Alex De Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime will square off in the quarter of the U.S. Open for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 11:30 am on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.59
Felix Auger-Aliassime -> 2.42

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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime

This will be the 6^th time that Alex De Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime fight against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Auger-Aliassime (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, De Minaur won 6-7(2) 6-4 6-4 in the 3^rd round in Rome back in 2024.

Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Felix Auger-Aliassime – Rome 13-May-2024

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 8, Alex got to the quarter after beating Christopher O Connell 6-3 6-4 6-4, Shintaro Mochizuki 6-2 6-4 6-2, Daniel Altmaier 6-7(7) 6-3 6-4 2-0 ret. and Leandro Riedi 6-3 6-2 6-1.

In the 4^th round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Riedi (6-3 6-2 6-1). During the match, De Minaur scored 90 points vs Riedi’s 57. De Minaur was very aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Talking about the service games, De Minaur bagged 9 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Alex De Minaur lost the serve twice and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, De Minaur put 62% of his first serves in, winning 73% (35/48) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (14/29) on the 2nd serve. De Minaur broke Riedi 8 times after converting 53% of his break points (8/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

De Minaur hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points he played.

De Minaur has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 65% of his matches (400-220). 23-7 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, De Minaur has a compiled 194-93 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in Washington where he defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final 5-7 6-1 7-6(3).

Alex has a composed 41-15 win-loss record in 2025, 23-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Ranked no. 27, Felix reached the quarter after defeating Billy Harris 6-4 7-6(8) 6-4, Roman Safiullin 6-1 7-6(4) 7-6(5)

, Alexander Zverev 4-6 7-6(7) 6-4 6-4 and Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-3 6-4.

In the 4^th round, Felix had a good straight sets win against Rublev (7-5 6-3 6-4). During the match Auger-Aliassime scored 104 points vs Rublev’s 80. The Canadian was quite aggressive to blast 50 winners.

Talking about serving, Auger-Aliassime made 13 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Felix Auger-Aliassime was very efficient on serve to win 83% (50/60) of his 1st serve and 55% (17/31) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Auger-Aliassime broke Rublev 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Canadian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was conquering the title in Adelaide where he defeated Sebastian Korda in the final 6-3 3-6 6-1 and in Montpellier where he defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic in the final 6-2 6-7(7) 7-6(2).

Auger-Aliassime has an aggregate 33-19 win-loss record in 2025, 20-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2021. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	De Minaur	Auger-Aliassime
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	14	13
Tot Games	113	140
Pts	408-307	490-408
Total Points	715	898
Winners	157	219
%Winners	38%	45%

Both De Minaur and Auger-Aliassime played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex De Minaur lost 1 set, while Felix Auger-Aliassime dropped 1 set. De Minaur has played 1 set more than Auger-Aliassime (14 vs 13). However, it’s interesting to notice that De Minaur played 27 games less than Auger-Aliassime. Alex scored 157 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Felix made 219 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	De Minaur	Auger-Aliassime
Aces	36	47
Avg per match	9	11.8
1st in	205/358	280/433
%1st in	57%	65%
1st pts	157/205	219/280
%1st pts	77%	78%
2nd pts	90/153	89/153
%2nd pts	59%	58%

De Minaur managed to score 36 aces (9 per match). Auger-Aliassime bagged 47 aces (11.8 per match). De Minaur won 77% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Auger-Aliassime won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	De Minaur	Auger-Aliassime
Won	21	15
Converted	21/42	15/34
% Converted	50%	44%
Conceded	26	30
Saved	22	23
% Saved	85%	77%
Times Broken	4	7

The Australian broke his opponents 21 times with a 50% conversion rate. De Minaur dropped his serve 4 times and he saved 85% of the break points that he conceded. Felix broke his opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Canadian conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded.

De Minaur
	R1 O Connell	R2 Mochizuki	R3 Altmaier	R4 Riedi	Total
Score	6-3 6-4 6-4	6-2 6-4 6-2	6-77 6-3 6-4 2-0 ret.	6-3 6-2 6-1
Tot Set	3	3	4	3	13
Tot Games	29	26	34	24	113
pts	95-76	101-75	122-99	90-57	408-307
Total points	171	176	221	147	715
Winners	36	40	46	35	157
%Winners	38%	40%	38%	39%	38%
SERVE
Aces	10	6	11	9	36
Double Faults	1	4	5	3	13
1st in	39/78	58/92	60/111	48/77	205/358
% 1st in	50%	63%	54%	62%	57%
1st pts	36/39	40/58	46/60	35/48	157/205
% 1st pts	92%	69%	77%	73%	77%
2nd pts	25/39	17/34	34/51	14/29	90/153
% 2nd pts	64%	50%	67%	48%	59%
Breaks
Won	3	7	3	8	21
Converted	3/11	7/9	3/7	8/15	21/42
Converted %	27%	78%	43%	53%	50%
Conceded	0	14	6	6	26
Saved	0/0	12/14	6/6	4/6	22
Saved %	–	86%	100%	67%	63%
Times Broken	0	2	0	2	4

Auger-Aliassime
	R1 Harris	R2 Safiullin	R3 Zverev	R4 Rublev	Total
Score	6-4 7-68 6-4	6-1 7-64 7-65	4-6 7-67 6-4 6-4	7-5 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	4	3	13
Tot Games	33	33	43	31	140
pts	115-102	130-105	141-121	104-80	490-408
Total points	217	235	262	184	898
Winners	53	57	59	50	219
%Winners	46%	44%	42%	48%	45%
SERVE
Aces	10	14	10	13	47
Double Faults	5	5	8	4	22
1st in	72/107	72/106	76/129	60/91	280/433
% 1st in	67%	68%	59%	66%	65%
1st pts	53/72	57/72	59/76	50/60	219/280
% 1st pts	74%	79%	78%	83%	78%
2nd pts	17/35	20/34	35/53	17/31	89/153
% 2nd pts	49%	59%	66%	55%	58%
Breaks
Won	5	3	3	4	15
Converted	5/8	3/13	3/6	4/7	15/34
Converted %	63%	23%	50%	57%	44%
Conceded	10	7	9	4	30
Saved	7/10	6/7	7/9	3/4	23
Saved %	70%	86%	78%	75%	77%
Times Broken	3	1	2	1	7

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Taylor FritzFritz (6-3 7-5 3-6 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (6-4 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (5-3) – H2H and prediction
• Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (3-2) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (2-0) – H2H and prediction