Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will fight against each other in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 9^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 3:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 4 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.35
Novak Djokovic -> 3.32

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic

This will be the 9^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic clash against each other. The head to head is 5-3 for Djokovic (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Djokovic won 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4 in the quarter in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.

Highlights Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz – Australian Open 21-January-2025

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 2, Alcaraz reached the semifinal after beating Reilly Opelka 6-4 7-5 6-4, Mattia Bellucci 6-1 6-0 6-3, Luciano Darderi 6-2 6-4 6-0, Arthur Rinderknech 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4 and Jiri Lehecka 6-4 6-2 6-4.

In the quarter, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Lehecka (6-4 6-2 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 92 points vs Lehecka’s 65. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz made 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was extremely effective on serve to win 84% (38/45) of his 1st serve and 73% (19/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Carlos broke Lehecka 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 59% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (346-82). 21-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has an overall118-29 record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he overcame Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret..

Alcaraz has an overall 59-6 win-loss record in 2025, 21-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Novak Djokovic

Ranked no. 7, the Serbian got to the semifinal after beating Learner Tien 6-1 7-6(3) 6-2

, Zachary Svajda 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-1, Cameron Norrie 6-4 6-7(4) 6-2 6-3, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3 6-3 6-2 and Taylor Fritz 6-3 7-5 3-6 6-4.

In the quarter, Novak had a good straight sets win against Fritz (6-3 7-5 3-6 6-4). During the match Djokovic scored 130 points vs Fritz’s 126. Djokovic was extremely aggressive to blast 63 winners.

Talking about serving, Djokovic scored 10 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Overall, Novak Djokovic was extremely effective on serve to win 72% (63/88) of his 1st serve and 55% (28/51) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Serbian broke Fritz 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Novak has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Geneva where he defeated Hubert Hurkacz in the final 5-7 7-6(2) 7-6(2).

Djokovic has a compiled 31-9 win-loss record in 2025, 17-5 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, he won this tournament 4 times in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Djokovic
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	15	18
Tot Games	138	172
Pts	479-330	582-458
Total Points	809	1040
Winners	200	250
%Winners	42%	43%

Both Alcaraz and Djokovic played 5 matches. At the moment, Novak Djokovic dropped 3 sets while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t lost a set so far. Alcaraz has played 3 set(s) less than Djokovic (15 vs 18). Therefore, Alcaraz played 34 games less than Djokovic. The Spaniard scored 200 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Serbian blasted 250 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Djokovic
Aces	31	57
Avg per match	6.2	11.4
1st in	238/369	319/515
%1st in	64%	62%
1st pts	200/238	250/319
%1st pts	84%	78%
2nd pts	89/131	116/196
%2nd pts	68%	59%

Alcaraz struck 31 aces (6.2 per match). Djokovic struck 57 aces (11.4 per match). Alcaraz won 84% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Djokovic won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Djokovic
Won	23	27
Converted	23/60	27/53
% Converted	38%	51%
Conceded	8	26
Saved	7	19
% Saved	88%	73%
Times Broken	1	7

The Spaniard broke his opponents 23 times with a 38% conversion rate. Alcaraz conceded his serve once and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded. Djokovic broke his opponents 27 times with a 51% conversion rate. The Serbian conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R1 Opelka	R2 Bellucci	R3 Darderi	R4 Rinderknech	1/4 Lehecka	Total
Score	6-4 7-5 6-4	6-1 6-0 6-3	6-2 6-4 6-0	7-63 6-3 6-4	6-4 6-2 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	3	3	3	15
Tot Games	32	22	24	32	28	138
pts	107-82	89-52	91-56	100-75	92-65	479-330
Total points	189	141	147	175	157	809
Winners	50	30	37	45	38	200
%Winners	47%	34%	41%	45%	41%	42%
SERVE
Aces	4	7	9	6	5	31
Double Faults	6	2	1	1	2	12
1st in	58/84	35/58	47/70	53/86	45/71	238/369
% 1st in	69%	60%	67%	62%	63%	64%
1st pts	50/58	30/35	37/47	45/53	38/45	200/238
% 1st pts	86%	86%	79%	85%	84%	84%
2nd pts	17/26	15/23	13/23	25/33	19/26	89/131
% 2nd pts	65%	65%	57%	76%	73%	68%
Breaks
Won	3	7	7	2	4	23
Converted	3/11	7/17	7/18	2/5	4/9	23/60
Converted %	27%	41%	39%	40%	44%	38%
Conceded	3	0	3	2	0	8
Saved	3/3	0/0	2/3	2/2	0/0	7
Saved %	100%	–	67%	100%	–	53%
Times Broken	0	0	1	0	0	1

Djokovic
	R1 Tien	R2 Svajda	R3 Norrie	R4 Struff	1/4 Fritz	Total
Score	6-1 7-63 6-2	6-75 6-3 6-3 6-1	6-4 6-74 6-2 6-3	6-3 6-3 6-2	6-3 7-5 3-6 6-4
Tot Set	3	4	4	3	4	18
Tot Games	28	38	40	26	40	172
pts	108-75	125-94	129-101	90-62	130-126	582-458
Total points	183	219	230	152	256	1040
Winners	43	51	55	38	63	250
%Winners	40%	41%	43%	42%	48%	43%
SERVE
Aces	7	10	18	12	10	57
Double Faults	4	4	6	0	8	22
1st in	56/94	61/104	66/104	48/74	88/139	319/515
% 1st in	60%	59%	63%	65%	63%	62%
1st pts	43/56	51/61	55/66	38/48	63/88	250/319
% 1st pts	77%	84%	83%	79%	72%	78%
2nd pts	18/38	29/43	26/38	15/26	28/51	116/196
% 2nd pts	47%	67%	68%	58%	55%	59%
Breaks
Won	6	6	5	6	4	27
Converted	6/9	6/15	5/12	6/8	4/9	27/53
Converted %	67%	40%	42%	75%	44%	51%
Conceded	8	3	1	1	13	26
Saved	6/8	2/3	0/1	0/1	11/13	19
Saved %	75%	67%	0%	0%	85%	45%
Times Broken	2	1	1	1	2	7

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (4-6 7-6⁷ 7-5 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Joe Salisbury/Neal SkupskiSalisbury/Neal Skupski – Tomas Machac/Matej VocelMachac/Matej Vocel (7-6⁶ 6-3) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-1 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Marcel Granollers/Horacio ZeballosGranollers/Horacio Zeballos – Constantin Frantzen/Robin HaaseFrantzen/Robin Haase (7-5 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• Robert Cash/James TracyCash/James Tracy – Sadio Doumbia/Fabien ReboulDoumbia/Fabien Reboul (6-1 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Taylor FritzFritz (6-3 7-5 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (6-4 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (6-1 6-4 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (5-3) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (1-2) – H2H and prediction