Daria Kasatkina and Naomi Osaka will play each other in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 2:00 pm on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.34
Daria Kasatkina -> 3.26

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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Naomi Osaka

This will be the 3^rd time that Daria Kasatkina and Naomi Osaka square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Osaka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Osaka won 6-3 6-3 in the 3^rd round in Rome back in 2024.

Highlights Naomi Osaka vs Daria Kasatkina – Rome 11-May-2024

Daria Kasatkina

Ranked no. 18, the Australian got to the 3^rd round after beating Elena Gabriela Ruse 7-5 6-1 and Kamilla Rakhimova 6-2 4-6 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, Darya defeated Rakhimova (6-2 4-6 7-5). During the match, Kasatkina scored 99 points vs Rakhimova’s 93. Darya was extremely aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Talking about the service games, Kasatkina bagged 3 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve 6 times and she saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 64% of her first serves in, winning 61% (41/67) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (14/37) on the 2nd serve. The Australian broke Rakhimova 8 times after converting 67% of her break points (8/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Darya has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points she played.

Kasatkina has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 60% of her matches (318-211). 12-10 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Kasatkina has a composed 166-126 record in the last years on hard.

The Australian has an overall 19-19 win-loss record in 2025, 12-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Naomi Osaka

Ranked no. 24, Naomi got to the 3^rd round after beating Greetje Minnen 6-3 6-4 and Hailey Baptiste 6-3 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, Osaka had a good straight sets win against Baptiste (6-3 6-1). During the match Osaka scored 61 points vs Baptiste’s 39. The Japanese was very aggressive to blast 20 winners.

About the serving games, Osaka recorded 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Naomi Osaka lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Osaka put 60% of her first serves in, winning 69% (20/29) of the points behind her 1st serve and 63% (12/19) on the 2nd serve. Osaka broke Baptiste 5 times after converting 63% of her break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Japanese hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 60% of the points she played.

Her best result of the year was winning the title the Malo where she overcame Kaja Juvan in the final 6-1 7-5.

The Japanese has a compiled 29-12 win-loss record in 2025, 18-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, she won this tournament twice in 2018 and 2020. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Kasatkina	Osaka
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	5	4
Tot Games	49	35
Pts	165-136	130-88
Total Points	301	218
Winners	60	46
%Winners	36%	35%

Both Kasatkina and Osaka played 2 matches. At the moment, Daria Kasatkina lost 1 set while Naomi Osaka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Kasatkina has played 1 set more than Osaka (5 vs 4). Therefore, Kasatkina played 14 games more than Osaka. Kasatkina scored 60 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Osaka struck 46 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Kasatkina	Osaka
Aces	5	11
Avg per match	2.5	5.5
1st in	100/157	67/113
%1st in	64%	59%
1st pts	60/100	46/67
%1st pts	60%	69%
2nd pts	24/57	24/46
%2nd pts	42%	52%

Kasatkina made 5 aces (2.5 per match). Osaka made 11 aces (5.5 per match). Kasatkina won 60% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 42% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Kasatkina	Osaka
Won	16	11
Converted	16/25	11/14
% Converted	64%	79%
Conceded	21	10
Saved	11	6
% Saved	52%	60%
Times Broken	10	4

Kasatkina broke her opponents 16 times with a 64% conversion rate. Darya conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 52% of the break points that she conceded. Osaka broke her opponents 11 times with a 79% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded.

Kasatkina
	R1 Gabriela Ruse	R2 Rakhimova	Total
Score	7-5 6-1	6-2 4-6 7-5
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	19	30	49
pts	66-43	99-93	165-136
Total points	109	192	301
Winners	19	41	60
%Winners	29%	41%	36%
SERVE
Aces	2	3	5
Double Faults	8	7	15
1st in	33/53	67/104	100/157
% 1st in	62%	64%	64%
1st pts	19/33	41/67	60/100
% 1st pts	58%	61%	60%
2nd pts	10/20	14/37	24/57
% 2nd pts	50%	38%	42%
Breaks
Won	8	8	16
Converted	8/13	8/12	16/25
Converted %	62%	67%	64%
Conceded	6	15	21
Saved	2/6	9/15	11
Saved %	33%	60%	47%
Times Broken	4	6	10

Osaka
	R1 Minnen	R2 Baptiste	Total
Score	6-3 6-4	6-3 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	19	16	35
pts	69-49	61-39	130-88
Total points	118	100	218
Winners	26	20	46
%Winners	38%	33%	35%
SERVE
Aces	7	4	11
Double Faults	0	1	1
1st in	38/65	29/48	67/113
% 1st in	58%	60%	59%
1st pts	26/38	20/29	46/67
% 1st pts	68%	69%	69%
2nd pts	12/27	12/19	24/46
% 2nd pts	44%	63%	52%
Breaks
Won	6	5	11
Converted	6/6	5/8	11/14
Converted %	100%	63%	79%
Conceded	7	3	10
Saved	4/7	2/3	6
Saved %	57%	67%	62%
Times Broken	3	1	4

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (7-6⁴ 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (6-1 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Ann LiLi – Priscilla HonHon (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Cristina BucsaBucsa – Elise MertensMertens (3-6 7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-3 7-6²) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Emma NavarroNavarro (4-6 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Taylor TownsendTownsend – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (7-5 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Go SoedaSoeda – Marius CopilCopil (7-6⁵ 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Lukas RosolRosol – Mikael YmerYmer (6-3 7-6⁴) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Dennis NovakNovak – Paul JubbJubb (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (6-2 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Jiri VeselyVesely (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Marcel GranollersGranollers – Gregoire BarrereBarrere (6-2 3-6 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Dominik KoepferKoepfer – Jason JungJung (7-6⁶ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Antoine HoangHoang – Ruben BemelmansBemelmans (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Diane ParryParry – Marta KostyukKostyuk (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Magdalena FrechFrech – Cori GauffGauff (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Jaqueline CristianCristian (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Maria SakkariSakkari (4-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Cristina BucsaBucsa (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Ann LiLi (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Taylor TownsendTownsend (1-0) – H2H and prediction