Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will square off in the final of the U.S. Open for the 16^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 2:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.78
Carlos Alcaraz -> 2.08

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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

This will be the 16^th time that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz face off. The head to head is 10-5 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 5-2 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Alcaraz won 5-0 ret. in the final in Cincinnati back in August 2025.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner – Cincinnati 18-August-2025

Jannik Sinner

Currently world no. 1 Sinner got to the final after defeating Vit Kopriva 6-1 6-1 6-2, Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-2 6-2, Denis Shapovalov 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3, Alexander Bublik 6-1 6-1 6-1, Lorenzo Musetti 6-1 6-4 6-2 and Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4.

In the semifinal, Sinner defeated Auger-Aliassime (6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match, Sinner scored 120 points vs Auger-Aliassime’s 100. Jannik was quite aggressive to blast 44 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sinner managed to score 11 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Jannik Sinner was quite efficient on serve to win 76% (44/58) of his 1st serve and 67% (34/51) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Sinner broke Auger-Aliassime 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has dropped 2 set in this competition to win 59% of the points he played.

Sinner has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 75% of his matches (383-125). 18-1 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Sinner has an overall156-47 record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 and at the Wimbledon where he beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4.

Sinner has an aggregate 37-4 win-loss record in 2025, 18-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 2, Carlos got to the final after beating Reilly Opelka 6-4 7-5 6-4, Mattia Bellucci 6-1 6-0 6-3, Luciano Darderi 6-2 6-4 6-0, Arthur Rinderknech 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4, Jiri Lehecka 6-4 6-2 6-4 and Novak Djokovic 6-4 7-6(4) 6-2.

In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Djokovic (6-4 7-6⁴ 6-2). During the match Alcaraz scored 101 points vs Djokovic’s 81. Alcaraz was exceptionally aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Talking about serving, Alcaraz bagged 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was pretty effective on serve to win 84% (42/50) of his 1st serve and 54% (21/39) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Spaniard broke Djokovic 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carlos hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 59% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret..

Carlos has an aggregate 60-6 win-loss record in 2025, 22-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, he won this tournament once in 2022. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sinner	Alcaraz
Match played	6	6
Tot Set	20	18
Tot Games	168	169
Pts	598-418	580-411
Total Points	1016	991
Winners	231	242
%Winners	39%	42%

Both Sinner and Alcaraz played 6 matches. At the moment, Jannik Sinner surrendered 2 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sinner has played 2 sets more than Alcaraz (20 vs 18). However, it’s interesting to notice that Sinner played 1 game less than Alcaraz. Jannik scored 231 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Alcaraz scored 242 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sinner	Alcaraz
Aces	44	38
Avg per match	7.3	6.3
1st in	280/496	288/458
%1st in	56%	63%
1st pts	231/280	242/288
%1st pts	83%	84%
2nd pts	127/216	110/170
%2nd pts	59%	65%

Sinner fired 44 aces (7.3 per match). Alcaraz blasted 38 aces (6.3 per match). Sinner won 83% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 84% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sinner	Alcaraz
Won	35	27
Converted	35/66	27/67
% Converted	53%	40%
Conceded	31	9
Saved	27	7
% Saved	87%	78%
Times Broken	4	2

Sinner broke his opponents 35 times with a 53% conversion rate. Jannik dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 87% of the break points that he conceded. Carlos broke his opponents 27 times with a 40% conversion rate. Alcaraz conceded his serve twice and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded.

Sinner
	R1 Kopriva	R2 Popyrin	R3 Shapovalov	R4 Bublik	1/4 Musetti	1/2 Auger-Aliassime	Total
Score	6-1 6-1 6-2	6-3 6-2 6-2	5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3	6-1 6-1 6-1	6-1 6-4 6-2	6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	4	3	3	4	20
Tot Games	22	25	40	21	25	35	168
pts	84-47	95-61	128-108	86-46	85-56	120-100	598-418
Total points	131	156	236	132	141	220	1016
Winners	33	33	54	25	42	44	231
%Winners	39%	35%	42%	29%	49%	37%	39%
SERVE
Aces	7	6	2	8	10	11	44
Double Faults	1	4	5	1	0	4	15
1st in	40/68	41/81	64/110	31/53	46/75	58/109	280/496
% 1st in	59%	51%	58%	58%	61%	53%	56%
1st pts	33/40	33/41	54/64	25/31	42/46	44/58	231/280
% 1st pts	83%	80%	84%	81%	91%	76%	83%
2nd pts	15/28	24/40	23/46	16/22	15/29	34/51	127/216
% 2nd pts	54%	60%	50%	73%	52%	67%	59%
Breaks
Won	7	5	6	8	5	4	35
Converted	7/10	5/9	6/13	8/17	5/6	4/11	35/66
Converted %	70%	56%	46%	47%	83%	36%	53%
Conceded	2	5	6	1	7	10	31
Saved	2/2	5/5	3/6	1/1	7/7	9/10	27
Saved %	100%	100%	50%	100%	100%	90%	90%
Times Broken	0	0	3	0	0	1	4

Alcaraz
	R1 Opelka	R2 Bellucci	R3 Darderi	R4 Rinderknech	1/4 Lehecka	1/2 Djokovic	Total
Score	6-4 7-5 6-4	6-1 6-0 6-3	6-2 6-4 6-0	7-63 6-3 6-4	6-4 6-2 6-4	6-4 7-64 6-2
Tot Set	3	3	3	3	3	3	18
Tot Games	32	22	24	32	28	31	169
pts	107-82	89-52	91-56	100-75	92-65	101-81	580-411
Total points	189	141	147	175	157	182	991
Winners	50	30	37	45	38	42	242
%Winners	47%	34%	41%	45%	41%	42%	42%
SERVE
Aces	4	7	9	6	5	7	38
Double Faults	6	2	1	1	2	2	14
1st in	58/84	35/58	47/70	53/86	45/71	50/89	288/458
% 1st in	69%	60%	67%	62%	63%	56%	63%
1st pts	50/58	30/35	37/47	45/53	38/45	42/50	242/288
% 1st pts	86%	86%	79%	85%	84%	84%	84%
2nd pts	17/26	15/23	13/23	25/33	19/26	21/39	110/170
% 2nd pts	65%	65%	57%	76%	73%	54%	65%
Breaks
Won	3	7	7	2	4	4	27
Converted	3/11	7/17	7/18	2/5	4/9	4/7	27/67
Converted %	27%	41%	39%	40%	44%	57%	40%
Conceded	3	0	3	2	0	1	9
Saved	3/3	0/0	2/3	2/2	0/0	0/1	7
Saved %	100%	–	67%	100%	–	0%	45%
Times Broken	0	0	1	0	0	1	2

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Joe Salisbury/Neal SkupskiSalisbury/Neal Skupski (3-6 7-6⁴ 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (5-10) – H2H and prediction