Carlos Alcaraz begins his campaign at the Japan Open with a potentially tricky first-round match against Argentina’s Sebastián Báez. The head-to-head favors Alcaraz, who leads 2–0, but Báez’s aggressive baseline game and recent form could pose early problems. Alcaraz will need to find rhythm quickly to avoid an upset.
Possible second round: Tabilo or Bergs
In the second round, Alcaraz is projected to face either Alejandro Tabilo or Zizou Bergs. Tabilo, ranked 116, trails Bergs 0–2 in their head-to-head, suggesting Bergs may be the more likely opponent. Both players offer contrasting styles—Tabilo with finesse and Bergs with power—but neither has the consistency to match Alcaraz over three sets.
Quarterfinal threat: Frances Tiafoe
The most anticipated clash in Alcaraz’s half of the draw is a potential quarterfinal against Frances Tiafoe. Tiafoe has a slight edge in head-to-heads against Brandon Nakashima (2–1) and Jordan Thompson (1–0), making him the favorite to advance. A matchup between Alcaraz and Tiafoe would bea battle of athleticism and shot-making, with crowd-pleasing rallies almost guaranteed.
Alcaraz’s road to the title
If Alcaraz navigates past Báez, Bergs/Tabilo, and Tiafoe, he could face either Ruud or Fritz in the final—both players he’s familiar with and has beaten in high-stakes matches. The projected draw suggests a demanding but manageable path for the Spaniard, who will rely on his explosive forehand, court coverage, and mental toughness to go deep in Tokyo.
The Japan Open promises high-quality tennis, and with Alcaraz in the mix, fans can expect drama, intensity, and world-class performances from the very first round.
Carlos Alcaraz in 2025
Ranked no.1, Carlos played his last match on the 21st of September when he overcame world no.21 Francisco Cerundolo 6-2 6-1 in the round robin in the Laver Cup (draw).
Until now, during this year Alcaraz owns a compiled 62-7 win-loss record. The Spaniard conquered 7 titles in 2025 in Rotterdam, Monte-Carlo, Rome, French Open, London, Cincinnati and U.S. Open. The Spaniard was the finalist in Barcelona and Wimbledon.