Karolina Muchova and Marta Kostyuk will fight against each other in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:00 pm on Grandstand. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Karolina Muchova who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Karolina Muchova is the pick to win this match.
Karolina Muchova -> 1.62
Marta Kostyuk -> 2.3

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Karolina Muchova vs. Marta Kostyuk

There is no head to head record between Karolina Muchova and Marta Kostyuk since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Karolina Muchova

Ranked no. 13, the Czech got to the 4^th round after defeating Venus Williams 6-3 2-6 6-1, Sorana Cirstea 7-6(0) 6-7(3) 6-4 and Linda Noskova 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2.

In the 3^rd round against Noskova, Karolina recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-7⁵ 6-4 6-2). During the match, Muchova scored 115 points vs Noskova’s 95. Karolina was extremely aggressive to blast 37 winners.

Regarding the service games, Muchova fired 7 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Karolina Muchova was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 73% (37/51) of her 1st serve and 57% (20/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Karolina broke Noskova 5 times after converting 28% of her break points (5/18).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Czech has conceded 3 set in this event to conquer 54% of the points she played.

Muchova has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (245-120). 16-8 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Muchova has a compiled 128-53 record in the last years on hard.

Muchova’s best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in Australia, Linz and Dubai.

Muchova has an aggregate 19-12 win-loss record in 2025, 16-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Marta Kostyuk

Ranked no. 28, Kostyuk got to the 4^th round after beating Katie Boulter 6-4 6-4, Zeynep Sonmez 7-5 6-7(5) 6-3 and Diane Parry 3-6 6-4 6-2.

In the 3^rd round against Parry, Marta recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-2). During the match Kostyuk scored 104 points vs Parry’s 90. Marta was extremely aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Talking about serving, Kostyuk blasted 3 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Marta Kostyuk was quite efficient on serve to win 73% (35/48) of her 1st serve and 51% (20/39) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve 3 times. Kostyuk broke Parry 5 times after converting 31% of her break points (5/16).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Marta has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Kostyuk has a composed 24-17 win-loss record in 2025, 17-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2020 and 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Muchova	Kostyuk
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	9	8
Tot Games	91	81
Pts	325-281	288-255
Total Points	606	543
Winners	128	107
%Winners	39%	37%

Both Muchova and Kostyuk played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Karolina Muchova dropped 3 sets, while Marta Kostyuk surrendered 2 sets. Muchova has played 1 set more than Kostyuk (9 vs 8). Therefore, Muchova played 10 games more than Kostyuk. Karolina scored 128 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Marta made 107 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Muchova	Kostyuk
Aces	16	18
Avg per match	5.3	6
1st in	176/270	147/263
%1st in	65%	56%
1st pts	128/176	107/147
%1st pts	73%	73%
2nd pts	42/94	56/116
%2nd pts	45%	48%

Muchova made 16 aces (5.3 per match). Kostyuk recorded 18 aces (6 per match). Muchova won 73% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 73% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Muchova	Kostyuk
Won	16	16
Converted	16/50	16/39
% Converted	32%	41%
Conceded	22	33
Saved	12	24
% Saved	55%	73%
Times Broken	10	9

The Czech broke her opponents 16 times with a 32% conversion rate. Muchova surrendered her serve 10 times and she saved 55% of the break points that she conceded. Marta broke her opponents 16 times with a 41% conversion rate. Kostyuk conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 73% of the break points that she conceded.

Muchova
	R1 Williams	R2 Cirstea	R3 Noskova	Total
Score	6-3 2-6 6-1	7-60 6-73 6-4	6-75 6-4 6-2
Tot Set	3	3	3	9
Tot Games	24	36	31	91
pts	85-71	125-115	115-95	325-281
Total points	156	240	210	606
Winners	38	53	37	128
%Winners	45%	42%	32%	39%
SERVE
Aces	7	2	7	16
Double Faults	2	3	2	7
1st in	48/69	77/115	51/86	176/270
% 1st in	70%	67%	59%	65%
1st pts	38/48	53/77	37/51	128/176
% 1st pts	79%	69%	73%	73%
2nd pts	7/21	15/38	20/35	42/94
% 2nd pts	33%	39%	57%	45%
Breaks
Won	5	6	5	16
Converted	5/12	6/20	5/18	16/50
Converted %	42%	30%	28%	32%
Conceded	7	13	2	22
Saved	4/7	8/13	0/2	12
Saved %	57%	62%	0%	40%
Times Broken	3	5	2	10

Kostyuk
	R1 Boulter	R2 Sonmez	R3 Parry	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	7-5 6-75 6-3	3-6 6-4 6-2
Tot Set	2	3	3	8
Tot Games	20	34	27	81
pts	73-63	111-102	104-90	288-255
Total points	136	213	194	543
Winners	26	46	35	107
%Winners	36%	41%	34%	37%
SERVE
Aces	9	6	3	18
Double Faults	5	13	6	24
1st in	38/66	61/110	48/87	147/263
% 1st in	58%	55%	55%	56%
1st pts	26/38	46/61	35/48	107/147
% 1st pts	68%	75%	73%	73%
2nd pts	16/28	20/49	20/39	56/116
% 2nd pts	57%	41%	51%	48%
Breaks
Won	4	7	5	16
Converted	4/9	7/14	5/16	16/39
Converted %	44%	50%	31%	41%
Conceded	10	16	7	33
Saved	8/10	12/16	4/7	24
Saved %	80%	75%	57%	71%
Times Broken	2	4	3	9

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Elena RybakinaRybakina (6-4 5-7 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Cristina BucsaBucsa (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Taylor TownsendTownsend (1-6 7-6¹³ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Ann LiLi (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Cori GauffGauff (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (5-4) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (1-2) – H2H and prediction