Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez will square off in the 1st round of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 6:30 pm on COLOSSEUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.041
Sebastian Baez -> 10.75
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez
This will be the 3rd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez fight against each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Alcaraz won 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret. in the 1st round in at the U.S. Open back in 2022.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez – U.S. Open 30-August-2022
Carlos Alcaraz
62 - 7win/loss
1
1
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 71-9 | 28-4 | 22-1 | 10-3 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1he will start his run in Tokyo after he played his last match in the Laver Cup where he defeated 6-2 6-1 to Cerundolo in the round robin on the 21st of September.
Carlos has a compiled 62-7 win-loss record in 2025, 23-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he overcame Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret. and at the U.S. Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4.
Talking about his overall career, The Spaniard has an overall 349-83 record. He has a positive 120-29 record on hard.
Previously in Tokyo
The Spaniard has never competed in this tournament before.
Sebastian Baez
19 - 21win/loss
45
18
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-27 | 3-9 | 17-14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-28 | 5-9 | 26-11 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 41, Sebastian will start his run in Tokyo after he played his last match at the Us Open where he lost 6-3 7-5 6-4 to Lloyd in the 1st round on the 25th of August.
Baez has a composed 19-21 win-loss record in 2025, 2-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Rio de Janeiro where he defeated Alexandre Muller in the final 6-2 6-3.
In terms of his career, Sebastian has an overall 270-170 record. He has a negative 35-40 record on hard.
Tennis Scores in Tokyo
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Hugo Nys/Edouard Roger-VasselinNys/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Robert Cash/James TracyCash/James Tracy (7-67 4-6 10-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki (2-6 6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Damir DzumhurDzumhur – Aleksandar VukicVukic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marton FucsovicsFucsovics – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Marcos GironGiron – Sebastian KordaKorda (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jordan ThompsonThompson – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (2-4) – H2H and prediction
- Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Zizou BergsBergs – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas MachacMachac – Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Sebastian BaezBaez (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Gabriel DialloDiallo – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-2) – H2H and prediction