Michael Geerts and Luca Potenza will clash against each other in the qualifications of the St. Tropez Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 10:30 am on COURT CMA CGM. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Michael Geerts who should win in 3 sets.
Michael Geerts -> 1.49
Luca Potenza -> 2.48
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Prediction and head to head Michael Geerts vs. Luca Potenza
This will be the 3rd time that Michael Geerts and Luca Potenza square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Geerts (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Geerts won 2-6 7-6(5) 6-2 in the 2nd round in the Abidjan 1 Challenger back in April 2025.
Michael Geerts
30 - 28win/loss
367
212
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36-34 | 22-15 | 10-14 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 50-37 | 18-11 | 10-12 | 17-13 | 0-1 | 5-0 |
| 2023 | 32-39 | 13-10 | 13-19 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 2022 | 42-37 | 5-8 | 24-14 | 11-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| 2021 | 35-28 | 13-7 | 14-14 | 8-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 324, Geerts reached the qualifications after beating Mikail Alimli 6-0 7-5.
In the qualifications, Michael had a good straight sets win against Alimli (6-0 7-5). During the match, Geerts scored 62 points vs Alimli’s 40. The Belgian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 17 winners.
Talking about the service games, Geerts made 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Michael Geerts lost the serve once and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Geerts put 49% of his first serves in, winning 68% (17/25) of the points behind his 1st serve and 73% (19/26) on the 2nd serve. Geerts was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Alimli 5 times.
Geerts has positive record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (313-247). 17-10 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Geerts has a compiled 124-80 match record in the last years on hard.
The Belgian’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in M25 Loule and the Abidjan 2 Challenger.
Michael has a composed 30-28 win-loss record in 2025, 17-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the St. Tropez Challenger
Michael has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Potenza
50 - 25win/loss
362
357
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58-31 | 53-25 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 26-17 | 14-7 | 12-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 20-28 | 6-9 | 13-18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 26-26 | 10-9 | 13-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-25 | 27-13 | 6-7 | 6-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 422 (career-high), Potenza got to the qualifications after defeating Vadym Ursu 6-4 7-6(7).
In the qualifications, Potenza had a good straight sets win against Ursu (6-4 7-67). During the match Potenza scored 92 points vs Ursu’s 83. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.
About the serving games, Potenza bagged 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Luca Potenza lost the serve twice and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Potenza put 74% of his first serves in, winning 68% (42/62) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (12/22) on the 2nd serve. Potenza broke Ursu 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).
Luca’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in M15 Monastir.
Luca has a compiled 50-25 win-loss record in 2025, 47-21 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Geerts | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 23 |
| Pts | 62-40 | 92-83 |
| Total Points | 102 | 175 |
| Winners | 17 | 42 |
| %Winners | 27% | 46% |
Both Geerts and Potenza played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Geerts and Potenza have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Geerts played 5 games less than Potenza. The Belgian scored 17 winners (27% of the total points). On the other side, Luca struck 42 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Geerts | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 2 |
| 1st in | 25/51 | 62/84 |
| %1st in | 49% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 17/25 | 42/62 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 19/26 | 12/22 |
| %2nd pts | 73% | 55% |
Geerts struck 5 aces . Potenza scored 2 aces . Geerts won 68% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 73% of the points. On the other side, Potenza won 68% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Geerts | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 3 |
| Converted | 5/5 | 3/9 |
| % Converted | 100% | 33% |
| Conceded | 6 | 8 |
| Saved | 5 | 6 |
| % Saved | 83% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 |
The Belgian broke his opponent 5 times with a 100% conversion rate. The Belgian surrendered his serve once and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. Potenza broke his opponent 3 times with a 33% conversion rate. Luca conceded his serve twice and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Geerts | |||
| Q1 Alimli | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 62-40 | 62-40 | |
| Total points | 102 | 102 | |
| Winners | 17 | 17 | |
| %Winners | 27% | 27% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 25/51 | 25/51 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 49% | |
| 1st pts | 17/25 | 17/25 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/26 | 19/26 | |
| % 2nd pts | 73% | 73% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 5/5 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 83% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Potenza | |||
| Q1 Ursu | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-67 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 23 | |
| pts | 92-83 | 92-83 | |
| Total points | 175 | 175 | |
| Winners | 42 | 42 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 62/84 | 62/84 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 42/62 | 42/62 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/22 | 12/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 3/9 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
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