Lorenzo Musetti and Alejandro Tabilo will fight against each other in the final of the Chengdu Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 7:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lorenzo Musetti who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Lorenzo Musetti is the pick to win this match.
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.26
Alejandro Tabilo -> 3.85

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alejandro Tabilo

This will be the 2^nd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Alejandro Tabilo clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Musetti (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Musetti won 6-2 6-0 in the 1^st round in the Antalya Challenger back in 2021.

Lorenzo Musetti

Ranked no. 9, Lorenzo reached the final after defeating Dino Prizmic 7-5 3-6 6-2, Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-3 6-3 and Alexander Shevchenko 6-3 6-1.

In the semifinal, Musetti had a good straight sets win against Shevchenko (6-3 6-1). During the match, Musetti scored 60 points vs Shevchenko’s 35. Lorenzo was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Regarding the service games, Musetti blasted 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Lorenzo Musetti was very effective on serve to win 92% (24/26) of his 1st serve and 57% (8/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Musetti broke Shevchenko 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Musetti has lost 1 set in this competition to win 57% of the points he played.

Musetti has a winning record in the last 8 years having won 59% of his matches (253-174). 14-8 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Musetti has an overall64-54 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

Lorenzo’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Carlo.

Musetti has a composed 33-13 win-loss record in 2025, 14-8 on hard (See FULL STATS)

.

Previously in Chengdu

Alejandro Tabilo

Ranked no. 112, Tabilo reached the final after defeating Rigele Te 6-4 6-4, Lloyd Harris 7-6(4) 6-7(2) 7-6(2), Jordan Thompson 6-4 6-3, Luciano Darderi 6-4 6-3, Christopher O Connell 4-6 7-5 6-2 and Brandon Nakashima 6-4 7-6(0).

In the semifinal, Tabilo had a good straight sets win against Nakashima (6-4 7-6⁰). During the match Tabilo scored 68 points vs Nakashima’s 56. Tabilo was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Talking about serving, Tabilo struck 11 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Alejandro Tabilo was exceptionally effective on serve to win 85% (40/47) of his 1st serve and 67% (8/12) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Chilean broke Nakashima once after converting 33% of his break points (1/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alejandro started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

The Chilean’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Guangzhou Challenger.

Alejandro has an aggregate 20-17 win-loss record in 2025, 14-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Chengdu

The Chilean has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Musetti	Tabilo
Match played	3	6
Tot Set	7	14
Tot Games	63	150
Pts	210-157	478-416
Total Points	367	894
Winners	95	267
%Winners	45%	56%

Musetti played 3 matches while Tabilo competed in 6 matches. Tabilo started his run from the qualifications while Musetti had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 1 set, while Alejandro Tabilo dropped 2 sets. Musetti has played 7 set(s) less than Tabilo (7 vs 14). Therefore, Musetti played 87 games less than Tabilo. The Italian scored 95 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, The Chilean scored 267 winners (56%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Musetti	Tabilo
Aces	20	59
Avg per match	6.7	9.8
1st in	115/165	338/444
%1st in	70%	76%
1st pts	95/115	267/338
%1st pts	83%	79%
2nd pts	27/50	59/106
%2nd pts	54%	56%

Musetti blasted 20 aces (6.7 per match). Tabilo bagged 59 aces (9.8 per match). Musetti won 83% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Tabilo won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Musetti	Tabilo
Won	12	12
Converted	12/25	12/31
% Converted	48%	39%
Conceded	9	19
Saved	6	16
% Saved	67%	84%
Times Broken	3	3

Lorenzo broke his opponents 12 times with a 48% conversion rate. Musetti surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Alejandro broke his opponents 12 times with a 39% conversion rate. Tabilo conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 84% of the break points that he conceded.

Musetti
	R2 Prizmic	1/4 Basilashvili	1/2 Shevchenko	Total
Score	7-5 3-6 6-2	6-3 6-3	6-3 6-1
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	29	18	16	63
pts	89-73	61-49	60-35	210-157
Total points	162	110	95	367
Winners	44	27	24	95
%Winners	49%	44%	40%	45%
SERVE
Aces	10	7	3	20
Double Faults	1	2	1	4
1st in	54/72	35/53	26/40	115/165
% 1st in	75%	66%	65%	70%
1st pts	44/54	27/35	24/26	95/115
% 1st pts	81%	77%	92%	83%
2nd pts	10/18	9/18	8/14	27/50
% 2nd pts	56%	50%	57%	54%
Breaks
Won	4	4	4	12
Converted	4/8	4/9	4/8	12/25
Converted %	50%	44%	50%	48%
Conceded	5	4	0	9
Saved	3/5	3/4	0/0	6
Saved %	60%	75%	–	45%
Times Broken	2	1	0	3

Tabilo
	Q1 Te	Q3 Lloyd	R1 Thompson	R2 Darderi	1/4 O	1/2 Nakashima	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	7-64 6-72 7-62	6-4 6-3	6-4 6-3	4-6 7-5 6-2	6-4 7-60
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	3	2	14
Tot Games	20	39	19	19	30	23	150
pts	64-53	115-114	61-47	68-57	102-89	68-56	478-416
Total points	117	229	108	125	191	124	894
Winners	39	67	36	37	48	40	267
%Winners	61%	58%	59%	54%	47%	59%	56%
SERVE
Aces	8	13	5	12	10	11	59
Double Faults	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
1st in	45/54	83/107	43/58	49/69	71/97	47/59	338/444
% 1st in	83%	78%	74%	71%	73%	80%	76%
1st pts	39/45	67/83	36/43	37/49	48/71	40/47	267/338
% 1st pts	87%	81%	84%	76%	68%	85%	79%
2nd pts	3/9	15/24	7/15	11/20	15/26	8/12	59/106
% 2nd pts	33%	63%	47%	55%	58%	67%	56%
Breaks
Won	2	1	2	2	4	1	12
Converted	2/4	1/8	2/4	2/2	4/10	1/3	12/31
Converted %	50%	13%	50%	100%	40%	33%	39%
Conceded	5	1	2	4	7	0	19
Saved	5/5	0/1	2/2	4/4	5/7	0/0	16
Saved %	100%	0%	100%	100%	71%	–	124%
Times Broken	0	1	0	0	2	0	3

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (1-0) – H2H and prediction