Guy Den Ouden and Gilles Arnaud Bailly will play each other in the final of the Porto 2 Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:00 am on CENTRAL. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Guy Den Ouden who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Guy Den Ouden is the pick to win this match.
Guy Den Ouden -> 1.42
Gilles Arnaud Bailly -> 2.7

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Prediction and head to head Guy Den Ouden vs. Gilles Arnaud Bailly

This will be the 2^nd time that Guy Den Ouden and Gilles Arnaud Bailly play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Den Ouden (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Den Ouden won 6-4 6-2 in the quarter in M25 Koksijde back in 2024.

Guy Den Ouden

Ranked no. 161, Den Ouden got to the final after beating Mili Poljicak 6-3 1-6 6-2, Francisco Rocha 6-3 6-4, Daniel Michalski 4-6 6-4 6-4 and Frederico Ferreira Silva 6-3 6-3.

In the semifinal, Guy had a good straight sets win against Ferreira Silva (6-3 6-3). During the match, Den Ouden scored 67 points vs Ferreira Silva’s 44. The Dutch was very aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Regarding the service games, Den Ouden recorded 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Guy Den Ouden was quite effective on serve to win 73% (27/37) of his 1st serve and 61% (11/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Den Ouden broke Ferreira Silva 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Guy has conceded 2 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points he played.

Den Ouden has a solid record in the last 6 years having won 68% of his matches (183-88). 43-13 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Den Ouden has a compiled111-45 record in the last 6 years on clay.

Guy’s best result of the year was reaching the final in M25 Antalya,the Kigali 2 Challenger,M25 Santa Margherita di Pula,the Prague Challenger,the Heilbronn Challenger and the Hagen Challenger.

Guy has an aggregate 44-16 win-loss record in 2025, 43-13 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Porto 2 Challenger

Guy has never competed in this tournament before.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Ranked no. 341 (career-high), the Belgian got to the final after beating Maxim Mrva 6-1 6-2, Pedro Araujo 6-0 6-1, Nicolas Alvarez Varona 6-2 3-6 6-4 and Alejandro Moro Canas 6-4 1-6 6-3.

In the semifinal, Arnaud Bailly defeated Moro Canas (6-4 1-6 6-3).During the match Arnaud Bailly scored less points (2) than Moro Canas. In fact, the world no. 161 won 91 points vs Moro Canas’s. That means that Arnaud Bailly was more focused during the important points. Gilles was extremely aggressive to blast 37 winners.

About the serving games, Arnaud Bailly scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Gilles Arnaud Bailly lost the serve 3 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Arnaud Bailly put 55% of his first serves in, winning 67% (37/55) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (21/45) on the 2nd serve. The Belgian broke Moro Canas 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Gilles has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

The Belgian’s best result of the year was getting to the final in M15 Monastir,M15 Antalya,M15 Oegstgeest,M25 Uriage and M25 Koksijde.

The Belgian has an overall 52-18 win-loss record in 2025, 33-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Den Ouden	Arnaud Bailly
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	10
Tot Games	91	81
Pts	325-273	295-229
Total Points	598	524
Winners	133	101
%Winners	41%	34%

Both Den Ouden and Arnaud Bailly played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Guy Den Ouden lost 2 sets, while Gilles Arnaud Bailly conceded 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Den Ouden and Arnaud Bailly have played the same amount of sets 10. However, Den Ouden played 10 games more than Arnaud Bailly. Den Ouden scored 133 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Gilles scored 101 winners (34%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Den Ouden	Arnaud Bailly
Aces	10	7
Avg per match	2.5	1.8
1st in	187/294	145/258
%1st in	64%	56%
1st pts	133/187	101/145
%1st pts	71%	70%
2nd pts	60/107	62/113
%2nd pts	56%	55%

Den Ouden bagged 10 aces (2.5 per match). Arnaud Bailly managed to score 7 aces (1.8 per match). Den Ouden won 71% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Arnaud Bailly won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Den Ouden	Arnaud Bailly
Won	15	21
Converted	15/36	21/42
% Converted	42%	50%
Conceded	21	25
Saved	13	17
% Saved	62%	68%
Times Broken	8	8

Guy broke his opponents 15 times with a 42% conversion rate. Den Ouden surrendered his serve 8 times and he saved 62% of the break points that he conceded. Arnaud Bailly broke his opponents 21 times with a 50% conversion rate. Arnaud Bailly conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.

Den Ouden
	R1 Poljicak	R2 Rocha	1/4 Michalski	1/2 Ferreira Silva	Total
Score	6-3 1-6 6-2	6-3 6-4	4-6 6-4 6-4	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	3	2	10
Tot Games	24	19	30	18	91
pts	86-82	69-55	103-92	67-44	325-273
Total points	168	124	195	111	598
Winners	39	24	43	27	133
%Winners	45%	35%	42%	40%	41%
SERVE
Aces	1	0	4	5	10
Double Faults	7	2	2	3	14
1st in	54/82	39/66	57/91	37/55	187/294
% 1st in	66%	59%	63%	67%	64%
1st pts	39/54	24/39	43/57	27/37	133/187
% 1st pts	72%	62%	75%	73%	71%
2nd pts	11/28	18/27	20/34	11/18	60/107
% 2nd pts	39%	67%	59%	61%	56%
Breaks
Won	4	4	3	4	15
Converted	4/11	4/6	3/11	4/8	15/36
Converted %	36%	67%	27%	50%	42%
Conceded	8	4	6	3	21
Saved	5/8	2/4	4/6	2/3	13
Saved %	63%	50%	67%	67%	62%
Times Broken	3	2	2	1	8

Arnaud Bailly
	R1 Mrva	R2 Araujo	1/4 Alvarez Varona	1/2 Moro Canas	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-0 6-1	6-2 3-6 6-4	6-4 1-6 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	3	3	10
Tot Games	15	13	27	26	81
pts	61-35	58-29	85-72	91-93	295-229
Total points	96	87	157	184	524
Winners	15	13	36	37	101
%Winners	25%	22%	42%	41%	34%
SERVE
Aces	0	1	5	1	7
Double Faults	1	0	1	1	3
1st in	26/44	20/39	44/75	55/100	145/258
% 1st in	59%	51%	59%	55%	56%
1st pts	15/26	13/20	36/44	37/55	101/145
% 1st pts	58%	65%	82%	67%	70%
2nd pts	11/18	14/19	16/31	21/45	62/113
% 2nd pts	61%	74%	52%	47%	55%
Breaks
Won	7	7	4	3	21
Converted	7/14	7/9	4/9	3/10	21/42
Converted %	50%	78%	44%	30%	50%
Conceded	4	5	5	11	25
Saved	2/4	4/5	3/5	8/11	17
Saved %	50%	80%	60%	73%	66%
Times Broken	2	1	2	3	8

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