Jessica Pegula and Ann Li will face off in the 4^th round of the U.S. Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:30 am on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.23
Ann Li -> 4.2

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Ann Li

This will be the 3^rd time that Jessica Pegula and Ann Li fight against each other. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Pegula won 6-3 7-6(3) in the 2^nd round in at the French Open back in May 2025.

Highlights Jessica Pegula vs Ann Li – French Open 29-May-2025

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 4, Jessica reached the 4^th round after beating Mayar Sherif 6-0 6-4, Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-3 and Victoria Azarenka 6-1 7-5.

In the 3^rd round, Jessica had a good straight sets win against Azarenka (6-1 7-5). During the match, Pegula scored 81 points vs Azarenka’s 59. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Pegula fired 5 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Jessica Pegula lost the serve twice and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 58% of her first serves in, winning 68% (25/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the 2nd serve. Jessica broke Azarenka 6 times after converting 40% of her break points (6/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to win 59% of the points she played.

Pegula has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (344-173). 25-9 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Pegula has an overall 229-99 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the year was winning the title in Austin where she overcame Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she defeated Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5 and in Bad Homburg where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 7-5.

Jessica has an aggregate 40-16 win-loss record in 2025, 25-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Ann Li

Ranked no. 58, Li got to the 4^th round after defeating Rebecca Sramkova 4-6 6-2 6-4, Belinda Bencic 6-3 6-3 and Priscilla Hon 7-5 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, Li had a good straight sets win against Hon (7-5 6-3). During the match Li scored 90 points vs Hon’s 74. Ann was extremely aggressive to blast 36 winners.

About the serving games, Li blasted 7 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Ann Li lost the serve 3 times and she saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Li put 66% of her first serves in, winning 60% (36/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 55% (17/31) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Hon 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Ann’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Singapore and Cleveland.

The American has a composed 26-20 win-loss record in 2025, 13-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2020. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Pegula	Li
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	6	7
Tot Games	51	67
Pts	204-141	249-204
Total Points	345	453
Winners	73	97
%Winners	36%	39%

Both Pegula and Li played 3 matches. At the moment, Ann Li dropped 1 set while Jessica Pegula hasn’t lost a set so far. Pegula has played 1 set(s) less than Li (6 vs 7). Therefore, Pegula played 16 games less than Li. Pegula scored 73 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The American managed to score 97 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Pegula	Li
Aces	8	22
Avg per match	2.7	7.3
1st in	104/172	148/233
%1st in	60%	64%
1st pts	73/104	97/148
%1st pts	70%	66%
2nd pts	32/68	46/85
%2nd pts	47%	54%

Pegula struck 8 aces (2.7 per match). Li struck 22 aces (7.3 per match). Pegula won 70% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Li won 66% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Pegula	Li
Won	18	15
Converted	18/35	15/35
% Converted	51%	43%
Conceded	17	27
Saved	11	19
% Saved	65%	70%
Times Broken	6	8

The American broke her opponents 18 times with a 51% conversion rate. The American dropped her serve 6 times and she saved 65% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 15 times with a 43% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
	R1 Sherif	R2 Blinkova	R3 Azarenka	Total
Score	6-0 6-4	6-1 6-3	6-1 7-5
Tot Set	2	2	2	6
Tot Games	16	16	19	51
pts	65-41	58-41	81-59	204-141
Total points	106	99	140	345
Winners	27	21	25	73
%Winners	42%	36%	31%	36%
SERVE
Aces	1	2	5	8
Double Faults	3	0	1	4
1st in	34/56	33/52	37/64	104/172
% 1st in	61%	63%	58%	60%
1st pts	27/34	21/33	25/37	73/104
% 1st pts	79%	64%	68%	70%
2nd pts	7/22	10/19	15/27	32/68
% 2nd pts	32%	53%	56%	47%
Breaks
Won	6	6	6	18
Converted	6/9	6/11	6/15	18/35
Converted %	67%	55%	40%	51%
Conceded	7	4	6	17
Saved	5/7	2/4	4/6	11
Saved %	71%	50%	67%	63%
Times Broken	2	2	2	6

Li
	R1 Sramkova	R2 Bencic	R3 Hon	Total
Score	4-6 6-2 6-4	6-3 6-3	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	28	18	21	67
pts	95-89	64-41	90-74	249-204
Total points	184	105	164	453
Winners	37	24	36	97
%Winners	39%	38%	40%	39%
SERVE
Aces	10	5	7	22
Double Faults	3	1	4	8
1st in	57/94	31/48	60/91	148/233
% 1st in	61%	65%	66%	64%
1st pts	37/57	24/31	36/60	97/148
% 1st pts	65%	77%	60%	66%
2nd pts	17/37	12/17	17/31	46/85
% 2nd pts	46%	71%	55%	54%
Breaks
Won	6	4	5	15
Converted	6/16	4/8	5/11	15/35
Converted %	38%	50%	45%	43%
Conceded	10	3	14	27
Saved	6/10	2/3	11/14	19
Saved %	60%	67%	79%	69%
Times Broken	4	1	3	8

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Linda NoskovaNoskova (6-7(5) 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Cori GauffGauff – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (7-6⁴ 6-1) – See score progression
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Taylor TownsendTownsend – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Cristina BucsaBucsa – Elise MertensMertens (3-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-3 7-6²) – See score progression
• Ann LiLi – Priscilla HonHon (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Emma NavarroNavarro (4-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
• Go SoedaSoeda – Marius CopilCopil (7-6⁵ 6-3) – See score progression
• Lukas RosolRosol – Mikael YmerYmer (6-3 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Dennis NovakNovak – Paul JubbJubb (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Jiri VeselyVesely (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Marcel GranollersGranollers – Gregoire BarrereBarrere (6-2 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Jason JungJung (7-6⁶ 6-4) – See score progression
• Antoine HoangHoang – Ruben BemelmansBemelmans (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Cori GauffGauff – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-3 6-1) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Diane ParryParry – Marta KostyukKostyuk (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Maria SakkariSakkari (4-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Cristina BucsaBucsa (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Ann LiLi (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Taylor TownsendTownsend (1-0) – H2H and prediction