Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka will face off in the quarter of the U.S. Open for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.533
Karolina Muchova -> 2.56

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Prediction and head to head Karolina Muchova vs. Naomi Osaka

This will be the 5^th time that Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka clash against each other. The head to head is 2-2 (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Osaka won 1-6 6-1 6-3 in the 2^nd round in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.

Highlights Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova – Australian Open 15-January-2025

Karolina Muchova

Ranked no. 13, Muchova reached the quarter after beating Venus Williams 6-3 2-6 6-1, Sorana Cirstea 7-6(0) 6-7(3) 6-4, Linda Noskova 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2 and Marta Kostyuk 6-3 6-7(0) 6-3.

In the 4^th round, Muchova defeated Kostyuk (6-3 6-7⁰ 6-3). During the match, Muchova scored 105 points vs Kostyuk’s 103. Karolina was pretty aggressive to blast 51 winners.

Regarding the service games, Muchova scored just 1 ace in the match and she committed only 2 double faults. Karolina Muchova lost the serve once and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 59% of her first serves in, winning 68% (51/75) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (27/52) on the 2nd serve. Muchova broke Kostyuk 3 times after converting 50% of her break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Muchova has surrendered 4 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Muchova has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (246-120). 17-8 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Muchova has an aggregate 129-53 match record in the last years on hard.

Muchova’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Australia, Linz and Dubai.

Muchova has an aggregate 20-12 win-loss record in 2025, 17-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Naomi Osaka

Ranked no. 24, the Japanese got to the quarter after beating Greetje Minnen 6-3 6-4, Hailey Baptiste 6-3 6-1, Daria Kasatkina 6-0 4-6 6-3 and Cori Gauff 6-3 6-2.

In the 4^th round, The Japanese had a good straight sets win against Gauff (6-3 6-2). During the match Osaka scored 55 points vs Gauff’s 33. Osaka was very aggressive to blast 15 winners.

Talking about serving, Osaka scored 3 aces and she was extremely solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Naomi Osaka was very effective on serve to win 94% (15/16) of her 1st serve and 77% (17/22) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Osaka was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Gauff 4 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Osaka has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 60% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title the Malo where she defeated Kaja Juvan in the final 6-1 7-5.

The Japanese has an aggregate 31-12 win-loss record in 2025, 20-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, she won this tournament twice in 2018 and 2020. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Muchova	Osaka
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	12	9
Tot Games	122	77
Pts	430-384	268-182
Total Points	814	450
Winners	179	93
%Winners	42%	35%

Both Muchova and Osaka played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Karolina Muchova conceded 4 sets, while Naomi Osaka conceded 1 set. Muchova has played 3 sets more than Osaka (12 vs 9). Therefore, Muchova played 45 games more than Osaka. Karolina scored 179 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Naomi blasted 93 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Muchova	Osaka
Aces	17	23
Avg per match	4.3	5.8
1st in	251/397	126/225
%1st in	63%	56%
1st pts	179/251	93/126
%1st pts	71%	74%
2nd pts	69/146	54/99
%2nd pts	47%	55%

Muchova scored 17 aces (4.3 per match). Osaka recorded 23 aces (5.8 per match). Muchova won 71% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 74% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Muchova	Osaka
Won	19	22
Converted	19/56	22/27
% Converted	34%	81%
Conceded	32	16
Saved	21	8
% Saved	66%	50%
Times Broken	11	8

Muchova broke her opponents 19 times with a 34% conversion rate. Muchova conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 66% of the break points that she conceded. Osaka broke her opponents 22 times with a 81% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded.

Muchova
	R1 Williams	R2 Cirstea	R3 Noskova	R4 Kostyuk	Total
Score	6-3 2-6 6-1	7-60 6-73 6-4	6-75 6-4 6-2	6-3 6-70 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	3	3	12
Tot Games	24	36	31	31	122
pts	85-71	125-115	115-95	105-103	430-384
Total points	156	240	210	208	814
Winners	38	53	37	51	179
%Winners	45%	42%	32%	49%	42%
SERVE
Aces	7	2	7	1	17
Double Faults	2	3	2	2	9
1st in	48/69	77/115	51/86	75/127	251/397
% 1st in	70%	67%	59%	59%	63%
1st pts	38/48	53/77	37/51	51/75	179/251
% 1st pts	79%	69%	73%	68%	71%
2nd pts	7/21	15/38	20/35	27/52	69/146
% 2nd pts	33%	39%	57%	52%	47%
Breaks
Won	5	6	5	3	19
Converted	5/12	6/20	5/18	3/6	19/56
Converted %	42%	30%	28%	50%	34%
Conceded	7	13	2	10	32
Saved	4/7	8/13	0/2	9/10	21
Saved %	57%	62%	0%	90%	52%
Times Broken	3	5	2	1	11

Osaka
	R1 Minnen	R2 Baptiste	R3 Kasatkina	R4 Gauff	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-1	6-0 4-6 6-3	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	19	16	25	17	77
pts	69-49	61-39	83-61	55-33	268-182
Total points	118	100	144	88	450
Winners	26	20	32	15	93
%Winners	38%	33%	39%	27%	35%
SERVE
Aces	7	4	9	3	23
Double Faults	0	1	4	0	5
1st in	38/65	29/48	43/74	16/38	126/225
% 1st in	58%	60%	58%	42%	56%
1st pts	26/38	20/29	32/43	15/16	93/126
% 1st pts	68%	69%	74%	94%	74%
2nd pts	12/27	12/19	13/31	17/22	54/99
% 2nd pts	44%	63%	42%	77%	55%
Breaks
Won	6	5	7	4	22
Converted	6/6	5/8	7/9	4/4	22/27
Converted %	100%	63%	78%	100%	81%
Conceded	7	3	6	0	16
Saved	4/7	2/3	2/6	0/0	8
Saved %	57%	67%	33%	–	39%
Times Broken	3	1	4	0	8

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Jessica PegulaPegula – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Gabriela Dabrowski/Erin RoutliffeDabrowski/Erin Routliffe – Timea Babos/Luisa StefaniBabos/Luisa Stefani (0-6 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Katerina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend – Leylah Annie Fernandez/Venus WilliamsAnnie Fernandez/Venus Williams (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Sara Errani/Jasmine PaoliniErrani/Jasmine Paolini – Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi Schuurs (6-1 7-6⁵) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Veronika Kudermetova/Elise MertensKudermetova/Elise Mertens – Mirra Andreeva/Diana ShnaiderAndreeva/Diana Shnaider (6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Dennis NovakNovak – Lukas RosolRosol (6-7⁹ 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Go SoedaSoeda – Marcel GranollersGranollers (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Ugo HumbertHumbert (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Antoine HoangHoang (6-3 5-7 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (5-4) – H2H and prediction
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Naomi OsakaOsaka (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-1) – H2H and prediction