Marat Sharipov and Luca Castelnuovo will fight against each other in the 2nd round of the Guangzhou Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 11:00 am on COURT 5. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Marat Sharipov who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Marat Sharipov is the pick to win this match.
Marat Sharipov -> 1.43
Luca Castelnuovo -> 2.66

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Prediction and head to head Marat Sharipov vs. Luca Castelnuovo

There is no head to head record between Marat Sharipov and Luca Castelnuovo since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Marat Sharipov

Marat Sharipov

39 - 20win/loss

Hard
19-8
I Hard
6-3
Clay
14-9
Rank
276
High
243
LWLWWLWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 48-26 24-11 14-9 10-6 0-0 0-0
2024 46-17 16-7 27-7 3-3 0-0 0-0
2023 65-18 43-4 22-14 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 21-19 8-6 7-10 6-3 0-0 0-0
2021 8-17 2-5 3-7 3-5 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 265, Marat got to the 2nd round after defeating Taro Daniel 7-6(5) 1-6 6-4.

In the 1st round, Marat defeated Daniel (7-65 1-6 6-4).During the match, Sharipov scored less points (5) than Daniel. In fact, the world no. 265 won 90 points vs Daniel’s. That means that Sharipov was more focused during the important points. The Russian was pretty aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sharipov made 14 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Marat Sharipov was exceptionally effective on serve to win 82% (41/50) of his 1st serve and 51% (21/41) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Marat broke Daniel once after converting 25% of his break points (1/4).

Sharipov has a solid record in the last 6 years having won 67% of his matches (181-91). 19-8 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Sharipov has an aggregate88-30 win-loss record in the last 6 years on hard.

The Russian’s best result of the season was reaching the final in M25 Uriage.

Marat has a composed 39-20 win-loss record in 2025, 19-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Guangzhou Challenger

Marat has never competed in this tournament before.

Guangzhou Challenger
Sharipov's Record

Luca Castelnuovo

Luca Castelnuovo

34 - 18win/loss

Hard
23-14
I Hard
8-2
Clay
3-2
Rank
410
High
400
LLWLWWLWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 43-23 32-18 3-2 8-3 0-0 0-0
2024 25-21 25-20 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-0
2023 36-23 22-15 4-3 8-4 0-0 2-1
2022 9-16 8-7 0-2 0-3 1-2 0-2
2021 21-30 9-10 11-18 0-1 1-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 501, the Swiss got to the 2nd round after defeating Yuichiro Inui 6-1 4-6 6-1, Ye Cong Mo 4-6 6-3 7-6(4) and Omar Jasika 7-6(2) 7-6(4).

In the 1st round, The Swiss had a good straight sets win against Jasika (7-62 7-64). During the match Castelnuovo scored 104 points vs Jasika’s 96. Castelnuovo was quite aggressive to blast 46 winners.

Talking about serving, Castelnuovo managed to score 10 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Luca Castelnuovo lost the serve 3 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Castelnuovo put 63% of his first serves in, winning 73% (46/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (14/37) on the 2nd serve. Luca broke Jasika 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).

The Swiss’s best result of the year was reaching the final in M15 Kayseri,M25 Luzhou and M15 Maanshan.

Luca has a compiled 34-18 win-loss record in 2025, 23-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Guangzhou Challenger
Castelnuovo's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament

