Aryna Sabalenka and Cristina Bucsa will square off in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 7:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.061
Cristina Bucsa -> 9

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cristina Bucsa

There is no head to head record between Aryna Sabalenka and Cristina Bucsa since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka got to the 4^th round after beating Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1, Polina Kudermetova 7-6(4) 6-2 and Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-3 7-6(2).

In the 3^rd round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Annie Fernandez (6-3 7-6²). During the match, Sabalenka scored 77 points vs Annie Fernandez’s 65. The Belarussian was pretty aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka made 6 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 63% of her first serves in, winning 79% (41/52) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (15/30) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Annie Fernandez once after converting 33% of her break points (1/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to win 55% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a marvellous win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 71% of her matches (427-178). 29-5 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate 256-97 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she overcame Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).

Aryna has a composed 53-10 win-loss record in 2025, 29-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Cristina Bucsa

Ranked no. 95, Cristina got to the 4^th round after defeating Claire Liu 6-2 6-1, Alexandra Eala 6-4 6-3 and Elise Mertens 3-6 7-5 6-3.

In the 3^rd round against Mertens, Cristina recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-5 6-3). During the match Bucsa scored 103 points vs Mertens’s 99. Bucsa was extremely aggressive to blast 43 winners.

Talking about serving, Bucsa managed to score 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Cristina Bucsa lost the serve 3 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Bucsa put 63% of her first serves in, winning 70% (43/61) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (18/36) on the 2nd serve. Bucsa broke Mertens 4 times after converting 29% of her break points (4/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Cristina has an overall 26-25 win-loss record in 2025, 16-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2022. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Bucsa
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	6	7
Tot Games	62	64
Pts	223-180	234-204
Total Points	403	438
Winners	99	94
%Winners	44%	40%

Both Sabalenka and Bucsa played 3 matches. At the moment, Cristina Bucsa conceded 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Bucsa (6 vs 7). Therefore, Sabalenka played 2 games less than Bucsa. Sabalenka scored 99 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Bucsa fired 94 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Bucsa
Aces	13	7
Avg per match	4.3	2.3
1st in	127/214	135/209
%1st in	59%	65%
1st pts	99/127	94/135
%1st pts	78%	70%
2nd pts	46/87	34/74
%2nd pts	53%	46%

Sabalenka struck 13 aces (4.3 per match). Bucsa made 7 aces (2.3 per match). Sabalenka won 78% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Bucsa won 70% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Bucsa
Won	8	15
Converted	8/13	15/41
% Converted	62%	37%
Conceded	19	23
Saved	17	17
% Saved	89%	74%
Times Broken	2	6

Aryna broke her opponents 8 times with a 62% conversion rate. The Belarussian surrendered her serve twice and she saved 89% of the break points that she conceded. The Spaniard broke her opponents 15 times with a 37% conversion rate. Bucsa conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 74% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R1 Masarova	R2 Kudermetova	R3 Annie	Total
Score	7-5 6-1	7-64 6-2	6-3 7-62
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	19	21	22	62
pts	66-47	80-68	77-65	223-180
Total points	113	148	142	403
Winners	23	35	41	99
%Winners	35%	44%	53%	44%
SERVE
Aces	2	5	6	13
Double Faults	2	5	4	11
1st in	30/57	45/75	52/82	127/214
% 1st in	53%	60%	63%	59%
1st pts	23/30	35/45	41/52	99/127
% 1st pts	77%	78%	79%	78%
2nd pts	17/27	14/30	15/30	46/87
% 2nd pts	63%	47%	50%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	3	1	8
Converted	4/5	3/5	1/3	8/13
Converted %	80%	60%	33%	62%
Conceded	6	9	4	19
Saved	5/6	8/9	4/4	17
Saved %	83%	89%	100%	91%
Times Broken	1	1	0	2

Bucsa
	R1 Liu	R2 Eala	R3 Mertens	Total
Score	6-2 6-1	6-4 6-3	3-6 7-5 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	15	19	30	64
pts	66-47	65-58	103-99	234-204
Total points	113	123	202	438
Winners	21	30	43	94
%Winners	32%	46%	42%	40%
SERVE
Aces	2	3	2	7
Double Faults	3	4	2	9
1st in	28/48	46/64	61/97	135/209
% 1st in	58%	72%	63%	65%
1st pts	21/28	30/46	43/61	94/135
% 1st pts	75%	65%	70%	70%
2nd pts	11/20	5/18	18/36	34/74
% 2nd pts	55%	28%	50%	46%
Breaks
Won	5	6	4	15
Converted	5/19	6/8	4/14	15/41
Converted %	26%	75%	29%	37%
Conceded	2	9	12	23
Saved	2/2	6/9	9/12	17
Saved %	100%	67%	75%	81%
Times Broken	0	3	3	6

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Cori GauffGauff – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Linda NoskovaNoskova (6-7(5) 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Taylor TownsendTownsend – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Ann LiLi – Priscilla HonHon (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Emma NavarroNavarro (4-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (7-6⁴ 6-1) – See score progression
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Cristina BucsaBucsa – Elise MertensMertens (3-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-3 7-6²) – See score progression
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Jiri VeselyVesely (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Marcel GranollersGranollers – Gregoire BarrereBarrere (6-2 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Jason JungJung (7-6⁶ 6-4) – See score progression
• Antoine HoangHoang – Ruben BemelmansBemelmans (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Go SoedaSoeda – Marius CopilCopil (7-6⁵ 6-3) – See score progression
• Lukas RosolRosol – Mikael YmerYmer (6-3 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Dennis NovakNovak – Paul JubbJubb (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
• Cori GauffGauff – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-3 6-1) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Diane ParryParry – Marta KostyukKostyuk (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Maria SakkariSakkari (4-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Cristina BucsaBucsa (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Ann LiLi (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Taylor TownsendTownsend (1-0) – H2H and prediction