Brandon Nakashima and Alejandro Tabilo will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Chengdu Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 5:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Brandon Nakashima who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Brandon Nakashima is the pick to win this match.
Brandon Nakashima -> 1.56
Alejandro Tabilo -> 2.43

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Prediction and head to head Brandon Nakashima vs. Alejandro Tabilo

This will be the 3^rd time that Brandon Nakashima and Alejandro Tabilo play each other. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Nakashima won 7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(3) in the Rubber 2 in Davis Cup, Group C, Zhuhai back in 2024.

Brandon Nakashima

Ranked no. 33, the American reached the semifinal after beating Juncheng Shang 7-5 6-3 and Marcos Giron 6-3 2-6 7-6(3).

In the quarter, Nakashima defeated Giron (6-3 2-6 7-6³).During the match, Nakashima scored less points (2) than Giron. In fact, the world no. 33 won 88 points vs Giron’s. That means that Nakashima was more focused during the important points. Nakashima was extremely aggressive to blast 56 winners.

Regarding the service games, Nakashima made 13 aces and he was quite consistent in conceding no double faults. Brandon Nakashima lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Nakashima put 81% of his first serves in, winning 74% (56/76) of the points behind his 1st serve and 28% (5/18) on the 2nd serve. Nakashima broke Giron twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Nakashima has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 51% of the points he played.

Nakashima has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (255-163). 17-11 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Nakashima has a composed 125-80 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

The American’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Acapulco and Houston.

Brandon has a composed 29-23 win-loss record in 2025, 17-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Chengdu

Alejandro Tabilo

Ranked no. 112, the Chilean reached the semifinal after defeating Rigele Te 6-4 6-4, Lloyd Harris 7-6(4) 6-7(2) 7-6(2), Jordan Thompson 6-4 6-3, Luciano Darderi 6-4 6-3 and Christopher O Connell 4-6 7-5 6-2.

In the quarter against O Connell, Alejandro recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-5 6-2). During the match Tabilo scored 102 points vs O Connell’s 89. Alejandro was exceptionally aggressive to blast 48 winners.

Talking about serving, Tabilo blasted 10 aces and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Alejandro Tabilo lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Tabilo put 73% of his first serves in, winning 68% (48/71) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (15/26) on the 2nd serve. Alejandro broke O Connell 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Chilean started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Tabilo’s best result of the season was getting to the final in the Guangzhou Challenger.

The Chilean has a compiled 19-17 win-loss record in 2025, 13-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Nakashima	Tabilo
Match played	2	5
Tot Set	5	12
Tot Games	51	127
Pts	163-154	410-360
Total Points	317	770
Winners	97	227
%Winners	60%	55%

Nakashima played 2 matches while Tabilo competed in 5 matches. Tabilo started his run from the qualifications while Nakashima had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Brandon Nakashima surrendered 1 set, while Alejandro Tabilo surrendered 2 sets. Nakashima has played 7 set(s) less than Tabilo (5 vs 12). Therefore, Nakashima played 76 games less than Tabilo. The American scored 97 winners (60% of the total points). On the other side, The Chilean bagged 227 winners (55%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Nakashima	Tabilo
Aces	26	48
Avg per match	13	9.6
1st in	132/166	291/385
%1st in	80%	76%
1st pts	97/132	227/291
%1st pts	73%	78%
2nd pts	13/34	51/94
%2nd pts	38%	54%

Nakashima bagged 26 aces (13 per match). Tabilo made 48 aces (9.6 per match). Nakashima won 73% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 38% of the points. On the other side, Tabilo won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Nakashima	Tabilo
Won	5	11
Converted	5/12	11/28
% Converted	42%	39%
Conceded	12	19
Saved	8	16
% Saved	67%	84%
Times Broken	4	3

Nakashima broke his opponents 5 times with a 42% conversion rate. Nakashima surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The Chilean broke his opponents 11 times with a 39% conversion rate. Alejandro conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 84% of the break points that he conceded.

Nakashima
	R2 Shang	1/4 Giron	Total
Score	7-5 6-3	6-3 2-6 7-63
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	21	30	51
pts	75-64	88-90	163-154
Total points	139	178	317
Winners	41	56	97
%Winners	55%	64%	60%
SERVE
Aces	13	13	26
Double Faults	0	0	0
1st in	56/72	76/94	132/166
% 1st in	78%	81%	80%
1st pts	41/56	56/76	97/132
% 1st pts	73%	74%	73%
2nd pts	8/16	5/18	13/34
% 2nd pts	50%	28%	38%
Breaks
Won	3	2	5
Converted	3/9	2/3	5/12
Converted %	33%	67%	42%
Conceded	7	5	12
Saved	6/7	2/5	8
Saved %	86%	40%	63%
Times Broken	1	3	4

Tabilo
	Q1 Te	Q3 Lloyd	R1 Thompson	R2 Darderi	1/4 O	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	7-64 6-72 7-62	6-4 6-3	6-4 6-3	4-6 7-5 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	3	12
Tot Games	20	39	19	19	30	127
pts	64-53	115-114	61-47	68-57	102-89	410-360
Total points	117	229	108	125	191	770
Winners	39	67	36	37	48	227
%Winners	61%	58%	59%	54%	47%	55%
SERVE
Aces	8	13	5	12	10	48
Double Faults	0	0	1	1	0	2
1st in	45/54	83/107	43/58	49/69	71/97	291/385
% 1st in	83%	78%	74%	71%	73%	76%
1st pts	39/45	67/83	36/43	37/49	48/71	227/291
% 1st pts	87%	81%	84%	76%	68%	78%
2nd pts	3/9	15/24	7/15	11/20	15/26	51/94
% 2nd pts	33%	63%	47%	55%	58%	54%
Breaks
Won	2	1	2	2	4	11
Converted	2/4	1/8	2/4	2/2	4/10	11/28
Converted %	50%	13%	50%	100%	40%	39%
Conceded	5	1	2	4	7	19
Saved	5/5	0/1	2/2	4/4	5/7	16
Saved %	100%	0%	100%	100%	71%	186%
Times Broken	0	1	0	0	2	3

Tennis Scores in Chengdu

• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 2-6 7-6³) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (4-6 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Constantin Frantzen/Robin HaaseFrantzen/Robin Haase – Nathaniel Lammons/Jean-Julien RojerLammons/Jean-Julien Rojer (7-6¹² 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Diego Hidalgo/Patrik TrhacHidalgo/Patrik Trhac – Jie Cui/Rigele TeCui/Rigele Te (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Marcos GironGiron (6-3 2-6 7-6(3)) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Christopher O’ConnellO’Connell (4-6 7-5 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Taro DanielDaniel – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (1-1) – H2H and prediction