Iga Swiatek and Ekaterina Alexandrova will face off in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 7^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.41
Ekaterina Alexandrova -> 2.91

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

This will be the 7^th time that Iga Swiatek and Ekaterina Alexandrova face off. The head to head is 4-2 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), but Alexandrova leads 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-4 7-6(5) in the quarter in Bad Homburg back in June 2025.

Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Ekaterina Alexandrova – Bad Homburg 26-June-2025

Iga Swiatek

Ranked no. 2, the Pole reached the 4^th round after beating Emiliana Arango 6-1 6-2, Suzan Lamens 6-1 4-6 6-4 and Anna Kalinskaya 7-6(2) 6-4.

In the 3^rd round, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Kalinskaya (7-6² 6-4). During the match, Swiatek scored 88 points vs Kalinskaya’s 77. Iga was very aggressive to blast 22 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek blasted 4 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Iga Swiatek lost the serve 4 times and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Swiatek put 43% of her first serves in, winning 76% (22/29) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (19/38) on the 2nd serve. The Pole broke Kalinskaya 5 times after converting 42% of her break points (5/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Iga has dropped 1 set in this event to win 56% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (401-88). 31-7 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has a composed 193-49 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title at the Wimbledon where she defeated Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-0 6-0 and in Cincinnati where she overcame Jasmine Paolini in the final 7-5 6-4.

Iga has an aggregate 52-12 win-loss record in 2025, 31-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ranked no. 12 (career-high), Alexandrova got to the 4^th round after beating Anastasija Sevastova 6-4 6-1, Xinyu Wang 6-2 6-2 and Laura Siegemund 6-0 6-1.

In the 3^rd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Siegemund (6-0 6-1). During the match Alexandrova scored 57 points vs Siegemund’s 29. Ekaterina was exceptionally aggressive to blast 19 winners.

About the serving games, Alexandrova fired 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Ekaterina Alexandrova lost the serve once and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Alexandrova put 60% of her first serves in, winning 61% (19/31) of the points behind her 1st serve and 67% (14/21) on the 2nd serve. Ekaterina broke Siegemund 6 times after converting 67% of her break points (6/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Russian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 62% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Linz where she overcame Dayana Yastremska in the final 6-2 3-6 7-5.

Alexandrova has an overall 38-18 win-loss record in 2025, 13-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023 and 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Swiatek	Alexandrova
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	6
Tot Games	65	46
Pts	235-187	183-114
Total Points	422	297
Winners	82	67
%Winners	35%	37%

Both Swiatek and Alexandrova played 3 matches. At the moment, Iga Swiatek dropped 1 set while Ekaterina Alexandrova hasn’t lost a set so far. Swiatek has played 1 set more than Alexandrova (7 vs 6). Therefore, Swiatek played 19 games more than Alexandrova. Iga scored 82 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Alexandrova blasted 67 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Swiatek	Alexandrova
Aces	12	11
Avg per match	4	3.7
1st in	110/193	100/147
%1st in	57%	68%
1st pts	82/110	67/100
%1st pts	75%	67%
2nd pts	41/83	27/47
%2nd pts	49%	57%

Swiatek scored 12 aces (4 per match). Alexandrova managed to score 11 aces (3.7 per match). Swiatek won 75% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 49% of the points. On the other side, Alexandrova won 67% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Swiatek	Alexandrova
Won	15	17
Converted	15/30	17/31
% Converted	50%	55%
Conceded	15	12
Saved	7	7
% Saved	47%	58%
Times Broken	8	5

The Pole broke her opponents 15 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Pole surrendered her serve 8 times and she saved 47% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. Alexandrova conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
	R1 Arango	R2 Lamens	R3 Kalinskaya	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-1 4-6 6-4	7-62 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	15	27	23	65
pts	54-32	93-78	88-77	235-187
Total points	86	171	165	422
Winners	23	37	22	82
%Winners	43%	40%	25%	35%
SERVE
Aces	1	7	4	12
Double Faults	3	4	5	12
1st in	26/42	55/84	29/67	110/193
% 1st in	62%	65%	43%	57%
1st pts	23/26	37/55	22/29	82/110
% 1st pts	88%	67%	76%	75%
2nd pts	9/16	13/29	19/38	41/83
% 2nd pts	56%	45%	50%	49%
Breaks
Won	4	6	5	15
Converted	4/6	6/12	5/12	15/30
Converted %	67%	50%	42%	50%
Conceded	0	9	6	15
Saved	0/0	5/9	2/6	7
Saved %	–	56%	33%	30%
Times Broken	0	4	4	8

Alexandrova
	R1 Sevastova	R2 Wang	R3 Siegemund	Total
Score	6-4 6-1	6-2 6-2	6-0 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	17	16	13	46
pts	66-45	60-40	57-29	183-114
Total points	111	100	86	297
Winners	25	23	19	67
%Winners	38%	38%	33%	37%
SERVE
Aces	1	6	4	11
Double Faults	1	0	2	3
1st in	36/51	33/44	31/52	100/147
% 1st in	71%	75%	60%	68%
1st pts	25/36	23/33	19/31	67/100
% 1st pts	69%	70%	61%	67%
2nd pts	8/15	5/11	14/21	27/47
% 2nd pts	53%	45%	67%	57%
Breaks
Won	5	6	6	17
Converted	5/8	6/14	6/9	17/31
Converted %	63%	43%	67%	55%
Conceded	4	2	6	12
Saved	2/4	0/2	5/6	7
Saved %	50%	0%	83%	44%
Times Broken	2	2	1	5

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Jessica PegulaPegula – Ann LiLi (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Elena RybakinaRybakina (6-4 5-7 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Cristina BucsaBucsa (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Taylor TownsendTownsend (1-6 7-6¹³ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Cori GauffGauff (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (2-4) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (5-4) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (1-2) – H2H and prediction