Elena Rybakina and Marketa Vondrousova will square off in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 10:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.52
Marketa Vondrousova -> 2.53

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Prediction and head to head Elena Rybakina vs. Marketa Vondrousova

This will be the 3^rd time that Elena Rybakina and Marketa Vondrousova clash against each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Rybakina and Vondrousova (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Rybakina won 6-3 6-3 in the 4^th round in Rome back in 2023.

Highlights Elena Rybakina vs Marketa Vondrousova – Rome 15-May-2023

Elena Rybakina

Ranked no. 10, Elena reached the 4^th round after defeating Julieta Pareja 6-3 6-0, Tereza Valentova 6-3 7-6(7) and Emma Raducanu 6-1 6-2.

In the 3^rd round, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Raducanu (6-1 6-2). During the match, Rybakina scored 56 points vs Raducanu’s 35. Rybakina was extremely aggressive to blast 18 winners.

Talking about the service games, Rybakina made 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Elena Rybakina was exceptionally effective on serve to win 86% (18/21) of her 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Rybakina broke Raducanu 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Kazakhstani hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to win 59% of the points she played.

Rybakina has a great match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (369-157). 28-10 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Rybakina has an aggregate 177-80 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Strasbourg where she beat Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-7(2) 6-1.

Rybakina has a composed 44-16 win-loss record in 2025, 28-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Marketa Vondrousova

Ranked no. 60, Marketa got to the 4^th round after beating Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3 7-6(3), Mccartney Kessler 7-6(7) 6-2 and Jasmine Paolini 7-6(4) 6-1.

In the 3^rd round, The Czech had a good straight sets win against Paolini (7-6⁴ 6-1). During the match Vondrousova scored 73 points vs Paolini’s 62. Marketa was pretty aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about serving, Vondrousova fired 6 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Marketa Vondrousova was quite efficient on serve to win 73% (33/45) of her 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Vondrousova broke Paolini twice after converting 25% of her break points (2/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Vondrousova hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Berlin where she beat Xinyu Wang in the final 7-6(10) 4-6 6-2.

The Czech has a composed 17-8 win-loss record in 2025, 9-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See her history

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Rybakina	Vondrousova
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	6	6
Tot Games	52	63
Pts	193-136	251-209
Total Points	329	460
Winners	68	96
%Winners	35%	38%

Both Rybakina and Vondrousova played 3 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Rybakina and Vondrousova have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Rybakina played 11 games less than Vondrousova. Rybakina scored 68 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech bagged 96 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Rybakina	Vondrousova
Aces	14	14
Avg per match	4.7	4.7
1st in	83/160	138/232
%1st in	52%	59%
1st pts	68/83	96/138
%1st pts	82%	70%
2nd pts	42/77	44/94
%2nd pts	55%	47%

Rybakina fired 14 aces (4.7 per match). Vondrousova struck 14 aces (4.7 per match). Rybakina won 82% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Vondrousova won 70% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Rybakina	Vondrousova
Won	12	13
Converted	12/25	13/30
% Converted	48%	43%
Conceded	9	21
Saved	6	13
% Saved	67%	62%
Times Broken	3	8

The Kazakhstani broke her opponents 12 times with a 48% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. Marketa broke her opponents 13 times with a 43% conversion rate. Marketa conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded.

Rybakina
	R1 Pareja	R2 Valentova	R3 Raducanu	Total
Score	6-3 6-0	6-3 7-67	6-1 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	15	22	15	52
pts	61-33	76-68	56-35	193-136
Total points	94	144	91	329
Winners	21	29	18	68
%Winners	34%	38%	32%	35%
SERVE
Aces	7	4	3	14
Double Faults	2	2	3	7
1st in	21/38	41/77	21/45	83/160
% 1st in	55%	53%	47%	52%
1st pts	21/21	29/41	18/21	68/83
% 1st pts	100%	71%	86%	82%
2nd pts	11/17	16/36	15/24	42/77
% 2nd pts	65%	44%	63%	55%
Breaks
Won	4	4	4	12
Converted	4/9	4/7	4/9	12/25
Converted %	44%	57%	44%	48%
Conceded	0	9	0	9
Saved	0/0	6/9	0/0	6
Saved %	–	67%	–	22%
Times Broken	0	3	0	3

Vondrousova
	R1 Selekhmeteva	R2 Kessler	R3 Paolini	Total
Score	6-3 7-63	7-67 6-2	7-64 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	22	21	20	63
pts	91-69	87-78	73-62	251-209
Total points	160	165	135	460
Winners	32	31	33	96
%Winners	35%	36%	45%	38%
SERVE
Aces	4	4	6	14
Double Faults	12	9	4	25
1st in	45/78	48/85	45/69	138/232
% 1st in	58%	56%	65%	59%
1st pts	32/45	31/48	33/45	96/138
% 1st pts	71%	65%	73%	70%
2nd pts	13/33	17/37	14/24	44/94
% 2nd pts	39%	46%	58%	47%
Breaks
Won	6	5	2	13
Converted	6/10	5/12	2/8	13/30
Converted %	60%	42%	25%	43%
Conceded	10	9	2	21
Saved	5/10	6/9	2/2	13
Saved %	50%	67%	100%	72%
Times Broken	5	3	0	8

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Cori GauffGauff – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Linda NoskovaNoskova (6-7(5) 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Cristina BucsaBucsa – Elise MertensMertens (3-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-3 7-6²) – See score progression
• Taylor TownsendTownsend – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Ann LiLi – Priscilla HonHon (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Emma NavarroNavarro (4-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (7-6⁴ 6-1) – See score progression
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Dennis NovakNovak – Paul JubbJubb (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Jiri VeselyVesely (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Marcel GranollersGranollers – Gregoire BarrereBarrere (6-2 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Jason JungJung (7-6⁶ 6-4) – See score progression
• Antoine HoangHoang – Ruben BemelmansBemelmans (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Go SoedaSoeda – Marius CopilCopil (7-6⁵ 6-3) – See score progression
• Lukas RosolRosol – Mikael YmerYmer (6-3 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Cori GauffGauff – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-3 6-1) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Diane ParryParry – Marta KostyukKostyuk (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Maria SakkariSakkari (4-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Cristina BucsaBucsa (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Ann LiLi (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Taylor TownsendTownsend (1-0) – H2H and prediction