Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will square off in the semifinal of the U.S. Open for the 10^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.333
Jessica Pegula -> 3.42

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

This will be the 10^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula clash against each other. The head to head is 7-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-2 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 7-5 6-2 in the final in Miami back in March 2025.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula – Miami 29-March-2025

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the semifinal after defeating Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1, Polina Kudermetova 7-6(4) 6-2, Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-3 7-6(2), Cristina Bucsa 6-1 6-4 and Marketa Vondrousova w/o.

In the quarter, Aryna defeated Vondrousova (w/o). During the match, Sabalenka and Vondrousova scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 1 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The Belarussian was not very aggressive to strike just winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka was unable to score even 1 ace throughout the match and she was exceptionally steady in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of her first serves in, win 0% (0) of the points behind her 1st serve and 0% (0) on the 2nd serve.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to conquer 56% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a tremendous match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of her matches (428-178). 30-5 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has a compiled 257-97 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she beat Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).

The Belarussian has an overall 54-10 win-loss record in 2025, 30-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 4, Pegula reached the semifinal after defeating Mayar Sherif 6-0 6-4, Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-3, Victoria Azarenka 6-1 7-5, Ann Li 6-1 6-2 and Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 6-3.

In the quarter, Pegula had a good straight sets win against Krejcikova (6-3 6-3). During the match Pegula scored 69 points vs Krejcikova’s 51. Jessica was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about serving, Pegula scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she committed only 4 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve twice and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 59% of her first serves in, winning 71% (24/34) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (11/24) on the 2nd serve. Jessica broke Krejcikova 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 60% of the points she played.

Her best result of the year was winning the title in Austin where she overcame Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she defeated Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Bad Homburg where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 7-5.

Pegula has an overall 42-16 win-loss record in 2025, 27-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Pegula
Match played	4	5
Tot Set	8	10
Tot Games	79	84
Pts	289-229	329-221
Total Points	518	550
Winners	125	114
%Winners	43%	35%

Sabalenka played 4 matches while Pegula competed in 5 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Sabalenka has played 2 set(s) less than Pegula (8 vs 10). Therefore, Sabalenka played 5 games less than Pegula. The Belarussian scored 125 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Jessica scored 114 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Pegula
Aces	16	11
Avg per match	4	2.2
1st in	158/264	158/266
%1st in	60%	59%
1st pts	125/158	114/158
%1st pts	79%	72%
2nd pts	57/106	52/108
%2nd pts	54%	48%

Sabalenka made 16 aces (4 per match). Pegula scored 11 aces (2.2 per match). Sabalenka won 79% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 72% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Pegula
Won	11	29
Converted	11/22	29/53
% Converted	50%	55%
Conceded	19	21
Saved	17	12
% Saved	89%	57%
Times Broken	2	9

Sabalenka broke her opponents 11 times with a 50% conversion rate. Sabalenka surrendered her serve twice and she saved 89% of the break points that she conceded. Pegula broke her opponents 29 times with a 55% conversion rate. Pegula conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R1 Masarova	R2 Kudermetova	R3 Annie	R4 Bucsa	1/4 Vondrousova	Total
Score	7-5 6-1	7-64 6-2	6-3 7-62	6-1 6-4	w/o
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	–	8
Tot Games	19	21	22	17	–	79
pts	66-47	80-68	77-65	66-49	–	289-229
Total points	113	148	142	115	–	518
Winners	23	35	41	26	–	125
%Winners	35%	44%	53%	39%	–	43%
SERVE
Aces	2	5	6	3	–	16
Double Faults	2	5	4	2	–	13
1st in	30/57	45/75	52/82	31/50	–	158/264
% 1st in	53%	60%	63%	62%	–	60%
1st pts	23/30	35/45	41/52	26/31	–	125/158
% 1st pts	77%	78%	79%	84%	–	79%
2nd pts	17/27	14/30	15/30	11/19	–	57/106
% 2nd pts	63%	47%	50%	58%	–	54%
Breaks
Won	4	3	1	3	–	11
Converted	4/5	3/5	1/3	3/9	–	11/22
Converted %	80%	60%	33%	33%	–	50%
Conceded	6	9	4	0	–	19
Saved	5/6	8/9	4/4	0/0	–	17
Saved %	83%	89%	100%	–	–	54%
Times Broken	1	1	0	0	–	2

Pegula
	R1 Sherif	R2 Blinkova	R3 Azarenka	R4 Li	1/4 Krejcikova	Total
Score	6-0 6-4	6-1 6-3	6-1 7-5	6-1 6-2	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	2	10
Tot Games	16	16	19	15	18	84
pts	65-41	58-41	81-59	56-29	69-51	329-221
Total points	106	99	140	85	120	550
Winners	27	21	25	17	24	114
%Winners	42%	36%	31%	30%	35%	35%
SERVE
Aces	1	2	5	2	1	11
Double Faults	3	0	1	1	4	9
1st in	34/56	33/52	37/64	20/36	34/58	158/266
% 1st in	61%	63%	58%	56%	59%	59%
1st pts	27/34	21/33	25/37	17/20	24/34	114/158
% 1st pts	79%	64%	68%	85%	71%	72%
2nd pts	7/22	10/19	15/27	9/16	11/24	52/108
% 2nd pts	32%	53%	56%	56%	46%	48%
Breaks
Won	6	6	6	6	5	29
Converted	6/9	6/11	6/15	6/9	5/9	29/53
Converted %	67%	55%	40%	67%	56%	55%
Conceded	7	4	6	1	3	21
Saved	5/7	2/4	4/6	0/1	1/3	12
Saved %	71%	50%	67%	0%	33%	44%
Times Broken	2	2	2	1	2	9

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Katerina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend – Veronika Kudermetova/Elise MertensKudermetova/Elise Mertens (6-3 7-6³) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Gabriela Dabrowski/Erin RoutliffeDabrowski/Erin Routliffe – Sara Errani/Jasmine PaoliniErrani/Jasmine Paolini (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Dennis NovakNovak – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (6-7¹ 7-6³ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Go SoedaSoeda (6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jessica PegulaPegula (7-2) – H2H and prediction
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (0-2) – H2H and prediction