Marton Fucsovics and Matteo Arnaldi will play each other in the qualifications of the Japan Open Tennis Championships for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 12:30 pm on KINOSHITA GROUP SHOW COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Marton Fucsovics who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Marton Fucsovics is the pick to win this match.
Marton Fucsovics -> 1.83
Matteo Arnaldi -> 1.89

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Marton Fucsovics vs. Matteo Arnaldi

This will be the 3^rd time that Marton Fucsovics and Matteo Arnaldi clash against each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Fucsovics and Arnaldi (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.

The last time that they played, Arnaldi won 6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(7) in the 1^st round in Brisbane back in 2024.

Highlights Matteo Arnaldi vs Marton Fucsovics – Brisbane 02-January-2024

Marton Fucsovics

Ranked no. 58, the Hungarian reached the qualifications after beating Filip Misolic 6-3 6-1.

In the qualifications, Fucsovics had a good straight sets win against Misolic (6-3 6-1). During the match, Fucsovics scored 54 points vs Misolic’s 31. Marton was very aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about the service games, Fucsovics recorded 2 aces and he was pretty consistent in conceding no double faults. Marton Fucsovics was exceptionally effective on serve to win 89% (25/28) of his 1st serve and 53% (8/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Fucsovics broke Misolic 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Fucsovics has positive match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of his matches (325-235). 16-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Fucsovics has a composed 117-86 match record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the year was conquering the title the Manama Challenger where he beat Andrea Vavassori in the final 6-3 6-7(3) 6-4 and in Salem where he beat Botic Van De Zandschulp in the final 6-3 7-6(3).

Fucsovics has a compiled 38-19 win-loss record in 2025, 16-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Fucsovics has never competed in this tournament before.

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 73, Arnaldi reached the qualifications after beating Luca Nardi 6-0 6-7(4) 6-3.

In the qualifications, Arnaldi defeated Nardi (6-0 6-7⁴ 6-3). During the match Arnaldi scored 106 points vs Nardi’s 83. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Talking about serving, Arnaldi blasted 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Matteo Arnaldi lost the serve 3 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Arnaldi put 63% of his first serves in, winning 67% (38/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 59% (20/34) on the 2nd serve. Matteo broke Nardi 8 times after converting 57% of his break points (8/14).

Matteo’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Delray Beach.

Matteo has a compiled 19-21 win-loss record in 2025, 10-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Tokyo

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Fucsovics	Arnaldi
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	3
Tot Games	16	28
Pts	54-31	106-83
Total Points	85	189
Winners	25	38
%Winners	46%	36%

Both Fucsovics and Arnaldi played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Matteo Arnaldi lost 1 set while Marton Fucsovics hasn’t lost a set so far. Fucsovics has played 1 set(s) less than Arnaldi (2 vs 3). Therefore, Fucsovics played 12 games less than Arnaldi. The Hungarian scored 25 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Arnaldi made 38 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Fucsovics	Arnaldi
Aces	2	5
Avg per match	2	5
1st in	28/43	57/91
%1st in	65%	63%
1st pts	25/28	38/57
%1st pts	89%	67%
2nd pts	8/15	20/34
%2nd pts	53%	59%

Fucsovics managed to score 2 aces . Arnaldi made 5 aces . Fucsovics won 89% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 67% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Fucsovics	Arnaldi
Won	4	8
Converted	4/6	8/14
% Converted	67%	57%
Conceded	1	9
Saved	1	6
% Saved	100%	67%
Times Broken	0	3

Fucsovics broke his opponent 4 times with a 67% conversion rate. Marton pretty effective on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 1 break points. Matteo broke his opponent 8 times with a 57% conversion rate. Matteo conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Fucsovics
	Q1 Misolic	Total
Score	6-3 6-1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	16	16
pts	54-31	54-31
Total points	85	85
Winners	25	25
%Winners	46%	46%
SERVE
Aces	2	2
Double Faults	0	0
1st in	28/43	28/43
% 1st in	65%	65%
1st pts	25/28	25/28
% 1st pts	89%	89%
2nd pts	8/15	8/15
% 2nd pts	53%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/6	4/6
Converted %	67%	67%
Conceded	1	1
Saved	1/1	1
Saved %	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0

Arnaldi
	Q1 Nardi	Total
Score	6-0 6-74 6-3
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	28	28
pts	106-83	106-83
Total points	189	189
Winners	38	38
%Winners	36%	36%
SERVE
Aces	5	5
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	57/91	57/91
% 1st in	63%	63%
1st pts	38/57	38/57
% 1st pts	67%	67%
2nd pts	20/34	20/34
% 2nd pts	59%	59%
Breaks
Won	8	8
Converted	8/14	8/14
Converted %	57%	57%
Conceded	9	9
Saved	6/9	6
Saved %	67%	67%
Times Broken	3	3

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Marton FucsovicsFucsovics – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – Sebastian KordaKorda (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Jordan ThompsonThompson – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Aleksandar VukicVukic – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Nuno BorgesBorges (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Casper RuudRuud – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Zizou BergsBergs – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo – Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia – Sebastian BaezBaez (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-2) – H2H and prediction