45	19/37
%2nd pts	60%	51%

Gaubas struck 3 aces (1.5 per match). Merida scored 3 aces (1.5 per match). Gaubas won 67% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Merida won 73% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Gaubas	Merida
Won	6	11
Converted	6/12	11/25
% Converted	50%	44%
Conceded	13	5
Saved	11	0
% Saved	85%	0%
Times Broken	2	5

Vilius broke his opponents 6 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Lithuanian surrendered his serve twice and he saved 85% of the break points that he conceded. Merida broke his opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. Merida conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.

Gaubas
	R1 Taberner	R2 Ferreira Silva	Total
Score	6-1 6-4	7-5 7-65
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	17	25	42
pts	62-46	86-82	148-128
Total points	108	168	276
Winners	32	36	68
%Winners	52%	42%	46%
SERVE
Aces	1	2	3
Double Faults	1	4	5
1st in	45/60	57/87	102/147
% 1st in	75%	66%	69%
1st pts	32/45	36/57	68/102
% 1st pts	71%	63%	67%
2nd pts	9/15	18/30	27/45
% 2nd pts	60%	60%	60%
Breaks
Won	3	3	6
Converted	3/4	3/8	6/12
Converted %	75%	38%	50%
Conceded	7	6	13
Saved	7/7	4/6	11
Saved %	100%	67%	84%
Times Broken	0	2	2

Merida
	R1 Kym	R2 Pereira	Total
Score	6-2 4-6 6-4	6-2 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	5
Tot Games	28	17	45
pts	109-94	59-38	168-132
Total points	203	97	300
Winners	40	22	62
%Winners	37%	37%	37%
SERVE
Aces	3	0	3
Double Faults	1	1	2
1st in	57/78	28/44	85/122
% 1st in	73%	64%	70%
1st pts	40/57	22/28	62/85
% 1st pts	70%	79%	73%
2nd pts	10/21	9/16	19/37
% 2nd pts	48%	56%	51%
Breaks
Won	6	5	11
Converted	6/18	5/7	11/25
Converted %	33%	71%	44%
Conceded	4	1	5
Saved	0/4	0/1	0
Saved %	0%	0%	0%
Times Broken	4	1	5

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander RitschardRitschard – Stefano TravagliaTravaglia (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Pablo Llamas RuizLlamas Ruiz – (0-1) – H2H and prediction