Alex Barrena and Mariano Kestelboim will fight against each other in the quarter of the Villa Maria Challenger for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 1:30 pm on CANCHA CENTRAL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Barrena who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex Barrena is the pick to win this match.
Alex Barrena -> 1.44
Mariano Kestelboim -> 2.625

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Prediction and head to head Alex Barrena vs. Mariano Kestelboim

This will be the 6^th time that Alex Barrena and Mariano Kestelboim square off. The head to head is 3-2 for Barrena (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on clay.

The last time that they played each other, Barrena won 6-0 6-2 in the quarter in the San Miguel de Tucuman Challenger back in April 2025.

Alex Barrena

Ranked no. 224 (career-high), Barrena got to the quarter after beating Gonzalo Villanueva 7-6(4) 6-1 and Juan Manuel La Serna 6-4 7-6(5).

In the 2^nd round, Alex had a good straight sets win against Manuel La Serna (6-4 7-6⁵).During the match, Barrena scored less points (1) than Manuel La Serna. In fact, the world no. 224 won 77 points vs Manuel La Serna’s. That means that Barrena was more focused during the important points. Barrena was exceptionally aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Regarding the service games, Barrena was unable to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and he committed only 4 double faults. Alex Barrena lost the serve twice and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Barrena put 60% of his first serves in, winning 66% (35/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (17/36) on the 2nd serve. Barrena broke Manuel La Serna 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alex hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 53% of the points he played.

Barrena has a winning record in the last 7 years having won 57% of his matches (160-120). 36-18 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Barrena has an aggregate157-111 match record in the last 7 years on clay.

His best result of the season was winning the title the San Miguel de Tucuman Challenger where he overcame Santiago Rodriguez Taverna in the final 7-5 6-2 and the Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger where he beat Franco Roncadelli in the final 5-7 7-5 6-3.

Alex has an overall 36-19 win-loss record in 2025, 36-18 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Villa Maria Challenger

Mariano Kestelboim

Ranked no. 436, Mariano reached the quarter after beating Facundo Juarez 6-4 6-3 and Lautaro Midon 2-6 6-3 6-3.

In the 2^nd round against Midon, Mariano recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 6-3).During the match Kestelboim scored less points (1) than Midon. In fact, the world no. 224 won 84 points vs Midon’s. That means that Kestelboim was more focused during the important points. The Argentine was pretty aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about serving, Kestelboim struck 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Mariano Kestelboim lost the serve 4 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Kestelboim put 69% of his first serves in, winning 57% (33/58) of the points behind his 1st serve and 54% (14/26) on the 2nd serve. Mariano broke Midon 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Mariano has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

The Argentine’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in M25 Punta del Este and M25 Lujan.

Mariano has an aggregate 30-19 win-loss record in 2025, 30-18 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Villa Maria Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Barrena	Kestelboim
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	5
Tot Games	43	45
Pts	143-125	154-138
Total Points	268	292
Winners	53	70
%Winners	37%	45%

Both Barrena and Kestelboim played 2 matches. At the moment, Mariano Kestelboim dropped 1 set while Alex Barrena hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Barrena has played 1 set(s) less than Kestelboim (4 vs 5). Therefore, Barrena played 2 games less than Kestelboim. Barrena scored 53 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Kestelboim blasted 70 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Barrena	Kestelboim
Aces	5	2
Avg per match	2.5	1
1st in	82/145	112/156
%1st in	57%	72%
1st pts	53/82	70/112
%1st pts	65%	63%
2nd pts	35/63	22/44
%2nd pts	56%	50%

Barrena managed to score 5 aces (2.5 per match). Kestelboim fired 2 aces (1 per match). Barrena won 65% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Kestelboim won 63% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Barrena	Kestelboim
Won	8	9
Converted	8/14	9/14
% Converted	57%	64%
Conceded	17	15
Saved	12	9
% Saved	71%	60%
Times Broken	5	6

Alex broke his opponents 8 times with a 57% conversion rate. Barrena dropped his serve 5 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded. Kestelboim broke his opponents 9 times with a 64% conversion rate. Mariano conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.

Barrena
	R1 Villanueva	R2 Manuel La Serna	Total
Score	7-64 6-1	6-4 7-65
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	20	23	43
pts	66-47	77-78	143-125
Total points	113	155	268
Winners	18	35	53
%Winners	27%	45%	37%
SERVE
Aces	5	0	5
Double Faults	0	4	4
1st in	29/56	53/89	82/145
% 1st in	52%	60%	57%
1st pts	18/29	35/53	53/82
% 1st pts	62%	66%	65%
2nd pts	18/27	17/36	35/63
% 2nd pts	67%	47%	56%
Breaks
Won	5	3	8
Converted	5/8	3/6	8/14
Converted %	63%	50%	57%
Conceded	4	13	17
Saved	1/4	11/13	12
Saved %	25%	85%	55%
Times Broken	3	2	5

Kestelboim
	R1 Juarez	R2 Midon	Total
Score	6-4 6-3	2-6 6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	19	26	45
pts	70-53	84-85	154-138
Total points	123	169	292
Winners	37	33	70
%Winners	53%	39%	45%
SERVE
Aces	0	2	2
Double Faults	2	3	5
1st in	54/72	58/84	112/156
% 1st in	75%	69%	72%
1st pts	37/54	33/58	70/112
% 1st pts	69%	57%	63%
2nd pts	8/18	14/26	22/44
% 2nd pts	44%	54%	50%
Breaks
Won	4	5	9
Converted	4/6	5/8	9/14
Converted %	67%	63%	64%
Conceded	9	6	15
Saved	7/9	2/6	9
Saved %	78%	33%	56%
Times Broken	2	4	6

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