Hugo Gaston and Stan Wawrinka will clash against each other in the final of the Rennes Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:00 pm on LE LIBERTE. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Hugo Gaston who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Hugo Gaston is the pick to win this match.
Hugo Gaston -> 1.86
Stan Wawrinka -> 1.86

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Prediction and head to head Hugo Gaston vs. Stan Wawrinka

This will be the 2^nd time that Hugo Gaston and Stan Wawrinka fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Gaston (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on indoor hard courts.

The last time that they squared off, Gaston won 2-6 6-3 6-3 4-6 6-0 in the 3^rd round in at the French Open back in 2020.

Highlights Hugo Gaston vs Stan Wawrinka – French Open 02-October-2020

Hugo Gaston

Ranked no. 128, the French player reached the final after defeating Christoph Negritu 6-2 7-5, Enzo Couacaud 6-3 1-0 ret., Eliakim Coulibaly 7-5 6-2 and Clement Chidekh 6-3 2-6 6-2.

In the semifinal, The French player defeated Chidekh (6-3 2-6 6-2). During the match, Gaston scored 91 points vs Chidekh’s 84. Gaston was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Regarding the service games, Gaston scored 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Hugo Gaston lost the serve 4 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Gaston put 61% of his first serves in, winning 57% (28/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (19/31) on the 2nd serve. Gaston broke Chidekh 5 times after converting 29% of his break points (5/17).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Gaston has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Gaston has winning record in the last 10 years having won 55% of his matches (260-210). 4-0 on indoor hard courts in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Gaston has an overall 67-56 win-loss record in the last years on indoor hard courts.

Gaston’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in the Rennes Challenger.

Gaston has a compiled 19-27 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Rennes Challenger

Stan Wawrinka

Ranked no. 149, the Swiss reached the final after beating Kenny de Schepper 6-4 6-4, Dan Added 6-3 6-4, Michael Geerts 7-6(2) 7-5 and Patrick Zahraj 7-6(3) 6-2.

In the semifinal, Stan had a good straight sets win against Zahraj (7-6³

6-2). During the match Wawrinka scored 74 points vs Zahraj’s 56. Stan was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about serving, Wawrinka struck 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Stan Wawrinka was very effective on serve to win 88% (29/33) of his 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Wawrinka broke Zahraj 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Wawrinka hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

Wawrinka’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in the Aix En Provence Challenger.

Stan has an aggregate 19-18 win-loss record in 2025, 4-3 on indoor hard courts (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Gaston	Wawrinka
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	8
Tot Games	75	85
Pts	275-209	283-224
Total Points	484	507
Winners	91	119
%Winners	33%	42%

Both Gaston and Wawrinka played 4 matches. At the moment, Hugo Gaston dropped 1 set while Stan Wawrinka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Gaston has played 2 sets more than Wawrinka (10 vs 8). However, it’s interesting to notice that Gaston played 10 games less than Wawrinka. Gaston scored 91 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, The Swiss scored 119 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Gaston	Wawrinka
Aces	18	26
Avg per match	4.5	6.5
1st in	124/212	136/243
%1st in	58%	56%
1st pts	91/124	119/136
%1st pts	73%	88%
2nd pts	58/88	66/107
%2nd pts	66%	62%

Gaston recorded 18 aces (4.5 per match). Wawrinka fired 26 aces (6.5 per match). Gaston won 73% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Wawrinka won 88% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Gaston	Wawrinka
Won	15	8
Converted	15/36	8/23
% Converted	42%	35%
Conceded	17	5
Saved	11	4
% Saved	65%	80%
Times Broken	6	1

Gaston broke his opponents 15 times with a 42% conversion rate. The French player dropped his serve 6 times and he saved 65% of the break points that he conceded. The Swiss broke his opponents 8 times with a 35% conversion rate. The Swiss conceded his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.

Gaston
	R1 Negritu	R2 Couacaud	1/4 Coulibaly	1/2 Chidekh	Total
Score	6-2 7-5	6-3 1-0 ret.	7-5 6-2	6-3 2-6 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	20	10	20	25	75
pts	77-52	36-23	71-50	91-84	275-209
Total points	129	59	121	175	484
Winners	24	18	21	28	91
%Winners	31%	50%	30%	31%	33%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	3	7	18
Double Faults	0	3	0	1	4
1st in	27/50	20/29	28/53	49/80	124/212
% 1st in	54%	69%	53%	61%	58%
1st pts	24/27	18/20	21/28	28/49	91/124
% 1st pts	89%	90%	75%	57%	73%
2nd pts	17/23	5/9	17/25	19/31	58/88
% 2nd pts	74%	56%	68%	61%	66%
Breaks
Won	3	2	5	5	15
Converted	3/9	2/3	5/7	5/17	15/36
Converted %	33%	67%	71%	29%	42%
Conceded	2	0	3	12	17
Saved	2/2	0/0	1/3	8/12	11
Saved %	100%	–	33%	67%	50%
Times Broken	0	0	2	4	6

Wawrinka
	R1 de Schepper	R2 Added	1/4 Geerts	1/2 Zahraj	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	6-3 6-4	7-62 7-5	7-63 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	20	19	25	21	85
pts	68-51	61-43	80-74	74-56	283-224
Total points	119	104	154	130	507
Winners	27	24	39	29	119
%Winners	40%	39%	49%	39%	42%
SERVE
Aces	3	10	6	7	26
Double Faults	4	0	1	1	6
1st in	31/55	28/54	44/77	33/57	136/243
% 1st in	56%	52%	57%	58%	56%
1st pts	27/31	24/28	39/44	29/33	119/136
% 1st pts	87%	86%	89%	88%	88%
2nd pts	16/24	19/26	17/33	14/24	66/107
% 2nd pts	67%	73%	52%	58%	62%
Breaks
Won	2	2	1	3	8
Converted	2/7	2/2	1/4	3/10	8/23
Converted %	29%	100%	25%	30%	35%
Conceded	1	1	0	3	5
Saved	1/1	1/1	0/0	2/3	4
Saved %	100%	100%	–	67%	67%
Times Broken	0	0	0	1	1

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Hugo GastonGaston – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (1-0) – H2H and prediction