Nicolas Mejia and Luca Potenza will fight against each other in the semifinal of the Istanbul Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 12:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Nicolas Mejia who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Nicolas Mejia is the pick to win this match.
Nicolas Mejia -> 1.43
Luca Potenza -> 2.66

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Prediction and head to head Nicolas Mejia vs. Luca Potenza

There is no head to head record between Nicolas Mejia and Luca Potenza since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Nicolas Mejia

Ranked no. 246, Mejia got to the semifinal after defeating Ilya Ivashka 6-2 2-1 ret., Marek Gengel 7-6(8) 3-6 6-2 and Milos Karol 6-2 7-6(1).

In the quarter, Mejia had a good straight sets win against Karol (6-2 7-6¹). During the match, Mejia scored 81 points vs Karol’s 66. The Colombian was extremely aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about the service games, Mejia scored just 1 ace during the match and he committed only 1 double fault. Nicolas Mejia conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 6 break points. Furthermore, Mejia put 63% of his first serves in, winning 70% (33/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 68% (19/28) on the 2nd serve. Mejia broke Karol twice after converting 20% of his break points (2/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Colombian has dropped 1 set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.

Mejia has favorable record in the last 10 years having won 54% of his matches (236-202). 17-16 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Mejia has a compiled 100-90 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Savannah Challenger where he defeated Liam Draxl in the final 2-6 6-2 7-6(3).

The Colombian has a compiled 29-23 win-loss record in 2025, 17-16 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Istanbul Challenger

Mejia has never competed in this tournament before.

Luca Potenza

Ranked no. 479, the Italian got to the semifinal after defeating Manas Manoj Dhamne 7-6(3) 6-4, Arda Azkara 6-2 7-6(4), Koray Kirci 7-5 7-5, Norbert Gombos 7-5 6-3 and Calvin Hemery 6-4 7-6(5).

In the quarter, Luca had a good straight sets win against Hemery (6-4 7-6⁵). During the match Potenza scored 84 points vs Hemery’s 75. Luca was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about serving, Potenza blasted 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Luca Potenza lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Potenza put 54% of his first serves in, winning 70% (26/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (19/31) on the 2nd serve. Potenza broke Hemery 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

The Italian’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M15 Monastir.

The Italian has a compiled 46-23 win-loss record in 2025, 43-19 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Mejia	Potenza
Match played	3	5
Tot Set	8	10
Tot Games	62	112
Pts	226-183	406-350
Total Points	409	756
Winners	80	148
%Winners	35%	36%

Mejia played 3 matches while Potenza competed in 5 matches. Potenza started his run from the qualifications while Mejia had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Nicolas Mejia lost 1 set while Luca Potenza hasn’t dropped a set so far. Mejia has played 2 set(s) less than Potenza (8 vs 10). Therefore, Mejia played 50 games less than Potenza. Nicolas scored 80 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Potenza made 148 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Mejia	Potenza
Aces	11	15
Avg per match	3.7	3
1st in	116/192	214/351
%1st in	60%	61%
1st pts	80/116	148/214
%1st pts	69%	69%
2nd pts	48/76	80/137
%2nd pts	63%	58%

Mejia bagged 11 aces (3.7 per match). Potenza made 15 aces (3 per match). Mejia won 69% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Potenza won 69% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Mejia	Potenza
Won	10	19
Converted	10/27	19/49
% Converted	37%	39%
Conceded	15	30
Saved	11	19
% Saved	73%	63%
Times Broken	4	11

The Colombian broke his opponents 10 times with a 37% conversion rate. Mejia conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 19 times with a 39% conversion rate. Luca conceded his serve 11 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.

Mejia
	R1 Ivashka	R2 Gengel	1/4 Karol	Total
Score	6-2 2-1 ret.	7-68 3-6 6-2	6-2 7-61
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	11	30	21	62
pts	41-26	104-91	81-66	226-183
Total points	67	195	147	409
Winners	16	31	33	80
%Winners	39%	30%	41%	35%
SERVE
Aces	1	9	1	11
Double Faults	0	3	1	4
1st in	22/28	47/89	47/75	116/192
% 1st in	79%	53%	63%	60%
1st pts	16/22	31/47	33/47	80/116
% 1st pts	73%	66%	70%	69%
2nd pts	5/6	24/42	19/28	48/76
% 2nd pts	83%	57%	68%	63%
Breaks
Won	3	5	2	10
Converted	3/4	5/13	2/10	10/27
Converted %	75%	38%	20%	37%
Conceded	2	7	6	15
Saved	2/2	3/7	6/6	11
Saved %	100%	43%	100%	81%
Times Broken	0	4	0	4

Potenza
	Q1 Manoj	Q3 Azkara	R1 Kirci	R2 Gombos	1/4 Hemery	Total
Score	7-63 6-4	6-2 7-64	7-5 7-5	7-5 6-3	6-4 7-65
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	2	10
Tot Games	23	21	24	21	23	112
pts	85-76	85-72	79-67	73-60	84-75	406-350
Total points	161	157	146	133	159	756
Winners	29	39	28	26	26	148
%Winners	34%	46%	35%	36%	31%	36%
SERVE
Aces	6	1	2	3	3	15
Double Faults	1	2	2	1	2	8
1st in	44/72	52/79	41/69	40/63	37/68	214/351
% 1st in	61%	66%	59%	63%	54%	61%
1st pts	29/44	39/52	28/41	26/40	26/37	148/214
% 1st pts	66%	75%	68%	65%	70%	69%
2nd pts	18/28	14/27	16/28	13/23	19/31	80/137
% 2nd pts	64%	52%	57%	57%	61%	58%
Breaks
Won	3	3	5	5	3	19
Converted	3/10	3/10	5/14	5/8	3/7	19/49
Converted %	30%	30%	36%	63%	43%	39%
Conceded	6	9	6	5	4	30
Saved	4/6	8/9	3/6	2/5	2/4	19
Saved %	67%	89%	50%	40%	50%	99%
Times Broken	2	1	3	3	2	11

Tennis Scores in Istanbul Challenger

• Alex MolcanMolcan – Abedallah ShelbayhShelbayh (4-6 6-1 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Nicolas MejiaMejia – Milos KarolKarol (6-2 7-6¹) – See score progression
• Stefanos SakellaridisSakellaridis – Hugo GrenierGrenier (7-5 6-7³ 6-2) – See score progression
• Luca PotenzaPotenza – Calvin HemeryHemery (6-4 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Benjamin Hassan/Andreas MiesHassan/Andreas Mies – Guido Andreozzi/Daniil GolubevAndreozzi/Daniil Golubev (7-6¹ 6-7⁶ 10-3) – See score progression
• Nicolas MejiaMejia – Milos KarolKarol (6-2 7-6(1)) – See score progression
• Luca PotenzaPotenza – Calvin HemeryHemery (6-4 7-6(5)) – See score progression
• Alex MolcanMolcan – Abedallah ShelbayhShelbayh (4-6 6-1 7-6(5)) – See score progression
• Stefanos SakellaridisSakellaridis – Hugo GrenierGrenier (7-5 6-7(3) 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Alex MolcanMolcan – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nicolas MejiaMejia – Luca PotenzaPotenza (0-0) – H2H and prediction