M.Sharipov (RUS)
L.Castelnuovo
2h:12
2h:12
Time on court​
!
6h:15
6h:15
!
2h:12
2h:12
Last match​
!
2h:18
2h:18
1
1
Match played
!
3
3
30
30
Games Played​
82
82
3
3
Set played​​
8
8
90
90
Total points​
292
292
90
90
Avg point​
97.3
97.3
41
41
Winners
131
131
41
41
Avg Winners​
43.7
43.7
46%
46%
Ratio winners
45%
45%
-- Serve --
14
14
Aces
51
51
!
14
14
Avg Aces
!
17
17
5
5
Double Faults
15
15
5
5
Avg Double Faults
5
5
41/50
41/50
1st won total​
131/168
131/168
!
82%
82%
1st won %
!
78%
78%
21/41
21/41
2nd won total​
41/103
41/103
51%
51%
2nd won %
40%
40%
-- Break Points --
1/4
1/4
BP won
12/30
12/30
1/4
1/4
Avg BP won
4/10
4/10
!
25%
25%
Won
40%
40%
6
6
Conceded
25
25
6
6
Avg Conceded
8.3
8.3
2
2
Broken
8
8
2
2
Avg Broken
2.7
2.7
4
4
Saved
17
17
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sharipov Castelnuovo
Match played 1 3
Tot Set 3 8
Tot Games 30 82
Pts 90-95 292-263
Total Points 185 555
Winners 41 131
%Winners 46% 45%

Sharipov played 1 match while Castelnuovo competed in 3 matches. Castelnuovo started his run from the qualifications while Sharipov had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Marat Sharipov dropped 1 set, while Luca Castelnuovo dropped 2 sets. Sharipov has played 5 set(s) less than Castelnuovo (3 vs 8). Therefore, Sharipov played 52 games less than Castelnuovo. Marat scored 41 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, Castelnuovo struck 131 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sharipov Castelnuovo
Aces 14 51
Avg per match 14 17
1st in 50/91 168/271
%1st in 55% 62%
1st pts 41/50 131/168
%1st pts 82% 78%
2nd pts 21/41 41/103
%2nd pts 51% 40%

Sharipov struck 14 aces . Castelnuovo bagged 51 aces (17 per match). Sharipov won 82% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Castelnuovo won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 40% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sharipov Castelnuovo
Won 1 12
Converted 1/4 12/30
% Converted 25% 40%
Conceded 6 25
Saved 4 17
% Saved 67% 68%
Times Broken 2 8

Marat broke his opponent once with a 25% conversion rate. Sharipov conceded his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Luca broke his opponents 12 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Swiss conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.

Sharipov
R1
Daniel		 Total
Score 7-65 1-6 6-4
Tot Set 3 3
Tot Games 30 30
pts 90-95 90-95
Total points 185 185
Winners 41 41
%Winners 46% 46%
SERVE
Aces 14 14
Double Faults 5 5
1st in 50/91 50/91
% 1st in 55% 55%
1st pts 41/50 41/50
% 1st pts 82% 82%
2nd pts 21/41 21/41
% 2nd pts 51% 51%
Breaks
Won 1 1
Converted 1/4 1/4
Converted % 25% 25%
Conceded 6 6
Saved 4/6 4
Saved % 67% 67%
Times Broken 2 2
Castelnuovo
Q1
Inui		 Q3
Cong		 R1
Jasika		 Total
Score 6-1 4-6 6-1 4-6 6-3 7-64 7-62 7-64
Tot Set 3 3 2 8
Tot Games 24 32 26 82
pts 90-70 98-97 104-96 292-263
Total points 160 195 200 555
Winners 34 51 46 131
%Winners 38% 52% 44% 45%
SERVE
Aces 11 30 10 51
Double Faults 6 6 3 15
1st in 41/75 64/96 63/100 168/271
% 1st in 55% 67% 63% 62%
1st pts 34/41 51/64 46/63 131/168
% 1st pts 83% 80% 73% 78%
2nd pts 14/34 13/32 14/37 41/103
% 2nd pts 41% 41% 38% 40%
Breaks
Won 6 3 3 12
Converted 6/13 3/8 3/9 12/30
Converted % 46% 38% 33% 40%
Conceded 10 3 12 25
Saved 8/10 0/3 9/12 17
Saved % 80% 0% 75% 155%
Times Broken 2 3 3 8

Tennis Scores in Guangzhou Challenger

  • Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo – Petr Bar BiryukovBar Biryukov (6-1 2-1 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

Sharipov (RUS)
More Stats
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Castelnuovo

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