Aryna Sabalenka and Marketa Vondrousova will play each other in the quarter of the U.S. Open for the 10^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.4
Marketa Vondrousova -> 3.04

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marketa Vondrousova

This will be the 10^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Marketa Vondrousova face off. The head to head is 5-4 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-1 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 7-5 6-1

in the 2^nd round in Cincinnati back in August 2025.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova – Cincinnati 09-August-2025

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Aryna reached the quarter after beating Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1, Polina Kudermetova 7-6(4) 6-2, Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-3 7-6(2) and Cristina Bucsa 6-1 6-4.

In the 4^th round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Bucsa (6-1 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Bucsa’s 49. Aryna was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka struck 3 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka was extremely effective on serve to win 84% (26/31) of her 1st serve and 58% (11/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sabalenka broke Bucsa 3 times after converting 33% of her break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 56% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a tremendous match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of her matches (428-178). 30-5 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has a compiled 257-97 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she defeated Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).

Sabalenka has a composed 54-10 win-loss record in 2025, 30-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Marketa Vondrousova

Ranked no. 60, Vondrousova got to the quarter after beating Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3 7-6(3), Mccartney Kessler 7-6(7) 6-2, Jasmine Paolini 7-6(4) 6-1 and Elena Rybakina 6-4 5-7 6-2.

In the 4^th round, Marketa defeated Rybakina (6-4 5-7 6-2). During the match Vondrousova scored 89 points vs Rybakina ‘s 80. The Czech was exceptionally aggressive to blast 45 winners.

Talking about serving, Vondrousova blasted 13 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Marketa Vondrousova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Vondrousova put 70% of her first serves in, winning 74% (45/61) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (13/26) on the 2nd serve. The Czech broke Rybakina 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Czech has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Berlin where she overcame Xinyu Wang in the final 7-6(10) 4-6 6-2.

Marketa has an aggregate 18-8 win-loss record in 2025, 10-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Vondrousova
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	8	9
Tot Games	79	93
Pts	289-229	340-289
Total Points	518	629
Winners	125	141
%Winners	43%	41%

Both Sabalenka and Vondrousova played 4 matches. At the moment, Marketa Vondrousova lost 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Vondrousova (8 vs 9). Therefore, Sabalenka played 14 games less than Vondrousova. Sabalenka scored 125 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Vondrousova recorded 141 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Vondrousova
Aces	16	27
Avg per match	4	6.8
1st in	158/264	199/319
%1st in	60%	62%
1st pts	125/158	141/199
%1st pts	79%	71%
2nd pts	57/106	57/120
%2nd pts	54%	48%

Sabalenka managed to score 16 aces (4 per match). Vondrousova bagged 27 aces (6.8 per match). Sabalenka won 79% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Vondrousova won 71% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Vondrousova
Won	11	18
Converted	11/22	18/37
% Converted	50%	49%
Conceded	19	27
Saved	17	16
% Saved	89%	59%
Times Broken	2	11

The Belarussian broke her opponents 11 times with a 50% conversion rate. Aryna dropped her serve twice and she saved 89% of the break points that she conceded. The Czech broke her opponents 18 times with a 49% conversion rate. Vondrousova conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 59% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R1 Masarova	R2 Kudermetova	R3 Annie	R4 Bucsa	Total
Score	7-5 6-1	7-64 6-2	6-3 7-62	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	19	21	22	17	79
pts	66-47	80-68	77-65	66-49	289-229
Total points	113	148	142	115	518
Winners	23	35	41	26	125
%Winners	35%	44%	53%	39%	43%
SERVE
Aces	2	5	6	3	16
Double Faults	2	5	4	2	13
1st in	30/57	45/75	52/82	31/50	158/264
% 1st in	53%	60%	63%	62%	60%
1st pts	23/30	35/45	41/52	26/31	125/158
% 1st pts	77%	78%	79%	84%	79%
2nd pts	17/27	14/30	15/30	11/19	57/106
% 2nd pts	63%	47%	50%	58%	54%
Breaks
Won	4	3	1	3	11
Converted	4/5	3/5	1/3	3/9	11/22
Converted %	80%	60%	33%	33%	50%
Conceded	6	9	4	0	19
Saved	5/6	8/9	4/4	0/0	17
Saved %	83%	89%	100%	–	68%
Times Broken	1	1	0	0	2

Vondrousova
	R1 Selekhmeteva	R2 Kessler	R3 Paolini	R4 Rybakina	Total
Score	6-3 7-63	7-67 6-2	7-64 6-1	6-4 5-7 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	9
Tot Games	22	21	20	30	93
pts	91-69	87-78	73-62	89-80	340-289
Total points	160	165	135	169	629
Winners	32	31	33	45	141
%Winners	35%	36%	45%	51%	41%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	6	13	27
Double Faults	12	9	4	5	30
1st in	45/78	48/85	45/69	61/87	199/319
% 1st in	58%	56%	65%	70%	62%
1st pts	32/45	31/48	33/45	45/61	141/199
% 1st pts	71%	65%	73%	74%	71%
2nd pts	13/33	17/37	14/24	13/26	57/120
% 2nd pts	39%	46%	58%	50%	48%
Breaks
Won	6	5	2	5	18
Converted	6/10	5/12	2/8	5/7	18/37
Converted %	60%	42%	25%	71%	49%
Conceded	10	9	2	6	27
Saved	5/10	6/9	2/2	3/6	16
Saved %	50%	67%	100%	50%	67%
Times Broken	5	3	0	3	11

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Go SoedaSoeda – Marcel GranollersGranollers (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Ugo HumbertHumbert (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Antoine HoangHoang (6-3 5-7 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Dennis NovakNovak – Lukas RosolRosol (6-7⁹ 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Cori GauffGauff (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (5-4) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (1-2) – H2H and prediction