Jannik Sinner and Alexander Bublik will square off in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 7^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 7:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.061
Alexander Bublik -> 9

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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Bublik

This will be the 7^th time that Jannik Sinner and Alexander Bublik play each other. The head to head is 4-2 for Sinner (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Bublik won 3-6 6-3 6-4 in the 2^nd round in Halle back in June 2025.

Highlights Alexander Bublik vs Jannik Sinner – Halle 19-June-2025

Jannik Sinner

Currently world no. 1 Sinner got to the 4^th round after defeating Vit Kopriva 6-1 6-1 6-2, Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-2 6-2 and Denis Shapovalov 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3.

In the 3^rd round against Shapovalov, Sinner recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3). During the match, Sinner scored 128 points vs Shapovalov’s 108. The Italian was quite aggressive to blast 54 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sinner fired 2 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Jannik Sinner lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sinner put 58% of his first serves in, winning 84% (54/64) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (23/46) on the 2nd serve. Jannik broke Shapovalov 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sinner has surrendered 1 set in this event to conquer 59% of the points he played.

Sinner has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 75% of his matches (380-125). 15-1 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sinner has an aggregate153-47 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the year was winning the title at the Australian Open where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 and at the Wimbledon where he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4.

The Italian has a composed 34-4 win-loss record in 2025, 15-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Alexander Bublik

Ranked no. 24, the Kazakhstani reached the 4^th round after defeating Marin Cilic 6-4 6-1 6-4, Tristan Schoolkate 6-3 6-3 6-3 and Tommy Paul 7-6(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1.

In the 3^rd round, Bublik had a tough win against Paul to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (7-6⁵ 6-7⁴ 6-3 6-7⁵ 6-1). During the match Bublik scored 179 points vs Paul’s 160. Bublik was quite aggressive to blast 91 winners.

Talking about serving, Bublik buried his opponent with 22 aces and he was not very steady on his 2nd serve to score 12 double faults. Alexander Bublik was pretty efficient on serve to win 83% (91/110) of his 1st serve and 52% (36/69) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Kazakhstani broke Paul 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alexander has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Turin Challenger where he defeated Bu Yunchaokete in the final 6-3 6-3 and in Halle where he defeated Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and in Gstaad where he beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the final 6-4 4-6 6-3 and in Kitzbuhel where he beat Arthur Cazaux in the final 6-4 6-3.

Bublik has a compiled 38-17 win-loss record in 2025, 8-7 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2019. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sinner	Bublik
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	10	11
Tot Games	87	109
Pts	307-216	363-301
Total Points	523	664
Winners	120	181
%Winners	39%	50%

Both Sinner and Bublik played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jannik Sinner surrendered 1 set, while Alexander Bublik surrendered 2 sets. Sinner has played 1 set(s) less than Bublik (10 vs 11). Therefore, Sinner played 22 games less than Bublik. Jannik scored 120 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Alexander recorded 181 winners (50%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sinner	Bublik
Aces	15	54
Avg per match	5	18
1st in	145/259	211/347
%1st in	56%	61%
1st pts	120/145	181/211
%1st pts	83%	86%
2nd pts	62/114	66/136
%2nd pts	54%	49%

Sinner struck 15 aces (5 per match). Bublik scored 54 aces (18 per match). Sinner won 83% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 86% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sinner	Bublik
Won	18	11
Converted	18/32	11/23
% Converted	56%	48%
Conceded	13	12
Saved	10	12
% Saved	77%	100%
Times Broken	3	0

Sinner broke his opponents 18 times with a 56% conversion rate. Jannik surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 77% of the break points that he conceded. Bublik broke his opponents 11 times with a 48% conversion rate. Alexander was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 12 break points.

Sinner
	R1 Kopriva	R2 Popyrin	R3 Shapovalov	Total
Score	6-1 6-1 6-2	6-3 6-2 6-2	5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	4	10
Tot Games	22	25	40	87
pts	84-47	95-61	128-108	307-216
Total points	131	156	236	523
Winners	33	33	54	120
%Winners	39%	35%	42%	39%
SERVE
Aces	7	6	2	15
Double Faults	1	4	5	10
1st in	40/68	41/81	64/110	145/259
% 1st in	59%	51%	58%	56%
1st pts	33/40	33/41	54/64	120/145
% 1st pts	83%	80%	84%	83%
2nd pts	15/28	24/40	23/46	62/114
% 2nd pts	54%	60%	50%	54%
Breaks
Won	7	5	6	18
Converted	7/10	5/9	6/13	18/32
Converted %	70%	56%	46%	56%
Conceded	2	5	6	13
Saved	2/2	5/5	3/6	10
Saved %	100%	100%	50%	83%
Times Broken	0	0	3	3

Bublik
	R1 Cilic	R2 Schoolkate	R3 Paul	Total
Score	6-4 6-1 6-4	6-3 6-3 6-3	7-65 6-74 6-3 6-75 6-1
Tot Set	3	3	5	11
Tot Games	27	27	55	109
pts	90-67	94-74	179-160	363-301
Total points	157	168	339	664
Winners	42	48	91	181
%Winners	47%	51%	51%	50%
SERVE
Aces	16	16	22	54
Double Faults	4	6	12	22
1st in	44/79	57/89	110/179	211/347
% 1st in	56%	64%	61%	61%
1st pts	42/44	48/57	91/110	181/211
% 1st pts	95%	84%	83%	86%
2nd pts	16/35	14/32	36/69	66/136
% 2nd pts	46%	44%	52%	49%
Breaks
Won	4	4	3	11
Converted	4/9	4/6	3/8	11/23
Converted %	44%	67%	38%	48%
Conceded	2	4	6	12
Saved	2/2	4/4	6/6	12
Saved %	100%	100%	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0	0	0

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Taylor FritzFritz – Tomas MachacMachac (6-4 6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-3 6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (7-6³ 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (7-6⁴ 6-4 2-6 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (10-0) – H2H and prediction
• Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime – Andrey RublevRublev (1-7) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alexander BublikBublik (4-2) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (1-4) – H2H and prediction